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How Should the Phillies Plot Their Offseason Plans?

The Philadelphia Phillies need reinforcements this winter, but how should they approach the offseason?

The Philadelphia Phillies have a lot of work to do this winter. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski said as much during his first offseason press conference earlier this week.

Dombrowski stated the need for help with the closer's role, a middle-of-the-lineup bat, a leadoff man, and potentially at shortstop. Of course one could argue that the rotation needs help as well.

Where it gets tricky for the franchise is that they ended the 2021 season with an estimated payroll of about $183 million according to Spotrac. The sixth-highest in MLB, but carefully under the luxury tax threshold. With a few arbitration cases that number could be somewhere near the same come the start of the 2022 MLB season. However, that is before any acquisitions are made in the free agent market.

Dave Dombrowski - FA 3B

If owner John Middleton will allow Dombrowski to go over the luxury tax for 2022, then things could get interesting. Considering that Middleton was reportedly fine with it at the trade deadline this past season for the right player, it is not far-fetched to think he would give the green light this winter. 

Of course, it will likely all be subject to what the new luxury tax looks like after the new collective bargaining agreement is in effect.

With the needs listed above and the glaring deficiencies in the roster, it is easy to look toward this year's historic free agent class of shortstops. Not only did Dombrowski not guarantee Didi Gregorius the starting position next season, but one of the available free agent shortstops could provide exactly what the team is looking for.

Any one of Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, or Javier Báez could man shortstop while also acting as protection in the lineup for Bryce Harper. We did a piece a few weeks back here at Inside the Phillies detailing which one of the four could be a good fit for the franchise. After Dombrowski's press conference, we feel even more confident about the choice.

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This club has and isn't afraid to spend money. Philadelphia is the fourth largest media market in the United States. They've used that money to sign Harper, Zack Wheeler, and J.T. Realmuto. All in their primes, all high-profile deals, and all they were all signed under the assumption that they'd end the Phillies decade-long playoff drought. Yet, it hasn't worked.

The fact the Phillies aren't afraid to spend money when needed means all signs point towards another star player being added. Again, going over the luxury tax would almost have to be a must in this scenario as it still leaves a glaring hole with the closer position.

The Phillies bullpen has been in a state of flux and disaster for the last two seasons. In 2020, the bullpen was historically bad. In 2021, the bullpen was on pace for the MLB record for blown saves until the unit made a turnaround after the trade deadline. 

It is an issue that has to be addressed if Philadelphia wants to take advantage of their star players' primes and bringing a championship home. The pickings could be slim on the market, but names like Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Trevor Rosenthal, and Mark Melancon all come to mind as proven closers.

Now, all of that doesn't mean that a star shortstop and closer will fix all of the Phillies' issues, but it is a solid start. Production from the younger players that are in the system like Mickey Moniak, Bryson Stott, Matt Vierling, and perhaps even Nick Maton will be a must. It will allow the club to spend money elsewhere when they know they have young, cheap talent they can rely on.

Additionally, production from the bench has to improve from 2021's levels. But with players like Freddy Galvis, potentially Gregorius and others, it could become a strength.

Philadelphia's window for contention is wide open. It will take shrewd moves, investment, and for the Phillies to make the most of it to make a run at the World Series. This team has all the makings to compete, they just need a few extra parts.

The franchise knows this and Dombrowski seems to be the right man to get the team over the hump this winter.

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