Eye Test Says Nationals Star Dylan Crews Has Improved, Here's What the Numbers Say

On June 6, Dylan Crews blasted his second home run of the season for the Washington Nationals.

Now, he sits with four after he hit homers on June 12 against the Seattle Mariners and June 15 against the Kansas City Royals. That stretch had to feel good for the struggling outfielder. He's tried to reinvent his swing and approach with the help of the new staff after he began the year with Triple-A Rochester, and there has been more lows than highs when it comes to results.

The attempt to transform Crews was done with the long-term in mind, however, so it was more about the process early on than measuring the outcome each and every game. But now that positive results have started to occur, is it safe to say that what the former No. 2 overall pick has done is here to stay?
This is what the numbers say.

Underlying Statistics Much More Positive Than Actual Numbers

Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews | Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

The best sign that Crews might be turning a corner when it comes to his major league career is what the underlying statistics say compared to his actual stats in June.
(Stats accurate as of June 16)

Actual Stats

-Batting Average: .174
-On-Base Percentage: .244
-Slugging Percentage: .391
-Hits: 8
-Home Runs: 3
-Extra-Base Hits: 4
-RBI: 10
-Strikeouts: 10
-Walks: 1

Advanced Stats

-Expected Batting Average: .293
-Expected Slugging Percentage: .574
-Exit Velocity: 92.3 mph
-Barrel Rate: 13.9%
-Hard-Hit Rate: 52.8%
-Fly Ball Rate: 41.7%
-Ground Ball Rate: 38.9%
-Strikeout Rate: 20.4%
-Walk Rate: 2.0%

When looking at the actual numbers of Crews during the month of June, there isn't much to get excited about. Through 13 games and 49 plate appearances, he's hitting under the Mendoza Line and has an OPS well under .700. While he has less than a strikeout per game, he's also only drawn a single walk and just has one extra-base hit outside of his three home runs.

On paper, it looks like much of the same for Crews, who has had a hard time being a consistent hitter during his professional career compared to what he was coming up the prep ranks and in college. However, the advanced statistics paint a much different picture.

Per the expected batting average and expected slugging percentage numbers, it's clear the 24-year-old has gotten unlucky throughout June, as the delta between his BA an xBA is .119, while the delta between his SLG and xSLG is .183. That is a huge difference, and it shows there is a lot of positive regression coming for Crews at some point if he keeps this same approach.

Much of that could have to do with how hard he's hitting the ball. His 52.8% hard-hit rate is well above the league average mark of roughly 40%, and his barrel rate of 13.9% is considered elite. What he'll have to focus on is getting the ball in the air more often with those hard contact numbers, as his 41.7% fly-ball rate in June is a huge improvement compared to what he's done previously in his major league career, but there is still room to grow since 38.9% of his balls have been hit on the ground.

All in all, there is a lot to like about what the underlying metrics say regarding how Crews has performed this month. And with the results now starting to come in relation to the eye test, a breakout could be on the verge of happening this summer.

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