Game #49 Preview: Ryne Nelson On the Hot Seat?

The Diamondbacks (28-20) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (22-25) for the second game of a three-game series at Citizen's Bank Park. After a statement win in the opening game of the series, the D-backs look to capture their fourth straight series win.

Pitching Matchup

Ryne Nelson (1-2, 5.48 ERA) has not had the rookie season he imagined, as he's limped to a 5.48 ERA in his first nine starts. After an impressive three-start debut in 2022, Nelson has experienced a lot of growing pains. He was able to right the ship somewhat in his last start, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Oakland Athletics. He looked dominant for the first five innings, but ran out of gas in the sixth inning. The next step will be to complete the sixth inning, not just start it.

In his last three starts, his mechanics have tightened up and it has shown as Nelson's fastball velocity has jumped from 93.9 MPH to 95.2 MPH. He's had trouble executing his secondary pitches from the beginning of spring, although his main approach is using the cutter and slider to right-handed hitters and relying on the curveball and changeup to left-handed hitters. His cutter, slider, and changeup have yielded good results at the plate when he's able to sequence them into his plan of attac.

With recent developments in Reno, Nelson could be on the hot seat for a rotation spot. While his spot isn't likely to be affected by Zach Davies' return from the injured list, Drey Jameson's recent success is still worth noting. Jameson has completed six innings in each of his last three starts, pitching to a 3.50 ERA and a 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio. With the two pitchers both scheduled to throw today, another poor start by Nelson could have the organization making the switch.

On the other side, Matt Strahm (4-3, 2.73 ERA) has been a godsend for a Philadelphia rotation that has been decimated with injuries. While primarily serving in a relief role since the 2019 season, he made six starts for Philadelphia this year. With fellow lefty Bailey Falter recently demoted to Triple-A, Strahm will be tasked again to fill a rotation spot after four relief appearances. In those appearances, he's never thrown more than 40 pitches, so expect him to have a short start.

His plan of attack on the mound is to bully right-handed hitters inside with four-seam fastballs and sliders, but keeps them honest with sinkers away. Opposing hitters have had issues getting to his fastball and slider combination, hitting .118 and .182 against his bread and butter pitches. Arizona hitters should have an idea of which side of the plate to attack, then it becomes a matter of selecting which pitch to attack between the four-seamer and the slider.

After Strahm, the Phillies will send right-hander Dylan Covey in to eat up innings. The former starter signed with the Dodgers after two years in China. After one appearance with Los Angeles, he was designated for assignment and claimed by Philadelphia. In his lone appearance, he utilized a sinker and cutter as his primary pitches. Those two offerings accounted for 49 of the 63 pitches he threw.

Lineups

Game Notes

With Strahm playing the role of an opener for a bullpen game, the team has elected to start Perdomo at shortstop instead of Nick Ahmed. That may have to do with Covey coming in as the bulk pitcher.

Evan Longoria has mightily struggled in his last 20 games. Since April 8th, Longoria is hitting .156 with three home runs, three walks, and 26 strikeouts in his last 68 plate appearances. The strikeouts have been a huge problem, as it's a case of either being beat by velocity or being extra vulnerable to off-speed pitches to cheat on the fastball.

Expect Pavin Smith to come off the bench at some point at the DH spot when Covey comes into the game. The right-handed hitting Longoria is hitting .139 with a .552 OPS against right-handed pitchers while the left-handed hitting Smith is hitting .263 with a .828 OPS.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a 15-game hitting streak into this game. During that stretch he is hitting .417 with six doubles, seven home runs, eight walks, and a 1.360 OPS. The 29-year-old outfielder is enjoying his best season at the plate so far, with a .321 batting average and .938 OPS (156 OPS+) in 43 games.

Health Updates

The D-backs will make a decision on activating Davies off the IL after his bullpen session on Wednesday. In his rehab start with Amarillo, he was able to throw 69 pitches in 4 2/3 innings. The D-backs are hoping Davies can add some stability to the rotation, which has utilized three relatively inexperienced pitchers for the past month.