Which Triple-A Hitting Prospects Are Hitting the Best?

When it comes to evaluating position player prospects, it can be difficult to look beyond the baseball card stats due to a lack of data. Fortunately, the Diamondbacks Triple-A affiliate has batted ball data in which we can look at. So we'll take a preliminary look at the top five hitting prospects in Reno: outfielders Dominic Fletcher, outfielder Dominic Canzone, infielder Blaze Alexander, outfielder Jorge Barrosa, and infielder Buddy Kennedy.

Blaze Alexander

Alexander, the D-backs No. 17 prospect, presents the most interesting batted ball profile of the group and has gotten off to the hottest start. In nine games, he hit .458/.618/.792 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run. Fangraphs rates his early start to be 139% better than the league-average hitter in the Pacific Coast League with a wRC+ of 239.

His average exit velocity and launch angle don't jump off the page at 82.5 MPH and -2.7° respectively, but there is a lot more beyond the surface in his batted ball profile. Alexander has the highest hard-hit rate (95+ MPH exit velocity) at 38.9% and the highest barrel rate at 11.1%. With that in mind, it seems like there are some really weakly-hit balls in his profile with four of his 18 balls put into play having an exit velocity under 70 MPH.

In his batted ball data, Alexander has a 50% ground ball rate but also a 50% line drive rate. That accounts both the high BABIP, with around 70% of line drives going for hits. His exit velocity on line drives is only 87.6 MPH, although four of his last six line drives registered as hard-hit.

He will not be able to build on this hot start, as he suffered a broken thumb on a hit-by-pitch against the Sacramento River Cats on April 13th. He was immediately placed on the 7-day injured list and is expected to be out at least six weeks while the bone heals.

Jorge Barrosa

Barrosa, the organization's No. 24 prospect, is similar to the outfielders they have in the big leagues as a dynamic athlete who runs well and plays great defense. However he comes in a 5'5" frame and has below-average raw power according to scouting reports. A hamstring injury delayed his start to the season to last week against Sacramento, but has made up for lost time quickly. In his first six games, Barrosa is batting .261/.346/.435 with a double and a home run.

His average exit velocity sits at 86.3 MPH, jumping up to 88.6 on fly balls and line drives, with an average launch angle of 6.5°. There isn't much data, with less than half the games played compared to the other players on the list. His one home run was a Reno special, a bat hit 92.8 MPH with a 38° launch angle that got caught up in the wind tunnel at Greater Nevada Field and carried on out.

Barrosa's hard-hit rate of 23.5% is the lowest and his 5.9% barrel rate on balls put into play is the second lowest of these players. We'll need to see a larger sample to see what his power potential in order to make a stronger projection for the kind of big league role he could see in Arizona.

Dominic Canzone

Canzone has picked up right where he left off last season, hitting .271/.327/.604 with two doubles, a triple, and four home runs on the season. Despite an OPS over .900, Fangraphs rates his overall offense to be 26% better than the league-average hitter in the hitter-friendly PCL with a 126 wRC+.

The D-backs No. 16 prospect has somewhat underwhelming batted ball profile for a player with a plus raw power tool, already hitting a season max of 110.4 MPH, with his hard-hit rate of 32.6% and average exit velocity of 88.3 MPH. However when he does elevate the ball, the average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls jumps to 94.4 MPH. That has translated to a solid barrel rate of 11.6%. With the highest rate of balls being put into play, due to both a 9.1% walk rate and 12.7% strikeout rate, his ability to barrel up the ball consistently is his best weapon at the plate.

Given his weaker defensive profile compared to the other players in this group, Canzone best serves in a similar role to Pavin Smith. With stronger defenders in the outfielder not only in Triple-A, but also blocking him in the big leagues, he best serves as a fifth outfielder/first baseman/designated hitter who gets a lot of runs against right-handed starting pitchers.

Dominic Fletcher

The D-backs No. 14 prospect got off to a slow start to begin the season, but is coming off a solid series against Sacramento. On the season to date, Fletcher is hitting .245/.375/.453, but there are some positives in his batted ball data that suggests better numbers moving forward.

His average exit velocity sits at 88.0 MPH and an average launch angle of 9.7°. Fletcher's 10.3% barrel rate isn't too far behind Canzone, although his ability to hit the ball out of the park hasn't been as good. His home run to air contact ratio sits at only 4.2%, with his average exit velocity on that type of contact only being 90.6 MPH. Much of that is due to a lot of lazy fly ball outs, although Fletcher has not hit a pop up yet this season.

Given his all-around average toolset, Fletcher could play a platoon role or fourth outfielder in Arizona. Depending on how Jake McCarthy plays the next couple weeks, we could be seeing Fletcher in the big leagues soon.

Buddy Kennedy

Kennedy previously played for the big league club in 2022, but was outrighted to Triple-A after failing to stick. After a strong Spring Training, he has picked up right where he left off and is making a charge at a roster spot. The biggest standout statistic with Kennedy has been a 24.1% walk rate vs. a 8.6% strikeout rate, along with his .405/.569/.762 slash.

Despite the strong batting line, the batted ball data doesn't seem to support those numbers. Even with three home runs on his season, he has only one barrel to his name and a hard-hit rate of 29.7%. His .405 average is buoyed by a .412 BABIP, a result of a high line drive rate of 32.4%. However the quality of contact on fly balls and line drives might not be there to suggest a power breakout, as Kennedy's exit velocity on that type of contact sits at 91.6 MPH.

Given the combination of solid plate discipline, plus speed, and a decent feel to hit, there is a profile for a bottom of the order hitter. At the minimum, he's performing well enough to earn another big league opportunity, whether that's for Arizona or another club.

It's worth noting that we're only 15 games into Reno's schedule, so batted ball data likely hasn't stabilized enough to make any meaningful conclusions. It will be a good idea to take a look at this data throughout various points in the season to see who is doing the best job of impacting the baseball.