Impending Return of This Nationals Starting Pitcher Won't Help Matters

This might not be the help the Washington Nationals are envisioning.

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It feels like the Washington Nationals have been waiting for their starting pitchers to get healthy for years now, as their arms at both the big league level and in their pipeline have gone down with long-term injuries that have required Tommy John surgery.

Someone who went down this past season was Trevor Williams, the veteran starter who the Nationals re-signed in free agency to a two-year, $14 million contract. While they knew he wasn't going to be a high-end starting pitcher by any means, he ate innings for them in 2023 and was much better in 2024 with a 2.03 ERA across 13 starts before a flexor tendon strain ended his season in the summer.

Unfortunately for both parties, the reunion didn't go as anyone planned early on this year, as Williams lost his command and saw his velocity dip to concerning levels. That resulted in him owning a 6.21 ERA across 16 starts before he underwent an internal brace procedure to fix his torn UCL.

Nationals Expected to Get Trevor Williams Back Early on in 2026

Brad Mills-Imagn Images

Williams won't be on the 2026 Opening Day roster. He still has hurdles to clear before he gets ready to push for his major league return. But according to Mark Zuckerman of MASN, the timeline is somewhere in the "late April or early May" range.

With that being less than a year of recovery time, his impending return will at least add another rotation arm to the mix early in the season. While Williams could possibly be viewed as a non-tender candidate, the fact he's owed $7 million for 2026 makes it seem unlikely the ownership group would be willing to just eat that amount of money.

So there's a good chance the 33-year-old is a factor for the Nationals next year. But while getting any starting-caliber arm back for Washington seems like a plus, it's not a given that Williams is going to provide much when he returns to the mound in 2026.

Trevor Williams' Profile Is Beyond Concerning

Brad Mills-Imagn Images

Zuckerman took a look at the overall numbers from Williams in 2025 compared to how he threw in 2024. And the velocity was down by over a mile per hour, going from 88.9 mph when he was effective the previous season to 87.7 mph this year.

That wasn't the only thing that decreased, either. Due to his low velocity, it's imperative he is able to keep the ball in the yard by inducing ground balls. In 2024, that occurred 44.8% of the time, only to see that number drop all the way down to 35.1% this season.

Both of those things combined should be enough to concern anyone, but Zuckerman really drove the point home with a staggering statistic that highlights how Williams could be more of a hindrance than a help when he's back.

"And if you look at the plot of all of the four-seamers he threw, his most common location was right down the middle of the strike zone. Is it any wonder opponents mashed that fastball to the tune of a .345 batting average and .556 slugging percentage after being held to a paltry .202 and .279 in those respective categories the previous year?" Zuckerman wrote.

That's why it's hard to believe Williams will be a plus for Washington when he does return. Already dealing with reduced velocity and poor location, it's anyone's guess as to how that will look coming off Tommy John surgery.

Because of that, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Nationals move on later in the season when his dead money is a bit less than what it would be if they non-tendered him this winter.