Nationals Listed as 'Surprise Fit' for One of Top Remaining Free Agents

Could the Washington Nationals make a play here?

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Following the decision to trade MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers, there is a massive gap in the Washington Nationals' rotation that will need to be filled throughout the upcoming campaign.

Already one of the worst units in the league last year, losing their ace is not going to help things in the short term. However, there is still time for the team to poke around in free agency and add some additional arms to the mix that could potentially cover the innings that are lost from Gore getting shipped out of town, even if the upside won't be there.

Someone who would fit that billing is veteran right-hander Lucas Giolito. The former 16th overall pick of the 2012 draft by the Nationals is still on the market, and Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report believes Washington could be a "surprise fit" for him.

Reunion Between Lucas Giolito, Nationals Could Happen This Offseason

James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

"There hasn't been a lot of reported interest in Lucas Giolito this winter, which would be surprising if his 3.41 ERA from last year wasn't such an obvious mirage. ... You have to wonder if Giolito's free agency will end with contenders bypassing him, leaving him to seek a deal with a club that views him as a future trade chip—and for this, the Nationals would be perfect," Rymer wrote.

On paper, the 3.41 ERA looks good for a guy coming off an internal brace procedure to fix his UCL that caused him to miss all of the 2024 season. But when diving into the numbers a bit more deeply, it does not paint a pretty picture.

Not only does Baseball Savant have his expected ERA at 5.09, but his chase rate of 26.7% was in the 30th percentile, his whiff rate of 22.9% was in the 28th percentile, his strikeout rate of 19.7% was in the 28th percentile and his walk rate of 9.1% was in the 30th percentile. Those are all numbers that don't suggest Giolito will have success to the same level in terms of ERA like he did in 2025.

Why Lucas Giloto Makes Sense for Nationals

Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

While those numbers might scare away contending teams, luckily the Nationals don't have to worry about that. What will determine if they sign Giolito in free agency or not will be money, as Washington will not meet the roughly $15-20 million figure he's looking to receive.

However, if his market continues to not develop the way he envisioned and the asking price starts coming down to a point where Paul Toboni -- who was with the Boston Red Sox last year when Giolito was pitching for that franchise -- is comfortable, then a reunion could take place between the two sides.

And if that happens, Washington's rotation would be much better set up on paper to replace the loss of Gore, even if the veteran does take a step back this year.