Should Texas Rangers' Josh Smith Tag Up On Seager's 9th-Inning Flyout? It's Complicated.

ARLINGTON, Texas — Josh Smith represented the game-tying run at second base with one out in the ninth inning of Game 5 Friday night.

The Texas Rangers trailed the Houston Astros 5-4 with one out and two runners on after Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim reached on singles and Marcus Semien lined out to short. Smith was pinch-running for Garver.

Slugger Corey Seager was at the plate and he sent a 1-0 pitch 391 feet to center field that Mauricio Dubón tracked down.

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Meanwhile, Smith was still standing halfway between second and third, not sure if Dubón was going to run the fly ball down. Smith returned to second after the catch was made. But should he have stayed closer to second base in order to tag up and advance to third? Not necessarily.

"In that situation, ideally, you like to get to third if you can," Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said. "You don’t want to get to the point where you don’t score if it falls in."

Once the catch is made, however, it's less imperative the runner attempts to tag up unless it's clear he'll beat the throw, Bochy said. With two outs, a baserunner never wants to make the third out at third base.

"With nobody out, it’s a different story. If [Dubón] drops the ball, he scores with one out," Bochy said. "Really, it’s his read. It’s a little risky. You don’t want to make the third out at third either, so it’s his read. Now, if he sees it’s definitely going to be caught and a definite tag where he’s going to get there easily, then I agree he should have tagged. But in that [situation], no."

What about at least showing you're tagging up to draw a throw and maybe it sails into the stands?

Marcus Semien reacts to Game 5 loss ... pic.twitter.com/poDxMbYDVo
— Stefan Stevenson (@StefanVersusTex) October 21, 2023

"Yeah, they had a good defense out there. It would have been risky. But I don’t like guys tagging, to be honest, if it’s not a 100% deal where they think they’re going to get there, even if they know they’re going to catch it," Bochy said. "With a good relay [throw] there I think it would have been a close play. It’s the runner’s read.

"I’ve seen too many times with one out where they tag thinking he’s going to catch it, he doesn’t, and then he doesn’t score. It wasn’t that critical for him to take that risk, or to your point, try to draw a bad throw because he probably wasn’t going to go and risk making the third out at third base."

After Seager flied out, Evan Carter struck out to end the game and give the Astros a 3-2 lead with the series headed to Houston. Game 6 is Sunday night at Minute Maid Park, with a potential seventh game on Monday.

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You can follow Stefan Stevenson on Twitter @StefanVersusTex.

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