Diamondbacks Farm System May 2023 Update: High-A Hillsboro
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The third installment of the monthly farm system updates now moves onto the Hillsboro Hops. The Hops have two high ceiling bats and two interesting arms headlining their roster. The environment of the Northwest League and Ron Tonkin Field serves as a change compared to the other extreme hitter environments in the organization.
This level features players with tremendous upside, but still learning how to better utilize their tools. Hillsboro's roster includes two big bats between Ivan Melendez and Wilderd Patino, two potential rotation arms in Dylan Ray and Yu-Min Lin, and a potential bullpen arm in Yilber Diaz.
Hitters
Ivan Melendez got off to a slow start with Hillsboro along with a couple injuries. After starting the year 2-for-22 at the plate, he was hit in the head by a fastball and was in concussion protocol for 11 days. He returned on May 3rd and was hitless in his first couple of games back. Since May 5th however he has been on a ten game hitting streak going 14 for 41, .341, with four doubles and five homers.
The main concern is strikeouts, with his strikeout rate at 34% for the season. Even during the hitting streak he's struck out 15 times in 46 plate appearances. If he can reduce the strikeouts down to 25% or lower, he has a chance to be a middle of the order slugger. D-backs farm director Josh Barfield has said the first full year in pro ball can be the most challenging, so I'm not too overly concerned if there is a progression in the strikeout rate.
Wilderd Patino was listed as a potential breakout candidate earlier this season, but has disappointed so far. While he's drawing more walks this season, with a walk rate above 12%, he's struggled with hitting the ball in the air, thus limiting his plus power tool. He's always had a high ground ball rate, but so far this year it's at an untenable 73%. He's hitting .237 with only four extra base hit, three doubles and one triple, but has gotten on base at a .348 clip from the leadoff spot. With his speed, that has translated into 15 steals in 17 attempts. Patino will need to hit the ball more in the air to convince the organization to commit a 40-man roster spot for him next November.
Pitchers
Dylan Ray has a 5.92 ERA in six starts, much of it due to a clunker start last week in which he allowed six runs while recording just one out. He has strong peripherals however with just three home runs allowed in 24.1 innings and a strikeout to walk ratio of 33/5. That clocks in at a much more encouraging 3.41 FIP. (Fielding Independent Pitching) If he keeps the ball in the yard and exhibits solid control, I expect his numbers to look solid when the season ends. After the organization's wave of pitching prospects in Reno, Ray looks like the best bet to stick in the rotation. I previously mentioned him as one of three prospects who had a fantastic April.
Yu-Min Lin has a 4.00 ERA in five starts with Hillsboro. They're monitoring his workload, so he has only 18 innings after pitching 56 innings last year between the complex and Low-A. So far on the season he has a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio and has not allowed a home run, giving him an excellent 2.34 FIP. The Taiwanese lefty continues to make steady progress, with a strikeout rate of 34% despite throwing in the low 90s, which speaks to the quality of his command and secondary stuff.
Yilber Diaz has struggled in six starts, pitching to a 9.00 ERA and 11 walks in 19 innings. The walks have been compounded by the long ball, with Diaz serving up six home runs on the season to date. It's worth noting that his strikeout rate is above 30% thanks to upper-90s heat and a solid breaking ball, but the lack of consistency in his starts may suggest a move to the bullpen.
