Is World Series Game 4 a Must Win for Diamondbacks?

When the Diamondbacks play the Rangers tonight at Chase Field in game four of the 2023 World Series it won't be an elimination game, but down in the series 2-1, this might be classified as a must win game. In 118 previous World Series, a team down three games to one has come back to win the series just six times, or about 5% of the time.

The Diamondbacks have specialized in coming back from "nonzero" chances to defy the odds all year. On August 11th FanGraphs had their odds to make the playoffs at just 13.4%. That was the lowest point of the season since April 12th. They had gone from 48-32, 16 games over .500 to 57-59, two games under in the span of just 36 games, and it seemed like their playoff hopes were effectively over. A 27-19 stretch got them into the playoffs as the final Wild Card however, showing the team that had been dubbed the "Answerbacks" remained a resilient bunch.

After upsetting the Brewers and Dodgers by unexpectedly sweeping both teams out of the Wild Card and Divisional rounds, they fell down to the Phillies 2-0 in the NLCS. Just 16% of teams down 2-0 in a seven game postseason series had come back to win those series. Once again the D-backs defied those long odds to win the series by taking two out of three at home and then winning games six and seven in Philadelphia.

Compounding the degree of difficulty tonight is the fact that the D-backs will be trying to win Game 4 by running out another bullpen game. Lacking a reliable fourth starter, the team utilized eight pitchers in game four of the NLCS, beginning with Joe Mantiply for one inning. No D-backs pitcher recorded more than six outs in the game. They came back from a 5-3 deficit to score three runs in 8th to win it 6-5.

The Diamondbacks will have to pull out something similar tonight, starting with Mantiply again. The D-backs chances are helped by who they'll face. Andrew Heaney is starting for the Rangers, and he has been anything but reliable for Texas. Used mostly in relief this postseason, his lone "start" lasted just seven batters in which he gave up three runs and recorded just two outs. It's possible the Rangers will also be without slugging right-fielder Adolis Garcia, who left last night's game with what appeared to be an oblique injury. Garcia went to receive an MRI and the results are not known at this time, but it's probable he'll miss at least a game or two.

If the D-backs can win tonight, then it becomes a best of three series. With two of those games in Texas, the betting odds would still favor the Rangers. Texas has been a much better road than home team so far in the postseason however. They are 9-0 on the road, and 2-4 at home. The D-backs have played well on the road this postseason as well, going 8-3 in the opposing parks while splitting their four home games so far.

It would be tempting fate to lose tonight and go down 3-1. That would represent the longest odds yet for the team to stave off elimination. Then again, perhaps the story we get to write will be that much more incredible if the Diamondbacks can do the near impossible one more time.

D-backs Searching for a Win As NLCS Moves to Chase Field