19 Best Free Agent Fits For Red Sox As They Attempt To Bolster Roster For 2024
The Boston Red Sox are expected to once again spend like a big-market team this winter after pretending to be a middle-of-the-pack city for a few seasons.
Atop their list of needs is starting pitching, and they need more than just one impact arm. Two or three impact additions are necessary this offseason. Fortunately, the free-agent market contains a historically talented group of frontline starters. Not only does this class have top-of-the-line options but it's a deep group as well.
The Red Sox also desperately need a right-handed hitting outfielder as well as an offensive contributor that can rival what Justin Turner produced in 2023.
Boston's top three outfielders are Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran -- all of whom are left-handed hitters. Yoshida also happens to be a poor defender.
If Turner were to depart, the Red Sox could add a right-handed hitting outfielder and slide Yoshida into the designated hitter role, improving the balance of the lineup and defense, all in one move. Yoshida also frequently slumped due to fatigue last season and would be able to keep his legs under him for much longer if relegated to an everyday designated hitter role.
Second base is a concern but the middle infield class is as bad as it can get, to the point where no free agent stands out as a legitimate upgrade over the likes of Pablo Reyes and other internal candidates.
Since the goal was to find the best fits, I've removed two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani -- he's a left-handed hitter who cannot pitch next season -- as well as left-handed outfielder Cody Bellinger. Both of those moves would be beneficial but would need additional transactions to balance out the lineup, such as trading Alex Verdugo. In Ohtani's case, it would also force the Red Sox to sign a $500 million contract before even beginning to make progress on the 2024 rotation.
To give some perspective on how much these players could cost, I've included projections from The Athletic's Tim Britton, who goes to extreme lengths to find previous player comparisons that would match the current class.
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP
The Japanese ace leads arguably the most promising international free-agent class of all time, and it's not close. He's the best pitcher to ever attempt to transition from Japan to Major League Baseball.
Yamamoto has it all. He can dial up triple digits to lead an electric four-pitch mix. At 25 years old he's just starting to enter his prime but also has seven years of experience in Japan's prestigious Nippon Professional Baseball League.
The right-hander posted a 16-6 record with a 1.21 ERA, 169-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 0.88 WHIP in 164 innings across 23 starts for Orix Buffaloes in 2023.
He is an unbelievable prospect and would be the perfect player for the Red Sox to target in order to revamp their ailing rotation. All of the big markets will be involved, but it's time for Boston to remind the rest of the league that they are capable of writing just as big a check as anyone else.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Seven years, $203 million
2. Blake Snell, SP
The soon-to-be National League Cy Young winner had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.
Snell went 14-9 with a league-leading 2.25 ERA, 234-to-99 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .181 batting average against and 1.19 WHIP in 180 innings across 32 starts.
The 30-year-old impending free-agent led MLB with a 182 ERA+ and 5.8 hits per nine innings, but his 99 walks were the most in the league, forcing him into trouble often. He took a unique path to greatness, one that might not be sustainable.
Snell also is not the most reliable starter in terms of availability, which was a huge issue for the Red Sox in 2023. He’s averaged 142 innings per 162-game season — discounting his rookie year and the shortened 2020 season.
That said, Snell is a premier starter who would be a huge addition to the Red Sox. I do not envision him ending up in Boston, but the organization certainly will make a run for him. If Yamamoto were to sign elsewhere, he would jump to the top of my wish list.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Five years, $135 million
3. Jordan Montgomery, SP
Montgomery is a reliable arm that did not start to get enough attention until his World Series run with the Texas Rangers.
Montgomery posted a 3.20 ERA with a 166-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .247 batting average against and 1.19 WHIP in 188 2/3 innings between his time with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers.
The 30-year-old continued to get better as the season progressed, and the playoff run got more intense which is a notable green flag for a frontline starter.
The southpaw went 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings this postseason on his way to the Rangers' first World Championship.
