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What Will It Take for Bryce Harper to Repeat as MVP in 2022?

It's been over 40 years since Mike Schmidt repeated as NL MVP for the Phillies in 1980 and 1981. Could Bryce Harper be next? What will it take to see the MVP trophy remain in Philadelphia in 2022?

Author:
Ben Silver
Feb 2, 2022 4:17 PM EST

It’s been 40 years since the Philadelphia Phillies last had a repeat MVP winner in Mike Schmidt, and eight years since MLB last had a repeat MVP winner in Miguel Cabrera. If Bryce Harper can recreate the success he had in 2021, he may be the next name on both of those lists.

Most important to Harper’s chances at MVP in 2022 is the quality of his 2021 National League MVP runner-ups, chiefly Juan Soto and Fernando Tatís Jr.

Last season, Harper was able to capture the illustrious honor by exercising his ability on offense, while his defense was somewhat lacking. Aiding Harper’s case was a late-July injury to Tatís Jr., a slow start to Soto’s season, and the fact that neither player made the postseason.

Tatís Jr. plays a much more valuable position. Offense from shortstops is inherently of a higher value as they tend to be weak hitters, elevating players like Tatís Jr. even higher over their competition.

However, Tatís Jr.’s defensive value at shortstop was subpar. He was worth -6 DRS, almost entirely negating his offensive value above other shortstops. In fact, his defense was so poor that he was moved to right field by season’s end, the same position as Harper.

Thus, when the season came to a close and Harper’s OPS+ of 179 towered over Tatís Jr’s relatively minuscule 166 OPS+, the decision regarding which player had a better season was clear.

In 2021, Soto made the switch to right field from everyday left fielder for the Nationals. Therefore, his 4 DRS to Harper’s -6 at the position gave Soto an even more significant edge.

Yet, the Washington Nationals’ new right fielder began the season particularly slow. On Independence Day, 83 games into the season, Soto was slashing .274/.393/.425, a comparatively low figure for the mega-star, one that certainly impacted the BBWAA’s opinion come voting season.

Even Soto’s second-half slash of .348/.525/.639 couldn’t boost him to MVP. Neither could his aforementioned defensive capabilities, another point likely overlooked by voters who associated Soto with poor defense and Harper with above-average defense.

Prior to 2021, Harper was worth 15 DRS for his career and Soto was worth -11. Defensive statistics take years to regress given their naturally small sample size, so Harper’s outlier DRS versus Soto’s outlier DRS in 2021 may or may not be a moot point for voters.

Due to these factors and Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season ending injury in July, it was a particularly soft year for NL MVP voting. Should Harper reign as NL MVP in 2022, he will likely have to improve upon his 2021 campaign.

Harper proved in 2015 that he’s capable of doing so. That year, a 22-year-old Harper slashed .330/.460/.649 with 42 home runs and 6 DRS. He had 55 more plate appearances that year and even his BAbip was higher, .369 to .359.

A .369 BAbip is unsustainable seeing as Harper’s career average is .320, but there are ways to naturally raise one’s BAbip without necessitating luck.

The first and most important of which is raising average exit velocity. In 2015, Harper’s avg EV was 91.4 mph, in 2021, it was 92.5. An impressive total last year, but still over 3 mph behind MLB leader Aaron Judge at 95.8 mph.

Harper can also increase his plate discipline. In 2015, he walked at a higher rate, 19.0% to 16.7% and struck out at a lower rate, 20.0% to 22.4%. He hit home runs at a higher rate too, 6.4% in 2015 to 5.8% in 2021.

Though Harper is near the top of the league in all of these categories, he has room for improvement. None of these statistics require luck from the hitter, they can all be increased solely on the batter’s merit without input from meddling fielders.

Of course, even if Harper does improve in these areas, he still may not win MVP, he may even decline slightly. Baseball isn’t entirely about numbers on a spreadsheet.

Luck and the arbitrary nature of baseball is what makes the game great. The sport would be bland and unenjoyable if the greats of the game never failed. For Harper to win MVP he’ll need not only his talent, but luck on his side in 2022.