D-backs vs. Padres Series Preview and Pitching Matchups

The Diamondbacks (57-58) host the San Diego Padres (55-60) this weekend for a three game series at Chase Field. It is the first time the two teams have met since April 22nd. San Diego holds the edge in the head to head season series so far, having won four of the six games they played in April.

This is a crucial series for two teams struggling to stay in the NL Wild Card hunt. The Diamondbacks fall from first place has been well documented. Currently in the midst of an eight game losing streak, they were 50-34 on July 1st and held a 3.0 game lead on the Dodgers in the NL West. In a historic collapse they've since gone 7-24 to fall hopelessly behind the Dodgers 11.5 games back in the division. They are now a long shot to even make the playoffs, 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race with three teams in front of them.

The Padres have been a massive disappointment all year long. After spending heavily this past off season in free agency and sporting the 5th largest payroll in MLB at $236 million, they were expected to be serious contenders to dethrone the Dodgers in the NL West. Instead they limp into Chase Field losers of five of their last six games, and sit five games under .500 in 4th place in the NL West and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card.

The Padres have a positive run differential of +56, giving them an "expected" record of 63-52, a full eight games better than their actual record. The talent is there of course, but they have a horrific 6-18 record in one run games. That level of failure in close games is made all the more remarkable by the fact that closer Josh Hader is having a great season, with 26 saves and just four blown, to go with a 0.82 ERA. They also have the 6th best team fielding percentage and 3rd most defensive runs saved in MLB, so with a great closer and highly rated defense, such a one run games record doesn't make much sense. But their vaunted lineup is batting just .193 with a .613 OPS in Late and Close situations, which ranks 26th in MLB.

Juan Soto, who recently called out his teammates for giving up, has been the team's best hitter, with a slash line of .270/.413/.513, .925 OPS. He's also hit .284 with runners in scoring position. Their best player surprisingly has been second baseman Ha-Seong Kim. Batting .288 with 15 homers, he has an .835 OPS to go with +16 defensive runs saved at second base. He's tied with Ronal Acuna Jr. for the MLB Lead in position player WAR with 5.9. (Shohei Ohtani has 5.5 position player WAR and 3.5 Pitcher WAR for 9.0 WAR overall)

Xander Bogaerts signed a mega free agent contract during the off season but has also been a mega disappointment, batting just .265 with 11 homers and a .727 OPS and even posting -2 defensive runs saved.

Corbin Carroll remains the D-backs WAR leader with 4.1 despite slumping for the better part of the last six weeks. Carroll is batting .273 with 21 homers and 36 stolen Bases. Ketel Marte has 3.9 WAR and is batting .282 with an .850 OPS, including 18 homers, seven triples and 19 doubles. Christian Walker leads the team with 23 homers and 70 RBI and plays plus defense at first base, leading to a solid 2.8 WAR

Pitching Matchups

Stat Note: FIP is fielding independent pitching, which is based on just walks, strikeouts, and homers allowed. Large variances between ERA and FIP should be noted, as it may indicate some luck involved in the results, in either direction. aWAR is the average of Baseball Reference WAR which is based on runs allowed and makes adjustments for defense, strength of opponents and park factors, and Fangraphs WAR, which is based on the aforementioned FIP components.

Friday August 11, 6:40 P.M. MST

Blake Snell leads the league in ERA, and strikes out 12 batters per nine. From May 25th through July 30th, a span of 13 starts Snell threw 72 innings and allowed just six earned runs for a 0.73 ERA while going 7-2. That stretch has thrust him into the Cy Young conversation. In his most recent outing against the Dodgers he gave up three runs on four hits and four walks lasting five innings in a no decision. Snell also leads the league in walks with 72, leading to the large gap between FIP and ERA. He's 1-3 when he walks five or more batters, but 7-5 with seven no decisions when he walks four or less.

Ryne Nelson's inconsistent rookie season marches on. He's not missed a start but his results continue to be one good then one bad outing. For a pitcher that throws mid to upper 90's fastballs and has a decent slider and changeup when he can locate them it's mystifying why he doesn't strike out more batters. His 5.9 K/9 is the second lowest in all of MLB among qualified starters. He also allows the 11th highest hard hit rate and 13th lowest soft contact rate. One former major leaguer told me that he thinks Nelson simply gives hitters too long a look at the ball in his delivery, and doesn't hide it well enough. Earlier in the year pitching coach Brent Strom said he thought Nelson was tipping.

Saturday August 12, 5:10 P.M. MST

Rich Hill is 43 years old and pitching in his 19th major league season. Oh to be a lefty. He last faced the D-backs on July 7th while with the Pirates, giving up five runs in four innings taking the loss. Moved at the trade deadline to the Padres he was hit hard in his first outing for his new team, giving up six runs in just 3.1 innings of work.

Zac Gallen is still one of the leading contenders for the NL Cy Young award despite slumping to a 4.55 ERA in July. He gave up just two runs in seven solid innings against the Twins in his most recent outing and did not allow a home run, something that had been an issue recently. If the Diamondbacks are to get back in the playoff hunt, they'll certainly need Gallen to get on one of his patented runs we've seen from him over the last couple of years.

Sunday, August 13th, 1:10 P.M.

Seth Lugo signed a 2 yr, $15 million free agent deal with the Padres during the off season and the long term Mets reliever was brought in to be a starter. Up until his most recent outing, that had been working out quite well. Despite missing a month with a calf strain, in his first 16 starts, 89 innings he had a 3.54 ERA. That run ended on August 7th when he gave up eight runs to the Dodgers in 3.1 innings. Lugo felt the Dodgers were stealing his signs, and had some choice words after the outing. Lugo last faced the D-backs on April 21st going six solid innings giving up just two runs but taking the loss in a 9-0 D-backs victory.

Brandon Pfaadt probably pitched better in his most recent outing than his final line indicated. He allowed just one run through the first four innings, but the Dodgers got to him for three in a 5th inning that included some bad luck, sending him to the showers. Pfaadt has a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed just two homers over his last three starts, and appears to have turned the corner after a difficult first two call ups.