Montgomery is not the best option if the goal is to sign an eventual Cy Young winner, but he has one of the highest ceilings and is incredibly consistent. Any team would benefit from adding Montgomery into their rotation, especially Boston.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Five years, $105 million
4. Sonny Gray, SP
Gray does not get nearly as much respect as he deserves. The three-time All-Star will receive American League Cy Young votes for his performance with the Minnesota Twins, yet he's still relatively unheralded.
The 33-year-old posted a 2.79 ERA with a 183-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .226 batting average against and 1.15 WHIP in 184 innings across 32 starts this season. He also led MLB with a 2.83 FIP and 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Gray might be the best value play on the market. His production matches those at the top of the market -- Snell and Gerrit. The respective Cy Young Winners are the only players who posted a higher OPS+ in 2023. He was far better than Nola, Montgomery and many other highly-coveted free agents this winter. His age, however, will limit his next contract.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Three years, $72 million
5. Jorge Soler, OF/DH
The starting pitching market is boisterous, but the rest of the needs will be hard to fill. This would make Soler, one of a handful of position player fits, a high priority this winter.
Soler is the best fit to fill the aforementioned need -- a right-handed slugging outfielder. The 31-year-old hit .250 with 60 extra-base hits including 36 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .853 OPS (128 OPS+) in 137 games for the Miami Marlins last season.
The 6-foot-4, 235-pound power-hitter has everything you'd want out of a slugger -- elite exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit percentage -- but is not the stereotypical masher. Soler posted a 24.3% strikeout rate, league average is 22%. He also posted a highly impressive 10.5% walk rate, which is in the 83rd percentile of qualified hitters.
Defensively, Soler logged -5 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average in 241 innings last season. He's best served as a designated hitter but could look much more serviceable playing half of his games in the short Fenway left field. It's logical to assume he'd be an upgrade over Yoshida, though neither will be in the American League Gold Glove race.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Three years, $45 million
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF
Gurriel had been one of the most underappreciated players in the game until this season when he finally made his first All-Star game and was closely followed amid his World Series pursuit that fell just short with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The 30-year-old hit .261 with 61 extra-base hits including 24 home runs, 82 RBIs and a .772 OPS (108 OPS+) in 145 games. Gurriel has a career .279 average and .791 OPS (115 OPS+) in six seasons. He's never posted an OPS+ under 108, which means he has been at least eight percent better than league average offensively in every season of his career.
The one advantage Gurriel has over the rest of the right-handed outfielders is his fielding ability. The veteran recorded 14 defensive runs saved and one out above average. He would be a perfect left fielder for the Red Sox, as he is a plus defender but has just average range. He would be an ideal fit to slot in front of the Green Monster to move Yoshida into the designated hitter role on a regular basis.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Four years, $56 million
7. Aaron Nola, SP
Nola has been marketed as one of the top free agents available this offseason. I find myself lower on him than most, mainly because I'm against the idea of paying $20-to-$25 million per year for a pitcher who could very well post a 4.00 ERA or higher over the course of his next contract.
However, the Red Sox are in desperate need of a pitcher who can eat innings and he's the best pitcher on the market to do so, which is why he's still on the list.
The Red Sox's starters finished with 774 1/3 innings last season which ranked No. 27 in MLB. Nola has made 32 starts in each of the last three seasons and at least 180 innings in each of those campaigns.
Nola would absolutely aid the Red Sox's rotation, but there are bona fide aces aplenty this winter and in the same price range. Nola falls short of that description.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Six years, $180 million
8. Teoscar Hernández, OF
Hernández was a player I thought would qualify more as a "break glass in case of emergency" candidate than a true free-agent target, but he's rising up in my rankings.
The 31-year-old slugger will produce at an above-league-average manner but does so with a high whiff, chase and strikeout rate. He's there to take big hacks and big hacks only. Normally, that would be a huge deterrent for me, but his overall impact combined with the potential to have league-average defense in left field is swaying me.
