Could Nationals Make Major Splash This Offseason by Signing Dylan Cease?
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The Washington Nationals have a major problem when it coms to their starting rotation.
They entered the season feeling fairly confident in that group. After re-signing Trevor Williams and bringing in Michael Soroka to fill out the unit alongside their ace MacKenzie Gore and two breakout performers from 2024 in Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, there was some hope they could be solid.
But that ultimately was not the case. Williams and Soroka got hurt, Irvin and Parker regressed and the others who were in the pipeline or waiting in Triple-A as depth pieces either also suffered long-term injuries or weren't effective.
This resulted in the Nationals' starting pitchers finishing the 2025 regular season with the second-worst ERA in baseball (5.18) behind the lowly Colorado Rockies (6.65), who had one of the worst marks in MLB history.
With Paul Toboni coming in to take over the president of baseball operations role for Washington, it seems like there will be some changes made to the rotation. But just how much he's going to do this winter isn't clear.
Nationals Could Go After Dylan Cease in Free Agency
If Toboni wants to make a splash, then he could go after Dylan Cease in free agency to create a one-two punch with Gore that would become one of the best in the game.
The 29-year-old didn't have his best season this year with a 4.55 ERA and ERA+ of 94 that was six points below the league average, but he still had his elite strikeout stuff with a K/9 ratio of 11.5 this season that was the second-highest number of his career.
Cease has also shown flashes of dominance. He had an AL Cy Young runner-up finish in 2022 where he posted a 2.20 ERA across 32 starts, and then finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2024 when he had a 3.47 ERA across 33 starts. He's also struck out 200-plus batters in five straight seasons.
But perhaps what is the most important thing for the Nationals when it comes to the star right-hander is his durability. He's made 32 or more starts every year since the start of 2021 and was last on the injured list during April of that campaign. So having him in this rotation would be a huge boost compared to what they have at the moment.
What Could Dylan Cease's Contract Look Like?
Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report dove into Cease's numbers and tried to find a comparison to another player who became a free agent at his age and with the type of numbers he has put up. That landed Cease in the same ballpark as Aaron Nola, the Philadelphia Phillies longtime ace who received a seven-year, $172 million contract.
Considering Cease and Nola had virtually identical numbers over a five-season span before each became free agents, it's very likely that Cease gets something similar to Nola's contract this winter. Which brings things back to the Nationals. Are they going to be willing to pay that?
Miller isn't so sure, with him writing, "At some point, they're going to reinvest in winning and spend more than $15 million on a free agent for the first time since that ill-fated $245 million re-signing of Stephen Strasburg in 2019. Yet again, though, it looks like the Nationals are at least a year away from being one big splash away from relevance."
Perhaps the hiring of Toboni is what owner Mark Lerner needs to finally open up the checkbook again this offseason. And if that is the case and this new front office regime wants to bring in one of the most consistent starting pitchers to address their horrendous rotation, then Cease could be a real option.
Unfortunately, the way this franchise has operated in recent years makes it hard to believe they will do what it takes to land a high-profile free agent of Cease's magnitude.
