Diamondbacks at Cubs Preview: Can Gallen Get Back on Track?

The Diamondbacks are in Chicago to play game two of a four game set against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Game time today is 11:20 MST, 1:20 P.M. CST. The D-backs took game one, 6-2 behind good pitching from Ryne Nelson and big nights from Tommy Pham and Ketel Marte.

The D-backs enter play today with a slim 0.5 game lead over the Marlins and Reds for the third NL Wild Card spot. They trail the Cubs by three games for the second Wild Card position. These two teams have six head to head games remaining including today.

Pitching Matchup

Zac Gallen spent much of the 2023 as either the favorite or one of the top three candidates for the NL Cy Young award. He was having a strong August going 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in five starts before disaster struck in his last two outings. First he got hammered in LA against the Dodgers and then again back home against the Orioles. The script was similar both times, giving up runs early, then seeming to settle down, before running out of gas in the 6th. In the two outings he gave up 11 runs in 10.2 innings, allowing 17 hits including four homers. His ERA jumped from 3.11 to 3.48 in the process.

Gallen sometimes likes to wear the hat brand "Don't Trip" after a rough outing, as a reminder to himself, and perhaps the media interviewing him not to over react. That's good advice. Gallen has proven over and over again he is more than capable of getting on a great run. He has at least four, maybe five starts left this season to help pitch his team into the playoffs, and back into the NL Cy Young race while he's at it. First things first however, he'll need to pitch well on the road today, something he's not done well in 2023. He is 3-5 with a 4.81 ERA on the road. His last start in Wrigley Field came May 19th, 2022 when he picked up a win going five innings allowing one run.

Jameson Taillon has not pitched well in 2023 for the Cubs. A well timed bounce back season with the Yankees last year, (14-5, 3.91 ERA) earned him a four year, $68 million free contract with the Cubs. He got off to a bad start and had a 6.93 ERA through July 2nd. A good six start run lowered his ERA to 5.17, but he's been hit hard in three of his last five outings, most recently giving up five runs in 5.2 innings in Cincinnati against the Reds.

Taillon still throws pretty hard, with an average four seam fastball velocity of 93.7 MPH. His primary secondary is the cutter, which he'll throw equally to both lefties and righties. Both the four seam and cutter have been hit hard this year with a .576 and .535 slugging against respectively. His most effective pitch this year has been the curveball to left hand batters. He has a .213 BA against on the curve. He uses a sweeper and sinker against right hand batters, with mixed results. Taillon has allowed a .883 OPS to LHB, and .698 to RHB. That split shows that while the curve has been a good pitch, he often can't get to it. LHB are crushing his fastball. He also has .887 OPS at home compared to a .680 OPS on the road.

Lineups

The D-backs lineup used to be left hand dominated, but with the current roster construction we see just two left hand batters and two switch hitters posted by Torey Lovullo today. Tommy Pham, who hit two homers last night is five for his last nine with five RBI. He's also 8-for-20, with four doubles against Taillon in his career, including four for six last year with two doubles. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is just 1-16, .083 against Taillon over the previous two seasons.

Cody Bellinger is just 1-17, .059 with seven strikeouts against Zac Gallen in his career, the lone hit a triple back in 2019. Yan Gomes hurt Gallen last year going 2-4 with a double and a homer.

Bullpens

Due to Joe Mantiply's ineffectiveness in the 9th inning last night Paul Sewald had to get up and throw. While he needed just four pitches to record the final out, the warmup pitches in the pen and mound count towards his usage matrix that the team logs, and as such may play a role later in the series. He should be available for a save situation tonight however.

The Cubs only used one reliever last night, Hayden Wesneski, and the remainder of their pen is well rested. Perhaps too well in fact. Closer Adbert Alzolay has not pitched since blowing a save on September 1st in the second game of a double header.