The 31-year-old hit .258 with 57 extra-base hits including 26 home runs, 93 RBIs and a .741 OPS in 160 games for the Seattle Mariners in what was his worst offensive season since his rookie year. With a career 118 OPS+, he'd likely mash in Boston but do so with a hefty amount of strikeouts.
The aforementioned Soler and Gurriel represent more complete players, but Hernández would be an upgrade over Adam Duvall as a right-handed hitting outfielder.
Defensively, Hernández was quite average in 2023, logging one defensive run saved and zero outs above average.
On a career scale, he has been quite a poor fielder but has improved yearly. He would grade out above Yoshida, which like Soler and Gurriel, would allow the Japanese slugger to become more of a designated hitter, keeping him fresh and unable to impact the game negatively in left field.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Four years, $80 million
9. Michael Wacha, SP
If the Red Sox go all-out for a true ace such as Yamamoto or Snell, the short-term, highly productive frontline starters become highly appealing. Gray is my top target in that category but Wacha is not far behind.
The 32-year-old has gone 25-6 with a 3.27 ERA (127 ERA+), 228-to-74 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .228 batting average against and 1.14 WHIP in 261 1/3 innings across 47 starts over the last two seasons since reinventing himself in Boston.
His production in San Diego in 2023 was nearly identical to his time in Boston one year prior. Wacha would be a perfect value addition to pair with another premier hurler this winter.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Three years, $36 million
10. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP
Would a reunion with E-Rod make sense? That would largely depend on the other moves Boston makes but he would certainly be an upgrade over the current rotation options.
Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA with a 143-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .227 batting average against and 1.15 WHIP in 152 2/3 innings pitched across 26 starts.
He was particularly dominant to open the year and finished with a 134 ERA+, the best of his career. The Red Sox should explore other options before turning to Rodriguez but cannot go wrong with a reunion in this case.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Five years, $80 million
11. Justin Turner, DH/UTL
The easiest way to improve the roster offensively and defensively would be to move Yoshida to the designated hitter role and to sign a right-handed hitting outfielder in his place, a point I've exhausted at this point.
Still, I'd be remiss to not include Turner on this list. The right-handed slugger gets a lot of credit for his off-the-field leadership, from player relations to his many philanthropic efforts. But he was also the most consistent player on the team last season and arguably the best offensive contributor in Boston.
Turner hit .276 with 54 extra-base hits including 23 home runs, 96 RBIs and a .800 OPS (114 OPS+) in 146 games in his debut season with the Red Sox. He would have produced at an even greater level had he not battled a heel injury for the bulk of the second half.
If the Red Sox plan to bring back Turner, the defense will be much harder to improve, but it's hard not to call him a fit after what he was able to do in his first season with the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox are not in love with Soler, Gurriel or Hernández, they can simply replug Turner back into his spot for one or two seasons while they scour future classes for the next big bat to target.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: One year, $14 million
12. Marcus Stroman, SP
Stroman is one of the harder players to project moving forward. The right-hander had one of the strangest seasons of the players on this list.
The 32-year-old posted a 3.95 ERA with a 119-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .231 batting average against and 1.26 WHIP in 136 2/3 innings with the Chicago Cubs this season.
His path to getting there, however, was not normal. Stroman led the National League with a 2.28 ERA on June 20 and appeared to be on his way to a massive payday. A couple of injuries placed him in the injured list midseason. When he returned, he posted an 11.30 ERA over six games.
Stroman still is a frontline starter and will covet some attention from the Red Sox, but his second half hampered his appeal this winter.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Three years, $63 million
13. Shota Imanaga, SP
Imanaga would be the hot international name that would be popping up around now if Yamamoto did not happen to be the most exciting Japanese prospect since Ohtani.
The 30-year-old posted a 2.80 ERA with a 174-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 1.05 WHIP in 148 innings this season across 22 starts.
