Editorial: Padres Have to be Kicking Themselves After Corbin Burnes Trade
On Jan. 11, Corbin Burnes agreed to a $15.6 million contract for 2024 with the Milwaukee Brewers, avoiding arbitration.
Perhaps the Brewers had little to gain by keeping Burnes in 2024, and plenty to lose if he departed in free agency after the season. If so, they did the wise thing by trading him. Certainly he was within the price range of most, if not all, major league teams.
The lucky winner of the Burnes sweepstakes? The Baltimore Orioles, who traded pitcher DL Hall, shortstop prospect Joey Ortiz, and a Competitive Balance Round pick in the next draft to land the three-time All-Star.
Burnes was a great acquisition for Baltimore. The Orioles were a 101-win team last year who could count on improving merely by virtue of their young core aging closer to its prime, and a full season from veteran starter John Means.
Still, their starting rotation stood out as a glaring weak spot on an otherwise impressive roster. In an always-competitive American League East, any marginal improvement can make a big difference.
Burnes, 45-27 with a 3.26 ERA since his 2018 debut, makes more than a marginal difference.
For the San Diego Padres, the trade has to feel like a missed opportunity. Every front office who could offer a better trade package than the Orioles was left reflecting on the Brewers’ return for Burnes.
That’s especially true for teams with an obvious need in its starting rotation, and a deep farm system from which to offer a quality prospect or two.
The Padres fit that description to a tee.
Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres’ rotation is full of question marks. Can Michael King replicate over a full season what he did in nine starts (2.23 ERA, 1.141 WHIP) with the New York Yankees last year? Same goes for 2023 rookie Randy Vasquez (2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP in five starts). Is Jhony Brito (3-6, 6.32 ERA as a starter last year for the Yankees) ready to hold down a major league rotation spot full-time?
Perhaps most importantly: if those are the five best starters on the Padres' 40-man roster, who steps in when one of them gets hurt?
Burnes would have represented a sizable upgrade over Brito or Vasquez. Judging by the Orioles' return, he would conceivably have cost San Diego one relief pitcher, one 2024 draft pick, and one top-100 prospect. The Padres could offer four or five top-100 prospects to choose from, depending on your listmaker of choice.
For a team that missed the National League’s final wild-card berth by one game in 2023, the absence of starting pitching depth could loom large.
It’s worth keeping in mind what we don’t know. Maybe the price to acquire Burnes was higher for a National League team than an American League team. Maybe the Brewers uniquely viewed Hall as a starter, valuing him more than the typical middle reliever. Their opinion of Ortiz could have been higher than the industry consensus too.
Still, the Padres’ rotation is at least one established starter short of turning them into a probable postseason contender. In an offseason defined by cost-cutting, their options are few. If the asking price for free agent left-hander Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery is too high, at least the Padres are not alone in not wanting to pay the price.
But that merely makes the trade market a more attractive avenue for upgrading their starting rotation — and makes the Burnes trade feel like a missed opportunity.
The Padres might not get another chance to swing for a number-1 starter before the 2024 season begins.
