Odds maker forecasts Mariners' HR King Cal Raleigh will slip a few spots in 2026

It's a common opinion that Cal Raleigh can't possibly hit 60 home runs again this season, but where will he end up in the power-hitting pecking order?

Oct 20, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) hits a solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning during game seven of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

By now, it seems that the whole world knows about the season that Cal Raleigh produced in 2025. His 60 home runs set the MLB mark for both a catcher and a switch-hitter in a single season, and finishing runner-up in the American League Most Valuable Player voting, he was lauded for his magical performance. At some point during the summer, the veteran star would go from a mere All-Star to a god-like figure in the Emerald City.

Having said that, most experts and even the M's faithful don't really expect Raleigh to repeat those stats this season. And to be fair? He doesn't need to. With Josh Naylor in the lineup for a 162-game slate, and the continuing emergence of all-around weapon Julio Rodriguez, the Big Dumper doesn't have to carry the load.

Cal Raleigh hit his first Spring Training homer today and played nearly the entire game -- because his build-up to the WBC extends beyond the batter’s box.

“To me, it always starts with building up your legs. You’ve got to start behind the plate.”https://t.co/rDrD9oscGr

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) February 25, 2026

Having said that? It's always fun to speculate on what types of numbers a top-flight player might rack up, right after establishing a career year the season before. And according to wagering site Circa Sports, the odds are that Raleigh won't lead the Majors again in 2026, but still remain in the upper echelon of power hitters:

• Aaron Judge +480
• Shohei Ohtani +580
• Kyle Schwarber +900
• Nick Kurtz +1200
• Cal Raleigh +1400
• Pete Alonso +1600
• Junior Caminero +2000
• Juan Soto +2200
• Eugenio Suarez +3000

Based on those odds, look for a successful season from Seattle's backstop to be between 40-45 home runs and over 100 RBI. Those are statistics that Seattle will take in any season, especially from a non-traditional, defensive-minded position like catcher.

Raleigh & the Mariners are into the swing of things

Feb 24, 2026; Peoria, Arizona, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) at bat during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox in Peoria, Arizona. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Even Cal Raleigh admits that it's a very long shot that he will hit 60 home runs again, but he isn't expecting to. As mentioned previously, the Seattle Mariners aren't just a one-tricky pony, and the catcher can settle into a groove knowing he has so much talent around him. He's also made it clear that winning is his biggest priority over individual numbers and awards.

“I think the elephant in the room is 60 home runs,” Raleigh said in a recent discussion with Brock & Salk. “That’s not something I’m setting out to do. To me, I’m just trying to be as consistent as possible, trying to do what I did last year. … I have been working on some things, trying to get better at the bottom of the zone. Obviously, always trying to keep my body ready for the season. So there are a few things in there that I’ve kind of looked at.”

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