Imanaga likely become a back-end starter at the big-league level, but there's a chance he ends up pitching like a No. 2 or No. 3 option. The southpaw is worth taking a shot on this winter, especially for the pitcher-needy Red Sox. That said, he's not exactly atop my list.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Four years, $52 million
14. Mitch Garver, C
Garver does not fill a need necessarily but would certainly bolster the roster. Connor Wong isn't going anywhere and Reese McGuire is a competent No. 2 option with a very affordable contract.
However, if the Red Sox were to make an unconventional splash, Garver would be a logical option.
The 32-year-old hit .270 with 30 extra-base hits including 19 home runs, 50 RBIs and a .870 OPS (134 OPS+) in 87 games during the regular season. Despite playing part-time behind All-Star catcher Jonah Heim, Garver racked up 2.1 bWAR. For perspective, McGuire posted a -0.2 bWAR.
Garver's price tag could get out of hand, but he's a player for the Red Sox to check in on throughout the season.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Two years, $32 million
15. Matt Moore, RP
Moore has been one of the best relievers in baseball since fully committing to the role in 2022.
The 34-year-old posted a 2.20 ERA with a 143-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .207 batting average against and 1.17 WHIP in 126 2/3 innings over the last two seasons.
Moore also happens to be a southpaw, which the Red Sox could use after the failed Joely Rodriguez experiment. Brennan Bernadino bailed out Boston big-time as a mid-season acquisition but cannot be relied upon to post a 143 ERA+ from the left side in 2024.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: N/A
16. Michael Lorenzen, SP
Once again, Lorenzen represents a short-term value play, which Boston should be intrigued by. They absolutely should spend but that doesn't mean to lock into a bunch of bad contracts, as they did after the 2018 World Series Championship under former president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
Lorenzen posted a 4.18 ERA with a 111-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .265 batting average against and 1.46 WHIP in 153 innings to earn his first All-Star nod. Lorenzen fell off in the second half post-trade to the Philadelphia Phillies but did plenty to establish himself as a starter.
The 31-year-old would be a solid option to bolster the middle of the rotation without overpaying.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: One year, $11 million
17. Héctor Neris, RP
Neris is coming off an incredible season for the Houston Astros and will be rewarded for his production this winter.
The 34-year-old posted a 1.71 ERA with a 77-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .174 batting average against and 1.05 WHIP in 68 1/3 innings this season.
Neris cannot be counted on to produce at that level moving forward but his career 3.24 ERA and 129 ERA+ over his 10-year career is plenty of evidence to suggest he could be a solid high-leverage option alongside Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin next season.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: N/A
18. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF
Merrifield heads an uninspiring list of free-agent middle infielders. Boston would be wise to explore trade opportunities before making their decision on second base, but if they were to hit the open market, Merrifield is the clear top dog.
The 34-year-old hit .272 with 38 extra-base hits including 11 home runs, 67 RBIs and a .700 OPS (94 OPS+) in 145 games for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2023. He also stole 26 bases on 36 attempts.
The three-time All-Star has divided his time between corner outfield and second base in recent years, which could aid Boston's lack of versatile right-handed hitters. He's serviceable at both positions but would not bolster the team's fielding ability in any meaningful manner.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: Two years, $19 million
19. Erick Fedde, SP
The 30-year-old is not going to fix the Red Sox's pitching staff, but the organization needs depth and Fedde could be a high-upside option.
The former Washington National spent the 2023 season in the Korean Baseball Organization and dominated. The right-hander went 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA, asinine 209-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 0.95 WHIP in 180 1/3 innings across 30 starts.
Fedde reportedly has found something with his "sweeper" which helped him excel in Korea. Fedde went 21-33 with a 5.41 ERA with the Nationals between 2017-22. It will be interesting to see if he turned his career around or simply feasted on lower competition. Even if Korea's talent level rivaled Double-A, it would bode well for his ability heading back stateside.
Tim Britton's Contract Projection: N/A
Just missed the list: Kenta Maeta, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Craig Kimbrel, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Duvall
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