Rays at Diamondbacks Series Preview

In a clash of two first place teams, the Tampa Bay Rays come to Chase Field for a three game series against the Diamondbacks starting tonight at 6:40 P.M.

Preview

The Rays have the best record in baseball at 54-27, .667 W% and sit atop the AL East four games ahead of the Orioles. The Diamondbacks are 47-32, .595 W% and lead the Giants by 2.5 games and the Dodgers by 3.0.

The Rays got off to an incredibly hot start going 27-6 through May 5th. Since May 6th however they're 27-21, and from that same date the D-backs are 29-18. The Rays are also just 7-8 in their last 15 games, a stretch that includes two losses to the Oakland A's, and two losses to the Kansas City Royals, the two worst teams in the league.

The D-backs just completed a stretch of 17 games in 17 days due to a make up game taking away an off day. Despite losing three to the Phillies and two to the Giants, they managed to go 10-7 during this part of the schedule thanks to beating up on the Tigers, Guardians, Brewers, and Nationals.

Offense

The Rays have scored the second most runs in MLB this year, with 5.57 per game. They lead MLB with a team 124 OPS+. The Diamondbacks are fifth in runs scored, (5.18) and fifth in team OPS+ (110). The Rays run even more than the D-backs, leading the league with 99 stolen bases. The D-backs are 3rd with 79. The D-backs have the much better successful SB% however, 87% to 79%.

The Rays offense is led by Yandy Diaz, 159 OPS+ and Randy Arozarena, 151 OPS+ . They have a balanced attack however, with eight hitters at 127 OPS+ or better.

The D-backs best hitter this year has been rookie Corbin Carroll, 152 OPS+. Ketel Marte is coming on strong however and has his OPS+ up to 143. Thanks to a hot June Christian Walker is up to 135 OPS+

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday, June 27th, 6:40 P.M.

Taj Bradley RHP, 5-3, 3.86 ERA - 4.73 K/BB ratio

Bradley is a 22 year old rookie right-hander who will be making his 11th start of the year. First called up on April 12th, in his first three starts he went 3-0, threw 15.1 innings walking just two batters while striking out 23 and posted a 3.52 ERA.

Curiously, the Rays optioned him back to Triple-A after April 24th, where he got totally crushed for three starts, giving up 16 runs in nine innings. Recalled to the majors anyway to start on May 18th, he's been in the rotation ever since. Over his last seven starts he's gone 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA, with 13 walks and 48 strikeouts.

He averages 96 MPH on his four seamer, and throws a cutter, curveball and change up. He's averaging a whopping 13 strikeouts per nine innings. The Rays are being very protective with him however, as he's thrown 90 pitches just once this year, resulting in an average inning per start of just 4.9. He went six innings giving up just one run against the Orioles in his most recent start however. He didn't walk a batter and struck out eight, needing just 83 pitches.

Zac Gallen RHP, 9-2, 2.84 ERA, - 5.20 K/BB ratio

Gallen is the leading Cy Young contender in the National League and may well end up starting in the All Star Game. He's been outstanding in each of his last two starts, giving up just one run in seven innings both times to the Guardians and Brewers.

Gallen throws four pitches, Four Seam, Curveball, Cutter, and Change Up. He averages 93.4 MPH with the four seamer which is down about 0.7 MPH from last year, but that doesn't matter with this pitcher. It's all about location and command, changing speeds, and utilizing his pitch mix to optimal effectiveness. Known for his meticulous preparation, he is still a feel pitcher. As the game goes a long he has the ability to feel which pitches are working and exploit opponents weakness. At the same time he is stubborn, and if a certain pitch doesn't have the feel early, he may just lean into it and keep throwing it until he gets the feel.

Wednesday, June 28th, 6:40 P.M.

Zach Eflin RHP, 9-3, 3.35 ERA , 5.60 K/BB Ratio

Signed to a three year, $40 million free agent contract during the off season, Eflin is having a career year. In seven seasons with the Phillies he was 36-45 with a 4.49 ERA. He's always had minuscule walk rates, averaging just 2.2 walks per nine with the Phillies, but this year that's down to 1.6 BB/9. Playing in front of the superior Rays defense his hit rates are much lower, at just 7.7/9 compared to 9.5/9 in front of the perennially deficient Phillies defense. At the same time his home ballpark is now less homer friendly than it was in Philadelphia and that's helped keep his homer run rates down. (1.4 HR/9 as a Phillie, 1.1 with the Rays)

Eflin has a three pitch mix, Sinker, cutter and curveball. His sinker averages 92 MPH, and as you might expect from a pitcher with this repertoire he is a ground ball pitcher, sporting the 7th highest GB% in MLB at 53.6%. It's the curveball that's his best out pitch however as batters have a 38% whiff rate on the pitch and are batting just .143 on the curve.

Zach Davies RHP, 1-4, 7.82 ERA, 1.67 K/BB Ratio

Originally in line for the Thursday game, it was thought Davies might be pushed back or even skipped in the rotation. After all his last three starts have been a disaster, lasting just 10.1 innings in total, giving up 21 runs. Instead the team has moved him up to the Wednesday game to pitch on four days rest, and listed the Thursday game as TBA. It's unknown at this time if there is an injury elsewhere in the rotation or if there is some other consideration that precipitated this move.

We wrote extensively yesterday about Davies and what pitching coach Brent Strom feels he needs to do in order to get back to being competitive.

Thursday, 12:40 P.M.

As of this writing it's unknown who will pitch in this game for either team. Shane McClanahan has been battling back tightness and may or may not make this start.

Bullpens:

For the season the Rays rank 14th in MLB with a 3.87 bullpen ERA compared to the D-backs who rank 19th, 4.12. But once again, since that May 6th date mentioned at the top of this article, the D-backs bullpen has a 3.90 ERA which ranks 12th best in the league, while the Rays reliever ERA has ballooned to 4.71, 24th in MLB since that date.

Pete Fairbanks (1.76 ERA) is the closer and he has eight saves with just one blown. Jason Adam (2.97 ERA) leads the Rays with 11 saves, as he had to fill in while Fairbanks was on injured list or hasn't been available. Adam has blown five saves however and has only worked in the 7th or 8th inning in his most recent four outings.

Scott McGough (2.41 ERA) has taken over the closer role in Arizona, but that is still a fluid situation dependent on matchups. McGough's workload has been extremely heavy lately as well.