One Player Looks Like Clear Front-Runner To Be Nationals' Opening Day Starter
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From 2012-2021, the Washington Nationals knew it was going to be either Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg taking the mound as the team's Opening Day starter.
But following the trade of MacKenzie Gore, the Nationals will now have a different pitcher starting the first game of the season for the fourth year in a row when they take the field on March 26 against the Chicago Cubs.
Right now, the rotation looks thin on paper. Jake Irvin, despite his struggles in 2025, is expected to remain a starter. Foster Griffin was an underrated addition. And the return of Josiah Gray should provide a boost. However, the high-end talent without Gore is glaring.
Cade Cavalli Should Be Nationals' Opening Day Starter
That's why Cade Cavalli is the clear front-runner to be the 2026 Opening Day starter. His ceiling is the highest out of the entire group as a former first-round pick who has shown flashes of being a top-of-the-rotation arm.
In his return to the big league mound for the first time since 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the right-hander posted a 4.25 ERA across his 10 starts. His strikeout numbers were a bit low with 40 K's in 48 2/3 innings pitched. However, his chase rate was in the 95th percentile at 33.9% and his whiff rate was in the 72nd percentile at 27.9%.
On 8/16, Cade Cavalli shut down a playoff Phillies club. 7 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 5 K, 0 BB, 12 whiffs.
— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) December 28, 2025
Also 12 ground balls! The 27 y/o will get a real chance to stick in the ‘26 Nats rotation.
Sky’s the limit if healthy… pic.twitter.com/lg76YtyBKb
A Year 2 bump following a long layoff could be coming for Cavalli. The 27-year-old finished the 2025 season strong, posting a 3.38 ERA in the month of September where he went 2-0 in his five starts.
Now the defacto ace of this rotation based on his past pedigree and what he did last year, handing him the ball on Opening Day to face a dangerous Cubs lineup is a big part of that responsibility. But despite Cavalli being the clear front-runner, there's still a chance he doesn't start Game 1.
Other Possible Options for Opening Day Starter
As crazy as it sounds, there's a possibility that Irvin is the 2026 Opening Day starter for Washington. He has the most major league service time out of anyone in this projected Nationals rotation. So if he's able to prove he should remain a starter during spring training instead of being shifted into the bullpen, then he could be the team's choice to take the mound for the first game of the season.
Much of that has to do with the competition he's facing. Gray is returning from Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched in the MLB since April 2024. Griffin is coming back stateside from Japan and hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors since 2022. And Brad Lord projects as more of a swingman than a front-end starter.
But all of that is even more of a reason why Cavalli should be the Opening Day starter. And barring a disastrous showing during the spring, it would be shocking if he wasn't.
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Brad Wakai graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Journalism. While an undergrad, he worked at the student radio station covering different Penn State athletic programs like football, basketball, volleyball, soccer and other sports. Brad became the Lead Contributor for Nittany Lions Wire of Gannett Media where he continued to cover Penn State athletics. Currently, Brad is the Publisher for Washington Nationals On SI and covers multiple teams across the On SI network. He is the host of the sports podcast I Said What I Said, where he and his co-host discuss topics across the NFL, College Football, the NBA and other sports. You can follow him on Twitter: @bwakai