Setting Up the D-backs Draft Board Part 2: Possible Hitters

The second installment of setting up the Diamondbacks draft board with the No. 12 overall selection will cover potential draft targets. In the first part, I wrote down a list of players who are very unlikely to drop to them.

When setting up the board, we have to look at their past history. Under current general manager Mike Hazen, the Diamondbacks made seven selections in the first round of the draft. Four were high school bats, with all of them selected in the past five drafts, then one pick each in every other demographic. We can assume that another high school bat may be at the top of their list in 2023.

High School Bats

Colin Houck is the one player whose been connected to the D-backs the most in mock drafts. He has a more physical frame than Jordan Lawlar, but not quite as twitchy an athlete. His hitting mechanics are very simplistic, getting his front foot down quickly without much of a leg kick and getting the bat into the strike zone. Houck uses the entire field in his approach, although most of his power presently is to the pull side. As he fills out his 6'2", 190-pound frame, there may be an uptick in future power but also likely a move from shortstop to third base. While he's committed to Mississippi State, the D-backs should have no issues signing him since they are close to his projected draft ceiling if not the very top.

Aidan Miller would be a selection if Arizona decides to go for just offensive upside and not worry about taking an up-the-middle defender. If not for a broken hamate bone that sapped his power during his senior year of high school, he might have been an easy Top 10 pick. He's already outgrown the shortstop position and is playing third. There is some first base risk in his defensive profile, but the bat is more than enough where that is not an issue. Miller has plus raw power and showed he could consistently tap into it. The D-backs shouldn't have too many issues signing him away from Arkansas.

Arjun Nimmala is a pure upside pick at shortstop, but also the most raw of the three high school bats that could be in play. There is the potential for plus grade tools across the board, but he'll need to add another 10-15 pounds to his 6'1", 170-pound frame. His approach at the plate isn't quite as advanced as Miller or Houck, so he'll require more development time in the minor leagues. The upside is enough that teams in the 6-10 range could look to cut a deal as well.

College Bats

I find it very unlikely that the D-backs take a college bat with their top selection, given they'll likely have a choice of the three high school bats mentioned above. However the situation where that comes into play could be if they want to cut a deal with the No. 12 pick. Only one of the six round picks they've signed was for under-slot, which was Bryce Jarvis in a weird 2020 draft cycle.

Matt Shaw has the most offensive upside of the college bats that could appeal to the D-backs. He fits the type of a shorter player that has strong wrists and more power than you'd think with back-to-back 20 home run seasons with Maryland. He also has a strong summer track record, winning the Cape Cod MVP award in 2022. Defensively he's likely to move from shortstop to either second base or the outfield due to a below-average arm.

Tommy Troy is another college infielder whose very unlikely to stick at short, but is another player on the radar if Arizona wants to get "funny with the money". After starting out at short, he moved to third base his junior year with Stanford. He's more likely to end up at second long term.

Jacob Gonzalez has a strong track record of hitting in college, a career .319 hitter with 40 home runs and more walks than strikeouts in each year with Mississippi. As a sophomore, he won a College World Series title and hit a career-best 18 homers. There is enough range for him to stick at shortstop, although there is a possibility he'll need to move over to third.

In my opinion, the three high school bats bear watching more so than the college bats. With Arizona's next pick at No. 48, there isn't much of an advantage to be gained by making a savings pick then going above-slot later in the draft. Given the D-backs track record in the draft, I think they opt for their Best Player Available.