Diamondbacks Prospects Poised for a Breakout in 2023
Heading into the 2023 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks boost one of the top farm systems in baseball. Much of that talent will start arriving to the big leagues and contributing as early as this year. For Arizona to be competitive, not only this year but in the future, they will need to capitalize on their young talent.
Beyond the players who are going to contribute this year, the team has a couple prospects who are poised for a breakout. Here is one hitter and one pitcher who appear primed to not only have a big year in 2023, but also potentially catapult them into the organization's Top 10 list a year from now.
Hitter: Wilderd Patino
Patino is part of the D-backs 2017-18 international free agent class that includes Kristian Robinson and Justin Martinez. Health has been the biggest issue for the 21-year-old outfielder, as he only appeared in 94 games between Low and High-A. However it was a successful year, as Patino hit .290/.365/.432 with nine home runs and 67 stolen bases. Fangraphs rated his offense as 12% and 9% better than the average hitter in the California and Northwest League.
"We had him here since he was 16 years old" said D-backs farm director Josh Barfield. "He came in, he was athletic but really really raw. Every year he's gotten a little bit better, more physical. You look at him now, he should be playing football at Alabama. He's an exciting player, instinctual. He would have stolen 100 bases last year if he hadn't got hurt. He's cut down on the swing and miss, he's going to grow into that power as he becomes a better hitter."
Outside Corbin Carroll and Druw Jones, no outfielder in the system has a higher ceiling than Patino. Standing at 6'1" with a square frame that profiles well for future power and plus speed already, Patino's potential ceiling could be around 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and could play any outfield position well. The key will be for him to stay healthy and get more consistent at-bats, as he's developed a bit of a high strikeout, low walk profile that limits his offensive ceiling.
Depending on how the club views his progress, he could open up his Age 21 season with either High-A Hillsboro or Double-A Amarillo and then finish the season as high as Triple-A Reno and a stint in the Arizona Fall League. If he can simultaneously cut his strikeout rate to under 25% and increase his walk rate to at least 10% along with a jump in power numbers, there's enough offensive upside for a potential regular role in the outfield.
With how left-handed heavy the outfield currently is, Patino has an opportunity to carve out a role either as a right-handed platoon bat or an everyday right fielder.
Pitcher: Bryce Jarvis
Jarvis had a really tough season in Double-A last season, pitching to an 8.27 ERA. The former 2020 first rounder saw his home run rate spike and his fastball clobbered all season long. Despite the tough season, the team felt that he made enough progress to invite him to big league camp this spring.
"We've been excited since he came in the organization" said Barfield. "He's got three above-average pitches, especially the slider and changeup. He's got all the pieces of a really good big leaguer, now it's all about putting it together. It's a tough level to pitch at. He made some really good adjustments, getting more extension, a bit more deception. He's always had a really good arm, mid to upper 90s. The work ethic is as good as anyone in our system."
Jarvis has worked hard this spring to improve what he believes was his biggest issue, really short extension in his delivery. An article by Nick Piecoro revealed the former first rounder was averaging only 5.2 feet of extension, which would rank in the bottom five if in the big leagues, causing his 94-97 MPH fastball to play below its velocity reading. Jarvis was up to 5.8 feet in his scoreless outing against the Cubs and reportedly has been around 6.1-6.3 feet in mound sessions.
If that extra foot of extension allows for his fastball to play better against hitters, that is the final hurdle in his development as a prospect. He already has two plus secondary pitches in his slider and changeup, so an improvement in the fastball would complete his repertoire and give him the tools necessary to stick in the rotation long term.
A good start in Double-A could have him on the fast track to the big leagues after the All-Star break.
