D-backs Prospects Who Improved their Stock the Most in April
The main stories about the Diamondbacks farm system have been about their major league ready talent. Corbin Carroll looks like a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate and young arms such as Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, and Brandon Pfaadt have gotten opportunities to start. However, the system extends beyond those who can contribute to the team right now. Today I'm highlighting three prospects who have done the most to improve their stock as prospects.
RHP Bryce Jarvis (Triple-A Reno)
Jarvis struggled through a tough 2022 season, in which he posted an 8.27 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A Amarillo. After getting lit up by Frisco's prospect-loaded roster in his first start of the season, he had back-to-back scoreless starts before the organization decided to better challenge him at Triple-A Reno. In his first two starts with the Aces, Jarvis has allowed just two runs in 10 innings, although he'll need to improve his 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio moving forward.
"He had a really difficult season last year in Double-A," said D-backs farm director Josh Barfield. "To his credit, he kept taking the ball, kept going out and competing. He was really open to different things, and we tried a number of different things last year. I don't think we necessarily got the success we wanted. We regrouped in the off-season, talked about a few different adjustments, mainly with the extension, trying to create more extension and deception, and changing his pitch usage a little bit. He was very open to it, went out in Spring Training. He had a really nice start in big league camp and continued that momentum into the season."
Last year, the main issue was his fastball getting hammered. Jarvis spent much of the off-season working in the pitching lab to improve his extension and add more deception to his fastball and allow his secondary pitches to play up more. As a result of these improvements along with the willingness to work on it, I considered Jarvis as a breakout candidate who could catapult into a Top 10 prospect in the organization and earn his first big league stint by the end of the year.
Jarvis relies primarily on his fastball, slider, and changeup. All three pitches grade as above-average, with his changeup and slider rating as plus offerings. He utilizes a curveball as well, but it is not an essential pitch to his success. Between the makeup and stuff, Jarvis profiles as a potential middle of the rotation arm in the D-backs rotation.
RHP Dylan Ray (High-A Hillsboro)
Ray was a buy-low prospect that the D-backs selected in the fourth round of last year's draft. His college career was sidetracked by Tommy John surgery just before his freshman season at Alabama, but a solid showing in the Cape Cod League last summer was enough to convince Arizona to take a gamble on him. He ended up signing for full slot with the 108th overall pick, and started his pro career with Low-A Visalia. While he pitched to a 6.59 ERA and allowed 16 hits and five home runs in 11.2 innings, he had a solid 17/4 strikeout to walk ratio.
In 2023, the D-backs promoted him to High-A Hillsboro. In four starts with Hillsboro he has a 3.79 ERA in 16 innings. The ERA is inflated due to a very low strand rate of 60.6%, but his other peripherals are very good. On the season Ray has struck out 28, walked only three, and allowed just two home runs. Opponents are hitting just .186 against him and his K-BB% is above 30% and his 2.75 FIP and 2.29 xFIP suggest his actual run prevention skills are better than his ERA suggests.
Ray's fastball sits in the mid 90s with some late, arm-side run. His best secondary offering is a slider that sits in the mid 80s and offers the most swing-and-miss potential. He's been working on a curveball and a changeup, with the curveball being a serviceable pitch and the changeup needing a lot of work before it's major league quality. He's an option to end up as a #3/4 starter or in the backend of a bullpen, depending on the development of that changeup. Last year, he pitched 56 innings between college, the Cape, and the minors, they'll be monitoring his workload closely.
INF Ryan Bliss (Double-A Amarillo)
Bliss struggled in the first half of the 2022 season, hitting .175/.264/.234 through June with High-A Hillsboro. He turned it around in the final two months, with a .264 batting average and a .818 OPS in his final 46 games of the season. While the overall numbers didn't look great, there was an obvious sign of progression with the bat during the season that's worth noting.
"He's a great story," said Barfield. "Last year was a really trying year for him, it was probably the first time he hasn't had success in his life in the game of baseball. We realize the first year in pro ball is by far the most challenging. Jumping up to High-A is no small ask either. The struggles he went through, the way he handled it, the makeup this kid has, he was a very determined individual. A lot of people would have beat him down, we even gave him an out last year. If he wanted to go back, similar to what we did with Perdomo a couple years ago, putting him on the dev list and going back to the complex and working on his swing. He was adamant about seeing it through and continuing the grind. He actually finished his last couple weeks, it was really positive and we were excited about taking that into this season. He came into Spring Training confident and ready to go, he embraced the failures from last year. He's better for it."
He has taken the improvements from the end of last season and it has carried over into 2023. In his first 18 games with Double-A Amarillo, Bliss is hitting .410/.424/.627 with eight doubles, two triples, and two home runs. Even when accounting for the extreme hitter's park of Hodgetown, which had a park factor of 142 last year according to Baseball America, Fangraphs rates his offense to be 73% better than the average Texas League hitter.
"His path is a little cleaner. Instead of just trying to get big and hit homers to the pull side, he went back to what he did in college. Using the whole field and being a complete hitter, I think it's paid huge dividends for him."
Bliss is also a very good defender who has the skills to win multiple Gold Gloves at second base. With Jordan Lawlar set as the team's shortstop of the future, he's been getting a lot of reps at the keystone when both prospects are in the lineup. If there are enough improvements with the bat that he could stick as a regular, he'll be Lawlar's double play partner for the foreseeable future.
Listen to the full conversation from Josh Barfield about Bryce Jarvis and Ryan Bliss down below:
