- There's a familiar face at No. 1 of our Top 100 NBA players of 2017 and two agonizing debates in the top five: Kevin Durant vs. Stephen Curry and Chris Paul vs. Russell Westbrook.
SI.com is proud to offer our list of the Top 100 NBA players of 2017, an exhaustive exercise that seeks to define who will be the league's best players in the 2016-17 season.
Given the wide variety of candidates involved and the deep analytical resources available, no single, definitive criterion was used to form this list. Instead, rankings were assigned based on a fluid combination of subjective assessment and objective data, including: per-game and per-minute statistics, splits, advanced metrics, play-type data and more. This list is an earnest attempt to evaluate each player in a vacuum. As a result, future prospects beyond this season did not play a part in the ranking process. Our sole concern was how players are likely to perform in the coming season alone.
Injuries and injury risks are an inevitable component of that judgment. Past performance (postseason included) weighed heavily in our assessment, with a skew toward the recent. First-year players were not included for that reason, among others. A predictive element also came into play with the anticipated improvement of certain younger players, as well as the possible decline of aging veterans. Salary was not taken into consideration. Otherwise, players were ordered based on their complete games—offense and defense both, along with everything in between.
This season’s list welcomes 23 newcomers while sending off Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and a host of others. Some players who had made every previous Top 100 cut fell out of the mix entirely. A few made unexpected pushes for first-time inclusion. Injuries and age-related decline also shook up the middle of our ranking dramatically, transforming tiers that had previously been dominated by Top-100 mainstays.
Even with all those changes, rounding out the top 100 included some tough calls. The list of notable omissions is dotted with players both well regarded and largely deserving, though lines ultimately had to be drawn somewhere. For those interested in understanding more about the ranking process and the limitations of this exercise in general, make a quick detour here.
Please feel free to take a look back to SI.com’s Top 100 Players of 2016, 2015 and 2014. A special thanks, as always, to those resources that make researching a list like this possible: Basketball-Reference, NBA.com, Nylon Calculus, Synergy Sports, and 82Games.
Looking for a seat on the Devin Booker hype train? If so, be prepared to squeeze in between the likes of LeBron James and Drake. The buzz around Booker, a 2015 lottery pick, has steadily climbed since he made the most of Phoenix’s lost year to average 19.2 PPG and 4.1 APG after the All-Star break. His brief cameo at the 2016 Las Vegas Summer League was met with rave reviews, as he displayed the knockdown shooting stroke that got him drafted, some nice playmaking instincts in traffic, and a fiery competitiveness that suggests he’s only just getting started. At 19, Booker is the youngest player and only teenager on this year’s Top 100, a fact that should inspire awe and caution alike. Development at this stage tends to come in fits and starts, and Booker will need to reclaim his role in Phoenix’s backcourt with veterans Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight back from injury. Still, Booker possesses enough natural talent, scoring ability and comfort on the ball to make betting on a sophomore breakthrough feel like a safe proposition. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Booker’s rookie stats compare favorably to Bradley Beal’s age-19 numbers
+ Picked at No. 13, Booker ranked fourth in his class in points per game
– His atrocious -3.87 Defensive Real-Plus Minus ranked 171st out of 174 guards
– Booker's 3P% tumbled hard as his usage increased after the All-Star break
The “Butt Dunk” was one of the most ingenious Slam Dunk Contest entries ever. Ever. But Aaron Gordon is already much more than a dunker. Make no mistake, the bounce and energy behind Gordon’s slamming prowess is the central force in his overall game at this point: he puts his leaping ability and high activity level to good use in myriad ways, pursuing second-chance points, clearing the defensive glass, skying for the occasional weakside help block and even pushing the pace in transition by himself occasionally. Although Gordon was only a part-time starter in his second season, he got a lot done in the minutes he filled, grading out well in all of the major advanced stats. As he enters Year Three—and prepares to play for his fourth coach (counting interims) and alongside a host of new frontline additions—the 20-year-old Gordon looks poised to blossom from role player into priority. If he can continue to show progress on his corner three and playmaking for others, Gordon has a shot at being the type of versatile, do-everything forward that gives opponents nightmares. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ He is younger entering his third season than when Blake Griffin made his NBA debut
+ He led the Magic with 72 dunks last season, nearly double his next closest teammate
– He played the four most of last year, but will likely shift due to Ibaka, Biyombo's arrival
– Although he’s made strides at the line (up to 66.8% last year, there’s still work to be done
Knight's game struggles to satisfy when used in volume. Last season, Knight dropped a career-high 19.6 points per game as he helped to initiate offense for the hapless Suns. Implicit in his role were problems of scale. Putting the ball in Knight’s hands on a full-time basis runs a team headfirst into his limitations: the inconsistency of his mid-range shooting, the rashes of turnovers, the costs of the plays he doesn’t quite see developing. These issues could be quieted were Knight positioned to play a lesser role, though tradeoffs in control offset directly with his production. The very thing that sets him apart—that nice scoring total—is a function of his skill set being pushed beyond its optimal range. Teams could do worse. Knight is very much the kind of worker that brings an atmospheric benefit, to say nothing of the fact that he’ll be 25 years old next season and could plausibly improve. It’s unfortunately worth noting, however, that injuries have cost Knight 49 games over the past two seasons. One month it’s his hip, the next his ankle. There’s the outline of a good player here, but one qualified by periodic unavailability, ordinary defense, and the concessions of volume. (Last year: 78)
+ Creates offense primarily for himself, but isn’t solely a gunner
+ Reasonably effective tough-shot maker despite his shortcomings
– High usage rate has yet to translate to team’s offensive success
– Seems to have leveled out as a merely solid three-point shooter
Even at 39, Ginobili is the kind of playmaker around whom all seem to flourish. Small, scoring guards are allowed to follow their bliss. Spot shooters find the ball in their hands off of wild, whip passes and quick swings alike. The misdirection running throughout Ginobili’s game makes him all the more effective in setting up rolling bigs a beat earlier or later than the defense might expect. You live with the reckless streaks and the porous defense because he brings a dimension to the game that no other role player can. The step Manu lost along the way changed his game but couldn’t derail it. Still he found the angles to average 17.6 points (on strong shooting percentages), 5.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes in his 14th season with the Spurs. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ High-level playmaker capable of running an offense or filling a seamless facilitator
+ Outstanding spot shooter with a counter driving game defenses have to respect
– Side effects of his game include: rapid aging and vocal strain on the part of his coach
– At a stage in his career where his minutes (and games) need to be carefully monitored
The Cavaliers' title was validation for the much-maligned Smith, whose immaturity on and off the court made him a target for critics over the years. To secure his first ring and become one of the world’s most famous shirtless men, Smith (12.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.7 APG) had to evolve from a streaky freelance scorer early in his career into a narrower 3-and-D role. Playing alongside LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, Smith has virtually abandoned his off-the-dribble game, morphing instead into a valuable floor-spacing shooter. While his usage rate, free throw rate, assist rate and dunks all fell to career lows, Smith knocked down a career-high 204 three-pointers at a blistering 40% clip. Defensively, the 31-year-old Smith is still quick enough to put effective pressure defense on the perimeter, and he ramped up his effort level as the Cavaliers closed in on the title. Getting the best out of Smith requires the right circumstances—no bright lights, a veteran-dominated locker room, stars to create clean looks for him—but he proved last season that he could play big, valuable minutes on a team that won it all. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ His +166 raw plus-minus in 21 playoff games trailed only LeBron James (+209)
+ James credits him with an assist on “The Block” because he got back in transition
– He has attempted fewer FTs in the last three years combined than he did in 2013
– As of press time, he had yet to come to terms on a new contract with the Cavaliers
Fournier doesn’t much bother with frivolities like defense or rebounding, but through four NBA seasons he’s carved out a niche as a smooth scorer. The man gets buckets; defenses that lose sight of Fournier for even a moment are likely to get burned by him sliding into an open jumper on the weak side or darting around a screen toward the rim. Slot in Fournier as a complementary scorer and he can fill in the gaps while giving an offense some flourish. Scoring specialists, by type, tend not to be the most judicious with their shot selection. Fournier’s case is helped by the fact that he stands as an exception, both in terms of where he takes his shots and how. The mid-range has never much called to him. Fournier takes 42% of his shots from behind the arc and another 30% at the rim, creating a distribution that buoys his shooting percentages. There’s also enough patience in his game to work around would-be isos and iffy, contested jumpers for better looks. Sixty-four NBA players averaged at least 15 points per game last season. Among them, Fournier ranked ninth in true shooting. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Excellent three-point shooter and one of the best (41.1%) above the break
+ Racks up points within a role, doesn’t need to deviate to be effective
– No-show defender who hasn’t shown much aptitude in coverage
– Only a so-so passer, capping the value of his work off the dribble
To be big, mobile, and active goes a long way in the modern NBA. Those underlying qualities alone make Zeller a helpful team defender—quick enough to cover the necessary ground and long enough to contest shots at the rim. Those strengths are mirrored, too, on offense through the speed of Zeller’s rolls and the strength of his finishes. Zeller doesn’t command the ball nor could he do all that much with it if he did. Most of his modest scoring comes by diving through open space and making himself available. Its an endeavor more of persistence than creativity, yet on balance it offers just the kind of dependable, straight-line action that many NBA offenses need. In lieu of the spectacular, Zeller operates fills a predictable lane with solid, two-way play. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Balanced, unassuming contributor who doesn’t take anything off the table
+ Found his comfort zone as soon as his team gave him the space needed to succeed
– After three years in the league, Zeller has yet to show any reliable shooting range
– Most comfortable as an NBA player in a limited, tertiary role
The eye test (9.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.8 APG) can lead to all sorts of conflicting conclusions about Mason Plumlee. In the first round of the playoffs against the Clippers, the 26-year-old Duke product was a force, grabbing rebounds by the dozens, dishing assists like a point guard, and going head-to-head with DeAndre Jordan. In the next round against the Warriors, though, Plumlee looked hapless as he struggled mightily to finish around the hoop and was regularly pushed out of the paint. So which is it? On balance, the advanced stats treat Plumlee’s all-around game kindly, as he ranked in the top 70 in Player Efficiency Rating, Win Shares and Real Plus-Minus last season. Terry Stotts deserves credit for playing to his center’s strengths, turning him loose as a high-post distributor and keeping him out of less efficient post-up isolations. Perhaps the biggest question about Plumlee concerns his ceiling: Can he get much better if he’s not a true one-on-one option, if he’s not a scoring threat outside five feet, and if he grades out as a shaky pick-and-roll defender? (Last year: Not ranked)
+ His 226 assists ranked third among centers behind Pau Gasol and Al Horford
+ His mobility makes him a target in pick-and-roll scenarios and secondary transition
– His 18.8 turnover % was the highest among centers who played at least 2,000 minutes
– Opponents regularly break out the “Hack-a-Shaq” to exploit his career 58.3 FT% shooting
Only Matthews would return from a ruptured Achilles tendon to lead his team in minutes played. His resolve is undeniable. Matthews has forged a career from grit, both in the macro sense as an undrafted player and in the micro sense of working his way through every possession. None of that has changed. Last we saw Matthews, he was doggedly chasing Kevin Durant around the floor, doing all he could to bother a superstar with a seven-inch height advantage. What has changed is the dividends of Matthews’s hard work; try as he might, Matthews could never explode off the dribble or connect on open shots like he did prior to his injury. At his best last season, Matthews was a quality spot shooter and a hard-working defender. That alone isn’t generally enough to rank in the league’s top 100 players. As such, we’re projecting some improvement for Matthews in his second full season back from debilitating injury. To return as quickly as Matthews did shredded all reasonable timetables. To average 34 minutes in 83 total games (between the regular season and playoffs) shattered even optimistic projections. Yet recovering from an Achilles tear—to the extent that one can—takes more time and more rest. This season should mark the return of a more able Matthews, if still one noticeably diminished from his prime years. (Last year: 99)
+ When healthy, Matthews had the balance in his game to make him an ideal complement
+ Utterly relentless
– We still don’t quite know how closely Matthews will be able to approximate his prime
– Historically, Achilles injuries have not been kind to the careers of NBA players
Biyombo might be a specialist, but he picked the right thing to specialize in. One year after generating limited interest as a free agent, the 2011 lottery pick parlayed a strong postseason run with the Raptors into a four-year, $70 million contract with the Magic. Orlando is paying for elite interior defense: The impossibly long-armed Biyombo (5.5 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.6 BPG) aces the major advanced stats when it comes to protecting the rim, he grades out well as a pick-and-roll defender, and he plays with intensity. As a result, Toronto’s defensive efficiency improved nearly four points when he took the court last season, jumping from No. 23 in 2014-15 to No. 11 last year. Unfortunately, Biyombo, 24, is still a one-way guy: he usually looks uncomfortable with the ball in his hands, he struggles to get his shot in traffic, he’s not a viable option from outside three feet, and he can’t be deployed as a playmaker in pick-and-roll scenarios, meaning his team’s offensive efficiency tends to take a major hit when he’s on the court. As Toronto found out last season though, when he was pressed into a greater role when Jonas Valanciunas was sidelined with injury, BIyombo is just good enough at what he does to make up for what he doesn’t do. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ He ranked No. 8 in the NBA in FG% allowed at the rim last year (via NylonCalculus.com)
+ He grabbed a Raptors franchise-record 26 rebounds in Game 3 of the East finals
– According to Real Plus Minus, his offensive impact ranked 63rd among 71 centers
– He has registered more than twice as many turnovers as assists in each of his five seasons
In case it got lost somewhere between “He looks like Chance the Rapper” and “He started a war between Nike and Under Armour,” Kent Bazemore enjoyed a quality breakout campaign last season. This was a long time coming for the 27-year-old, who went undrafted out of Old Dominion and worked his way up from the D-League and the Summer League circuit to secure a starting role for the Hawks last season. A hyperactive, long two guard, Bazemore (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG) pulled in a four-year, $70 million contract this summer by proving that he could fill the 3-and-D role fairly well. Although he’s not quite a knockdown shooter or a lockdown perimeter defender, Bazemore has the physical tools, athleticism and enough newfound control to serve as a helpful contributor on both ends. His positional versatility on the defensive end, in particular, makes him a valuable piece for the Hawks and the type of guy who would find a way to fit in on just about any contender. Going forward, Bazemore is probably best served by staying in his lane, as his decision-making with the ball can be erratic and much of his offense is generated by Atlanta’s emphasis on ball movement. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ His $15.7 million for 2016-17 is more than 33 times larger what he made in 2012-13
+ Less than 3% of his field-goal attempts came within 10-15 ft. (via basketball-reference)
– He rated “Below average” as a pick-and-roll ball-handler last season, per Synergy Sports
– His numbers could take a hit with the losses of skilled passers Jeff Teague and Al Horford
Anderson is perhaps the NBA’s purest form of the stretch-four archetype, both in value and complication. Much of his contributions are rooted in where he stands on the floor and how that changes the geometry of an opposing defense. Opponents that elect to guard him closely wind up pulling one of their defenders out of the rotational mix, cinching whatever room for error they might have had. Leave him unattended and Anderson, a career 37.7% three-point shooter, will burn you from the perimeter or spring inside for offensive rebounds. Stationing him on the outside is a simple way to force an opponent into compromise. Defenses, however, have a better understanding than ever of how to manage players like Anderson. Some choose to play off of Anderson and rely on a late close-out, particularly now that his three-point shooting has drifted down from the 39-40% range. Many will task a wing to guard Anderson, particularly when one of his non-shooting teammates can provide a hiding spot for an opposing big. Anderson has a decent enough post game to punish some smaller defenders, but even pulling him into that space—and away from the arc—is a mitigation of his value. Under the best of circumstances, Anderson can still tug at the defense and clear out the lane for his teammates. Under the worst, his offense dwindles to the point that his slow-footed defense eclipses his positive contributions. There’s a delicate balance to Anderson’s game that has never been more difficult to keep at equilibrium. (Last year: No. 72)
+ Put up 20.2 points per 36 minutes last year despite evolution of defense against him
+ Nudges opponents into adjustments that might not always be familiar or comfortable
– Value on offense is too often counterbalanced by what he gives up defensively
– Has only once in his career played 67 games over a full, 82-game season
Enes Kanter’s basketball biography would be titled, “From Unstoppable To Unplayable (And Back Again).” The 2016 playoffs provided the latest example of Kanter’s vacillating worth: After relentlessly pounding the Spurs in the West semis, the Thunder’s polarizing big man was played off the court by the Warriors in the West finals. Kanter’s story is similar to many other big men who are trying to find a home in the changing NBA game: he’s a terror on the boards and he’s a low-post scoring machine, but his lack of rim-protecting ability and his molasses lateral quickness make him a major liability on the other end. Oklahoma City smartly moved Kanter (12.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG) to the bench last season, where he drew Sixth Man of the Year buzz by having his way with second-unit big men offensively and hiding (to a degree) defensively. The off-season departures of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka will force Billy Donovan to make wholesale changes next season, which could be both good and bad for the 24-year-old Kanter. On the plus side, he should expect more minutes, more shots and more time playing with pick-and-roll partner Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, though, his funnel-like defense will also be on full display now that Oklahoma City no longer has much protective length. Most likely, the debate over Kanter’s worth will remain unresolved by this time next season, although the volume of discourse could be significantly louder now that more will be asked of him. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ His 16.7 Offensive Rebound Percentage led the NBA last season
+ The Kanter/Westbrok duo posted an excellent off. rating (120) in '16 (via NBAWowy.com)
– His -1.50 Defensive Real Plus Minus ranked 50th out of 51 centers
– He looks like he’s ice-skating in a sandbox when he switches defensively onto guards
Faried is a bundle of kinetic energy that’s both a chore for opponents to contain and a challenge for his own team to fully harness. His rim running, cutting, and board crashing can define a game. Too often, though, Faried is resigned to the fits and starts that come with being a smallish big of limited ball skills and range. Those working around Faried are restrained by all he cannot do—especially on defense—to the point that his bursts of activity wash against the whole of his minutes on the floor. It’s theoretically possible to find a big who could play the perfect counterpart to Faried: a floor-stretching, shot-blocking, playmaking, full-time center. That counterpart player is also a freaking superstar. For all the value to be gained through Faried’s outstanding transition play and bulk rebounding, it speaks volumes that the conditions for his suitable fit are nothing short of a particular subset of the best players in the league. Faried is fine and flawed in any other case. (Last year: No. 86)
+ Ranked third in offensive rebound rate last season
+ Reasonably effective post player, matchup provided
– Crummy defensive instincts lead him to misread rotations
– Shot 32.3% on mid-range shots last season and attempted just a single three-pointer
Effective defense needn’t be obvious or demonstrative. Johnson exercises his influence in relative quiet, shuffling through his assignments with balance and awareness. The way that Johnson moves conveys a clear understanding of space and how to navigate it; he always seems to be in the mix, shading this way or that to challenge an offense’s development. Want rim protection? Johnson will lurk behind plays and dart over to alter a layup attempt. Need pressure on the perimeter? Johnson is perfectly comfortable showing on the pick-and-roll and hanging with quicker guards until the defense resets. There’s value, too, in the fact that Johnson knows how to pick his battles. Opponents that don’t demand close coverage don’t get it. Half-hearted screens don’t automatically trigger his help, as Johnson will often guide his teammates through while maintaining good position. It’s always the little things—the box-out angles, the screening persistence, the feel for when his rotation might be needed—that separate Johnson from so many of his peers. The man has a nose for detail. (Last year: No. 89)
+ Allowed a similar % at the rim to blocks leader Hassan Whiteside (per Nylon Calculus)
+ Critical defender on one of the NBA’s top defenses
– Little in the way of ball skills; reliant on cuts, rolls, and put-backs to score
– Logged just 22.8 MPG last season, with some time ceded to small-ball alternatives
In Year Two, Rodney Hood completely flipped the script from “Boy, he really slid on draft night” to “Boy, a lot of teams regret that he really slid on draft night.” It’s no wonder that teams like the Thunder and Grizzlies are kicking themselves for passing on Hood (14.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.7 APG), who went to the Jazz at No. 23 in 2014. There’s a lot to love about Hood’s game: he can play with or without the ball, he can initiate in pick-and-roll settings or space on the wing, he can read team defenses and find the open man, he can swing multiple positions on both offense and defense, and he can handle playing starter minutes in the West even though he’s only 23. Meanwhile, Hood did all of that while playing on a Jazz team that had brutal point guard play and a laundry list of major injuries. There’s no telling how high his utility might climb if he was cast as a third or fourth option behind established superstars, or if Utah’s core group can make it through an entire season together unscathed. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ His 8.1 career Win Shares rank No. 1 among 2014 draft class members.
+ Hood, a lefty, studied James Harden to hone his deliberate style in high pick-and-rolls
– He's a mediocre defender for his position, with room to improve
– He can grow as a closer, shooting just 40% overall (and 24.2 3P%) in clutch situations
NBA history tells us that 20- and 21-year-olds are not meant to be impact defenders. Their spectacular plays are generally overwhelmed by their physical and mental shortcomings. It’s a testament to the singularity of Noel that he’s now made our list over the past two seasons in spite of that. So rare is his defensive profile that it begs exception; his steal rate in each of his first two seasons ranks among the best of all time for a big, and only truly elite company (Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson) matched his output in terms of blocks and steals. It was only with Noel on the floor that the Sixers, lacking as they were, came anywhere close to defensive respectability. To get all of this from a player still feeling his way through team defensive concepts is stunning. Noel isn’t in the Top 100 because he gets every nuance just right. He’s included—and ranked this favorably—because of all that he’s able to offer in spite of his mistakes. (Last year: No. 97)
+ Up to 52.1% shooting from the field last season
+ One of the brightest defensive prospects in the league
– Among the worst in the league in true turnover percentage (per Nylon Calculus)
– Still very lean; movable on hard drives, box outs, and post-ups
On a minute-by-minute basis, Andrew Bogut remains in the “NBA’s best defensive player” conversation: he blocks shots, contests shots, dissuades drives, handles pick-and-rolls, understands tendencies, cleans the defensive glass, and uses his fouls as well as anybody in the league. Unfortunately for Bogut, there’s no “Turn off injuries” button in real life like there is in “NBA 2K.” As a result, his superb defensive work and his entertaining playmaking from the high post get hit with big asterisks. Even last season, when he appeared in 70 games for Golden State primarily as a starter, Bogut logged fewer total minutes than numerous backup centers. The combination of an off-season trade to Dallas, a thin frontline surrounding him, and a contract that expires next summer sets up Bogut for a solid showcase year in 2016-17. The looming question, though, is whether the 31-year-old Bogut has enough left in the tank to expand out of the intentionally limited role he filled with the Warriors. (Last year: No. 76)
+ He led the entire NBA in Defensive Real Plus Minus (+5.45) this season
+ He averaged four assists per 36 minutes last season, ranking second among 7-footers
– He has averaged 1,191 minutes per year (roughly 14.5 MPG over all 82 games) for the last five seasons
– Coming off season-ending knee injury in Finals, but played for Australia at the Rio Olympics
There’s a delicious contrast to be found between Robin Lopez’s zany interests and the eminently overlooked nature of his game. By day, Lopez is a Star Wars superfan, comic book freak and Disney addict who dives into his passions as deeply as can be, often joining hundreds of like-minded devotees in mass celebration. By night, Lopez sets screens, dives hard to the hoop, flings in clunky hook shots, crashes the offensive glass, protects the basket area, and diligently boxes out—all of the underappreciated and forgettable things that ensure his more recognizable teammates can get their numbers and his teams can win a few more games. He’s rarely been a player of note on the NBA’s postseason stage, and even his new coach, Fred Hoiberg, accidentally called him “Brook” (his more decorated twin brother’s name) during a press conference this summer. Truthfully, man NBA fans probably knows him better as “The guy with the weird hair that fights with mascots” more than anything that has to do with his actual job description. Even so, Lopez is a very fine all-around center who can be a positive contributor on both sides of the ball if the personnel around him plays to his strengths and helps cover up his weaknesses. (Last year: No. 84)
+ Fared better than Derrick Rose in PER, Win Shares and Real Plus Minus in 2015-16
+ His 45.5 FG% allowed at the rim ranked in the top 10 among bigs (per NylonCalculus.com)
– His lack of mobility and lateral quickness limits him on the defensive end
– Has a tendency to clog the paint, which could prove especially problematic in Chicago
The basketball world has a way of glossing over the Trevor Arizas—those players who fill a specific role on offense and take on thankless defensive assignments in a huge portion of minutes. Any superstar would have his life made easier by having Ariza around to anchor the rotation. Nearly 3,000 regular season minutes would be filled with strong perimeter shooting and versatile defense. Drives to the hoop are made easier by the fact that Ariza shoots 42.1% from the corners. New lineup possibilities are created by his willingness to wrestle with bigger opponents at the 4. Ariza isn’t quite as athletic as he once was, but through length and persistence alone he makes for a solid defender across three positions. Any healthy team ecosystem needs contributors like him in order to function fully. (Last year: No. 65)
+ Has abandoned delusions of grandeur in favor of a more controlled, efficient game
+ Excellent at using length to generate turnovers
– Useful as a stretch–four but can be pushed around and worked over on the glass
– Declining speed makes him less viable against quicker guards
Rudy Gay and the Kings have arguably brought out the worst in each other. Gay has more or less stuck to his inefficient, isolation-heavy offense and laissez faire defense, while Sacramento has done him no favors by constantly cycling through GMs, coaches and point guards instead of constructing an on-court setup that might make better use of his physical gifts. Along the way, Gay (17.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.7 APG) has passed age 30, made slight improvement on his poor shot selection diet, and publicly expressed confusion with the Kings’ organizational direction. While Gay in Sacramento feels a bit doomed, there’s still a nagging sensation that he could be a salvageable asset in the right scenario. Couldn’t Gay age more gracefully and effectively if cast in a smaller and supporting offensive role and placed in a winning environment that would push him to play defense and help provide some cover from scrutiny and individual expectations? (Last year: No. 52)
+ Touches fell with Rajon Rondo's arrival, suggesting he’s a candidate to bounce back
+ Gay says he “feel[s] better than I have in at least two years" after off-season Achilles surgery
– Ranks outside the top 100 players league-wide in PER, Win Shares and Real Plus Minus
– He’s won three playoff games total during his 10-year career
At just 22, Capela has the profile of an emerging two-way force. Last season he was a per-minute wonder for the Rockets, churning out 13.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, and 1.4 steals over 36. Some of that production is bound to wither as his minutes scale up. What’s likely to remain is still a valuable, important player—particularly within the context of what a modern center is asked to do. Capela has shown no interest in calling for the ball in the post. He screens and he rolls, over and over, to keep the offense flowing. When the ball comes his way, Capela has the hands to make catches on the move and finish strong at the rim. When it doesn’t, he stays active with cuts and pursues potential rebounds. All of this from a big with real defensive promise. At minimum, Capela is a big-time rebounder and capable finisher who will bring energy to a defense. That’s a hell of a place to start. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Quick, lanky shot-blocker who can wreak havoc through activity.
+ Committed rebounder who punishes opponents for failing to box him out.
– Strictly a catch-and-finish player. Doesn’t yet have the footwork or ball skills to do much else on the move.
– Slight enough that he gets pushed around by opposing centers.
The breakout surprise of last year’s rookie class is a Gasolian assist factory. Already an offense can go a long way by putting the ball in Jokic’s hands and swirling around him; the 21-year-old keeps one eye trained to the backdoor at all times, even as he gauges the timing and progression of a play’s primary option. If nothing materializes, Jokic can face up into an open jumper or back his man down for a soft hook shot. Any big with this robust a skill set opens up new angles and strategies for his team to explore. So much is on the table for Jokic—post, roll, facilitate, spot up, dive in for rebounds—that most any form of usage makes sense. Beginning a career with that full scope of possibility makes Jokic one of the more variable players on this list. Some of what holds him back in ranking relative to his peers is the fact that opposing defenses have yet to hone in specifically on his game. Jokic earned his place in the scouting report and now he’ll be forced to reckon with it, as all young players do, before settling his place in the league hierarchy. This ranking reflects our optimism for how he’ll deal with more advanced scrutiny. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Solid enough defender at both big positions
+ Ended season on-par with Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan in offensive rebounding rate
– Limited experience; averaged just 21.7 minutes per game in his lone NBA season
– Hasn’t yet encountered much specific, high-level scheming at even a regular season level
Orlando’s decision to dump Tobias Harris, now 24, to Detroit for next to nothing in return last February remains one of the biggest head-scratchers of 2016. Harris (16.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.6 APG after the trade) is well on his way to becoming a quality stretch forward: he has a little pop to his individual offensive game without hijacking the show, he has the makings of a quality catch-and-shoot option to complement Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond, and he should be able to get by on the boards as the NBA continues to downsize. Yes, Harris is probably destined to be a liability on the defensive end, even as he gets closer to his prime, but that’s not necessarily a death sentence for stretch players with his less-than-overwhelming build. Although he’s about to enter his sixth season, Harris still has some unscratched breakout potential: so much of his career was spent playing for teams going nowhere and for coaches that never established the offensive structure to put him in position for success. So far, Detroit has looked like a much better fit. (Last year: No. 78)
+ Detroit’s offensive efficiency improved from 105.5 to 108.9 upon his arrival (per NBAWowy.com)
+ Harris showed potential to be an excellent spot-up shooter with the Pistons
– Detroit’s defensive efficiency slipped from 104.6 to 108.6 upon his arrival (per NBAWowy.com)
– His tweener status bites him on both ends of pick-and-roll defense scenarios
Mahinmi grew up in the NBA as a project player—big, raw, energetic, and foul-prone. Defense gave him a niche to excuse his lack of ball skills and slot him into a particular, finite role. Then, in a single season at age 29, Mahinmi transformed from a one-dimensional specialist into a surprisingly capable two-way player. It was as if Mahinmi had struck an oddly humble deal at a crossroads: his soul to take for the sudden ability to execute fluid pick-and-rolls at a professional level. No more was Mahinmi fumbling or fouling his way to the rim. Most Pacers games would feature some play—a read and pass on the move, some smooth footwork into a coordinated finish—that was clearly beyond the old Mahinmi of old. These sequences were too technical and too regular to be flukes. This is apparently who Mahinmi is now. The new iteration of Mahinmi is both a player capable of steadying one of the top defenses in the league and helping an offense nudge an offense along. Even a somewhat balanced center is a player of considerable value. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Surprisingly effective on hook shots and flip shots in the high paint
+ One of the better defensive centers in the league (finished No. 5 in DRPM)
– Little in the way of post-up skills. Mid-range jumper too erratic to be reliable
– Still gets into foul trouble more often than you’d like for a starting center
Vucevic put up big numbers in back-to-back seasons for the Magic, but knock on his stat line and it rings a bit hollow. There’s only so much value to his 18.2 points per game when it results in one of the league’s lesser offenses. Obviously Vucevic isn’t solely to blame for all that held back Orlando’s offense last season, though the fact that his high usage and notable production didn’t elevate the Magic speaks to a certain caveat. Still Vucevic deserves credit for making the most of compromised spacing. Every roll to the rim and post-up he’s made has been crowded and pressured by a defense that edged in from the Magic’s non-threats at the three-point line. Vucevic has produced in spite of that and even added some spacing himself by connecting on 46% of his 7.6 mid-range jumpers per game. There is no question that Vucevic can produce when given opportunity. What’s less reliable are the returns on that investment on the team level and his ability to offset his lacking rotational defense. (Last year: No. 67)
+ Scorer in bulk who can sop up usage and churn out buckets
+ Decent passer even in a complicated setting
– Defense remains a glaring problem. Unlikely to contribute to an elite defense.
– Has yet to contribute to a winning offense (or even an average one)
It’s pretty easy to bet on a breakthrough year for Victor Oladipo, who was dealt by the Magic to the Thunder in the Serge Ibaka trade. For starters, the Magic’s recent track record of getting the most of their prospects is not great. More importantly, though, the 24-year-old Oladipo will take the court next to a legit superstar (Russell Westbrook) for the first time in his career, and will leave behind a host of floor-cramping players in Orlando who no doubt contributed to his suboptimal offensive efficiency. In the three years since he was selected at No. 2 in the 2013 draft, Oladipo has shown himself to be a good (but not great) scorer, an intriguing pick-and-roll playmaker, a shaky outside shooter and a plus defender whose athletic tools suggest he could take a step forward. Oladipo’s arrival in Oklahoma City sets him up nicely for what could be a massive payday as a restricted free agent next summer. While Oladipo’s ongoing development won’t heal the wounds left by Kevin Durant’s departure, it will be a key determining factor in whether the Thunder can make it work with their new core or whether a true rebuilding effort is required. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ His age-23 production from last season (16/5/4, 4.9 Win Shares) is in the same ballpark as Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker's
+ Ranked in the top 90 in Player Efficiency Rating, Win Shares and Real Plus Minus
– He shot just 33.8% overall and 26.9% from deep while registering more turnovers than assists in clutch situations last season.
– He has never played for a top–20 offense
Let’s go ahead and give DeMarre Carroll a mulligan. Last season was the nightmare after the dream: The good vibes from his 2014–15 career year in Atlanta and the expectations that built with his cash-out contract with Toronto came crashing down thanks to a season-altering knee injury. The 30-year-old Carroll (11 PPG, 4.7 RPG) appeared in just 26 games and missed three solid months before rushing back for the playoffs. That was no way to build chemistry and trust with the Raptors’ existing core. While Carroll was gone, however, his basic skill-set only got more valuable. A complementary offensive option who plays to his strengths (outside shooting, cutting) and knows his role, Carroll can handle multiple positions on the defensive end and relishes the dirty work. Assuming he’s back to full health, Carroll should have every opportunity to reestablish himself with the Raptors. (Last year: No. 81)
+ Still grades out as an “Excellent” spot-up shooter (per Synergy Sports)
+ Although he wasn't 100% healthy, he helped Toronto make the East finals for the first time in franchise history
– Toronto’s best playoff-ready lineup might feature Carroll, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Cory Joseph and Valanciunas. That group logged just 36 minutes together last year.
– After a career year in 2014–15, he placed outside the top 100 in Player Efficiency Rating, Win Shares and Real Plus Minus last season
The world simply needs more combo guards like Bradley. Offensively, Boston’s 6'2" shooting guard has developed into a solid floor-spacing spot-up shooter and has honed an opportunistic and crafty off-ball cutting game that keeps defenders honest. Defensively, Bradley is a tone-setter who can flip seamlessly between guard positions: his aggressive on-ball style, quick hands and tireless approach helped drive the Celtics to a top-five defensive efficiency rating. Even better, Bradley (15.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.1 APG) avoids most of the bad habits usually associated with combo guards: he doesn’t pound the air out of the ball, he doesn’t force plays that aren’t there and he is rarely exposed to defensive mismatches. Bradley, 25, has his faults—he’s not a natural distributor, he isn’t equipped to run an offense for long stretches and his lack of size prevents him from making a big impact on the glass, but he tends to err on the side of control. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Made and attempted more threes last season (147 for 407) than he did his first four seasons combined.
+ One of four players among the top 20 in steals to register more steals than turnovers
– Injury issues have been a recurring theme throughout his career
– His limitations make him reliant on his teammates to generate much of his offense
Rubio is a first-class player in two crucial regards (playmaking, perimeter defense) and sorely lacking in another (scoring). Where that leaves his overall game is a matter of disagreement. Rubio characterizes such an extreme in both regards that his contributions can only be fully understood within an actual team context. That’s just not possible for the purposes of this exercise. Some theoretical teams would be able to give Rubio the kind of shooting support he needs while others would wither beneath his inaccuracy and reluctance. That variability is enough to depress his value this far, couching Rubio among players who have fewer (or no) transcendent NBA skills. His passing and ball-hawking defense are too remarkable to push further. Both stem from the same supernatural timing – a sense that allows Rubio to pick off passes with ease before threading a no-look, behind-the-back feed between two defenders. Some of his passes require multiple viewings at varying speed and angles to fully appreciate. It’s flash as function, and in each case proof that Rubio is so far ahead of the defense that he can toy easily with the space around them. (Last year: No. 87)
+ Tied for first in steal percentage and finished No. 2 in total offensive fouls drawn last year
+ Last season was actually an up year for Rubio as both a three-point shooter (32.6%) and an interior finisher (50.8%)
– Poor shooting would be impossible to hide from playoff scrutiny
– Largely healthy last season but no stranger to nagging injury
A pair of surgeries—one to his ankle, another to his shooting elbow—completely derailed Korver’s 2015-16 season. It took months for his game (and shooting percentages) to course correct, and from that dry spell came Korver’s worst season three-point shooting percentage since 2009. That is not to be overlooked; even a drop into the low-40s in three-point percentage would be notable for Korver considering the lofty range where he usually lives. That specialty is the core of his game. Defenses may choose to guard him the same based on capability and reputation, but central to Korver’s appeal is the capacity to make opponents pay. When he’s unable to do that—as was the case in December and January last season—Korver fades into the background of games. Korver showed over the final months of the season that he can still do enough of that to be effective, though a 35-year-old coming off a season marred by injury deserves some mild pessimism. (Last year: No. 46)
+ Forces opponents to change their game plans to account for his presence
+ Changes the game without the ball, allowing teammates to register their own influence
– A nondescript defender at best, an exploitable one at worst
– Clearly on the decline of his career
For four straight seasons, Danny Green was one of the NBA’s most reliable and cold-blooded three-point shooting specialists. And then it all came crashing down last year, as the Spurs’ not-so-sharpshooter hit just 33.2% of his threes, more than 7% below his career average and nearly nine points below his 2014–15 work. So many things are strange about this: Green didn’t change teams, his team didn’t change offensive systems, he didn’t change his role, he didn’t suffer a crippling injury or age-related decline and his shot location distribution was almost identical compared to the previous year. Strangest of all, his blatant shooting slump didn’t impact his team’s success all that much: the Spurs won 67 games, ranked third in offensive efficiency and posted a 111.1 offensive rating when he was on the court, bricks and all. These circumstances made it extraordinarily difficult to rank Green on this list. Is he a once-lethal, now-broken weapon, or is he poised to recover from his anomalous nightmare? This much is clearer: Green remains one of the NBA’s top perimeter guards, and his ability to defend either guard position is especially valuable and transferrable to various team contexts. (Last year: No. 50)
+ He ranked No. 1 in Defensive Real Plus Minus among shooting guards
+ Per NBA.com, his 3.5 deflections per game during the 2016 playoffs ranked No. 3 overall
– Per Synergy Sports, he fell from the 93rd percentile (1.19 points per possession) in spot-up shooting in 2014–15 to the 53rd percentile (0.95 points per possession) in 2015–16
– His 49.2 True Shooting % last season was the second-lowest mark among players who took 300 threes, topping only Kobe (46.9 TS%).
Casual gawkers and hardcore stat nerds alike could agree that the 20-year-old Latvian was awesome last season. By the end of his rookie campaign, the nonstop hype over this rail thin, 7' 3" big man (who didn’t turn 21 until August) was fully validated: Porzingis (14.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.9 BPG) survived the absolutely brutal one-two coaching duo of Derek Fisher and Kurt Rambis to claim Rookie of the Year runner-up and All-Rookie honors. Although his efficiency tailed off a bit down the stretch, 2016’s No. 4 pick enjoyed strong advanced stats across the board thanks to his developed offensive arsenal and mesmerizing size and wingspan, which helped him rebound well for his age and rank in the top 10 league-wide in blocked shots. On paper, Porzingis’s profile—a stretch-five who is comfortable scoring from the block to the arc and who can protect the rim—is as enticing as it gets. His short-term development path will be fascinating to watch, as the Knicks made the curious decision to surround Porzingis and All-Star Carmelo Anthony with a roster full of high-usage and injury-plagued veterans rather than pursuing a youth movement. Porzingis needed more help, to be sure, but he also needs an environment where he can play through his mistakes (dumb fouls, turnovers), work on his correctable weaknesses (spot-up shooting, finishing through traffic around the basket, playmaking for others), and master his strengths (natural scoring ability, shot creation). Given the large body of work he established in logging more than 2,000 minutes as a rookie, anything short of a big step forward from Porzingis in Year 2 would reflect poorly on Knicks president Phil Jackson. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ Made 81 three-pointers and attempted 243, setting all-time NBA records for players listed at 7' 3" or taller
+ Rookie stats (14 pts/7 reb/2 blk, 17.7 PER) similar to Brook Lopez's (13 pts/8 reb/2 blk, 17.7 PER)
– Shot just 34.5% and was a team-worst minus-54 in 84 minutes worth of clutch situations
– His 0.77 assist-to-turnover ratio as a rookie was comparable to less skilled big men like Rudy Gobert (.80) and Alex Len (0.67)
Wiggins might as well wear a target on his back. Through two seasons, the highly-touted 2014 No. 1 pick has given critics plenty of juicy nit-picking material: His Timberwolves have been bad, he’s emerged as a bit of an inefficient gunner, he’s not a particularly good rebounder despite his remarkable physical tools, he’s shown limited ability as a playmaker for others and he’s not yet a lockdown defender. Patience is still in order. Indeed, Wiggins (20.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2 APG), who just turned 21 in February, has yet to play for a coach with a modern approach to offense or with a cast of teammates who are all pulling in the same direction. Despite those challenges, he’s proven himself to be a reliable night-to-night scorer, a go-to option in the post, a skilled drawer of fouls, and an extremely durable player given his high-usage role and heavy minutes burden. The next steps are straightforward: cut down on the long twos, improve as a catch-and-shoot option from outside, take a step forward as a distributor in pick-and-roll scenarios and gobble up every piece of defensive advice new coach Tom Thibodeau has to offer. Given how high Wiggins’s talent level remains high relative to his age group and how lost the Timberwolves were when he arrived two years ago, it would be foolish to believe that his current flaws are bound to endure. (Last year: No. 91)
+ Logged more minutes before his age-21 season (5,814) than every player in NBA history besides LeBron James (per Basketball-reference.com)
+ He’s one of only five under-21 players in the last decade to average 20+ PPG for a season
– His sky-high ratio of shots to assists is Rudy Gay-esque
– He’s yet to fulfill pre-draft expectations that he would be a plus defender
Young is a no-frills contributor who racks up points without any trappings of a prominent role. Very few plays are run with him in mind—even on a Brooklyn Nets team otherwise lacking in creators. Still Young would turn up 15.1 points per game by knowing just how to take best advantage of random basketball. Some players can work wonders with the ball in their hands. Young does the same by wedging his way into slight openings, scooping up offensive rebounds, and flipping in baskets. Teams like the Pacers value Young because he can work in the space between ball-dominant teammates to turn difficult, unplanned shots into consistent points. Even the most skilled players in the league can run into trouble relying on the kinds of floaters and half-hooks that make for Young’s regular diet. Young shot 52% last season on shots in the high paint, a space on the floor characterized by difficult, off-balance attempts. Somehow, he makes it work. (Last year: No. 75)
+ Solid rebounder who is particularly elusive on the offensive glass
+ Has a knack for turning up steals. Knows how to use his hands on defense
– Doesn’t have much of a go-to game, but doesn't need big role to thrive
– Young’s days experimenting with a three-point shot appear to be over
Williams found a career-altering niche with the Hornets as a power forward who can stretch the floor and attack an overextended defense. The latter is critical; too many jump-shooting power forwards are rendered ineffective by committed coverage and hard closeouts. Williams made it a point to work on his floor game—if only for those particular moments when a defender might scramble past him in an effort to contest his shot. Defenders would have good reason to react in such exaggerated fashion. Not only did Williams finish as one of the top 15 three-point shooters in the league last season by percentage, he made 44.9% of his threes from the corners. Considering that more than half of his field goal attempts overall are now threes, Williams has earned that overcommittment. The counters are a burgeoning part of Williams’s game, though his perimeter shooting and always solid defense provide a stable core. (Last year: Not ranked)
+ An exceptionally low-turnover player—barely makes any mistakes
+ Defensive versatility makes him a legitimate option guarding both forward spots
– Positional shift has exacerbated his mediocre rebounding
– Best suited as a complement. Offensive game couldn’t comfortably scale into any other role
Randolph, after 15 years in the league, is bullying a new wave of slighter, smaller power forwards. His rump does the heavy lifting; tough as it is to push back against Randolph’s post-ups or contest his long-armed hook shots, such tasks are that much harder when Randolph first bumps away defenders off his backside. Sophisticated, preemptive team defenses make it more challenging every year for players to operate from the post. Yet Randolph comes back, season after season, with the fakes and footwork he needs to get by. There’s room, still, for Randolph’s particular brand of mid-usage bullyball. (Last year: No. 49)
+ Remains a solid mid-range shooter, shooting 43.1% last season
+ A load of a rebounder. Opponents advised to use heavy machinery, tow cables, etc.
– Slow-footed defender who doesn’t much protect the rim
– Face-up game is in decline now that his jab step is something of an empty threat
A change of scenery didn’t produce a change in narrative for Greg Monroe (15.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG). The 6'11" center moved from Detroit to Milwaukee as a free agent last summer, only to keep stacking up double-doubles, suffering through countless losses and enduring questions about his defensive shortcomings in a new location. The essential dilemma is this: if Monroe, 26, isn’t quick and mobile enough to defend starting power forwards (he’s not) and he isn’t blessed with the rim-protecting skills and low-post defensive fundamentals to defend starting centers (he’s not), then how can he contribute to a winning enterprise? The best solution is likely to move him permanently to a super sub role, where he can crash the offensive glass and punish backups on offense while skating by as best he can on defense. That might feel like an overly harsh demotion for a player who has consistently averaged roughly 17/10 per 36 minute for five straight seasons, but the low post-centric, one-way nature of his game cuts against the prevailing winds of the modern NBA. Monroe’s game isn’t trendy, and it isn’t likely to change radically given his limited range and physical limitations, so something else will have to give. (Last year: No. 48)
+ Only two players (Jordan, Drummond) have collected more offensive rebounds since 2011
+ He has appeared in 96% of his team’s games during his career, missing just 19 games in six years
– Detroit posted better efficiency numbers and won 12 more games without him
– In six seasons, he’s never played for a team that’s won more than 33 games
Jonas Valanciunas is so polished and so effective offensively that there’s been a bubbling sense for a year or two now that he should be further along than he is. The breakthrough didn’t happen last season, as a hand injury combined with a strong contract year from defensive-minded backup Bismack Biyombo suppressed his playing time and overall output (12.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG). At 24, though, there’s enough evidence to suggest that giving up now would be a mistake, especially with Biyombo out of the picture and Toronto’s roster wholly lacking in experienced back-up centers. Valanciunas is a scoring factory around the basket, feasting on close-range shots he creates with his bulk, second-chance opportunities he generates by pounding the glass and free throws he earns by being too much to handle for non-traditional centers. Toronto’s offense ranked in the top five last year so it’s hardly broken, but the timing seems right to feature Valanciunas in greater doses. While Valanciunas must take a step forward as a rim-protector and in pick-and-roll situations, Toronto’s thin frontcourt rotation suggests that this year will be sink-or-swim time for the Lithuanian 7-footer. (Last year: No. 77)
+ Feed him! Per NBA.com, he shot 68.1% on attempts that originated from a post touch last season
+ He’s almost certainly the NBA’s most committed and elaborate pump-faker
– The best recent age-23 comparison points for his production last season (13/9, 6.9 Win Shares) are a somewhat uninspiring mixed bag: Greg Monroe (15/9, 5.9 WS), Kenneth Faried (12/9, 7.8 WS), Andrew Bynum (11/9, 6.6 WS) and Chris Kaman (12/10, 6.1 WS).
– Through four seasons, he’s averaged one assist per every 41 minutes of playing time. He’s also never registered more than three assists in a regular-season game.
The particular construction of last season’s Miami Heat team was never all that kind to Dragic. His optimal role demands freedom with the ball in his hands. Sharing creative responsibility with Dwyane Wade sometimes made it difficult for Dragic to get the ball. In crunch time, Dragic was relegated to spot shooting or cheering from the sidelines—both similarly ineffective uses of the primary ball handler. When given that benefit, Dragic can produce more. He can only snake his way to the rim and collapse defenses if he’s empowered to take the ball off the bounce and run an offense for himself. Grant Dragic that much, however, and it also becomes clear that his breakout season in Phoenix was a bit of a mirage. Dragic isn’t shooting that well (40.8%), exploding to the rim that effectively, or propelling an offense so single-handedly again. Dragic is a lesser player now than he was then—clever enough to still be relatively effective, but slowed a touch and outpaced by many of his positional peers. (Last year: No. 42)
+ Still a smart, varied finisher who tests the discipline of opposing bigs
+ Has enough changes in speed and direction to his game to shed some defenders on the perimeter
– Technically can guard both backcourt positions but isn’t all that effective defending either
– Neither a prolific playmaker nor a top scoring guard
The power forward’s evolution in the modern NBA has made the position a safe haven for aging wings like Deng. Realistically, there are only so many big-bodied fours who could really give Deng trouble. The rest are right in his range: largely perimeter oriented but a step slower than the shooting guards and small forwards Deng checked for the bulk of his career. His positional shift last season in Miami worked to extend his career. Teams know what they can expect from Deng. Every defensive possession—even those that are ultimately fruitless—will be hard-fought. Every offensive task will be executed cleanly. There are clear limits to what Deng can do at this stage, though the reliability he brings to a system is an asset in itself. (Last year: No. 56)
+ Serviceable three-point shooter from the corners, though he seems to favor the right.
+ Consummate professional whom teammates praise and coaches trust.
– Plenty of wear, minutes and injury in his 12-year career.
– No longer a top-tier wing defender, though he gets by on savvy and effort.
There’s no problem at all if J.J. Redick, 32, never has another season as good as his 2015–16 campaign. He was just that good last season, scoring 16.3 points, shooting a league-leading 47.5% from deep, posting a whopping 114 offensive rating per NBAWowy.com and dropping a career-high 17.5 Player Efficiency Rating. L.A. got by for long stretches of the season without All-Star forward Blake Griffin in large part because Redick was the most finely tuned version of his lethal catch-and-shoot self. Thanks to years of backcourt chemistry between Redick and Chris Paul, the Clippers boasted the NBA’s sixth-best offense even though Griffin, a 20/10 monster, barely played after Christmas. Although a vast majority of Redick’s offensive value requires his teammates’ involvement, via timely passes and diligent screens, he’s such a pure and practiced shooter that he could function effectively for virtually any coach and point guard who bothered to call his number repeatedly. What’s more, Redick should probably get a little more 3-and-D love than he does, given that the Clippers’ defensive rating slipped three points when he left the court last season and he grades out respectably by Synergy’s analysis. While Redick isn’t going to shatter any backboards or posterize many seven-footers, his precision offensive contributions, defensive effort and overall veteran stability were worthy of a good jump up SI’s Top 100 rankings this year. (Last year: No. 93)
+ His 596 points in catch-and-shoot situations ranked third in the NBA. His eye-popping 1.52 PPP in spot-up scenarios ranked in the 100th percentile, per Synergy Sports
+ His 47.5% three-point shooting last season was the second-best mark in NBA history for any player taking at least five attempts
– He’s averaged one block shot for every 384 minutes he’s played during his 10-year career
– Is this the last go-around in LA? He will be 33 when he hits free agency next July
For as promising as Beal’s skill-set might be, there’s just no way around the fact that he’s missed a quarter of his career games due to injury. Some seem to be the result of cumulative strain, others the stroke of bad luck. In all they’ve cost Beal and the Wizards quite a bit—including some invaluable developmental opportunity during Beal’s first four seasons. Projecting forward, the likelihood of Beal missing further games has to be priced into his ranking relative to other high-level players. The Beal who does make it to the floor is a nice shooter and competitive defender who hasn’t fully fleshed out his game. Credit is due for the way that Beal can manufacture points out of difficult situations; his off-the-dribble game can redeem a broken play or carve out an opening against tight pressure, both of which are inevitabilities for a competitive team going through a playoff gauntlet. It’s players like Beal who help a team survive. It’s players like Beal, too, who can complicate matters by pulling up for iffy jumpers when they should drive to the rim, create contact, or aim to set up a teammate. (Last year: No. 62)
+ Stellar perimeter shooter with some ability to create his own offense
+ Came into the league so young that he’s still just 23 after four years of experience
– Competitive defender but hardly a game-changer on that end.
– Shot selection can leave something to be desired. Prone to settling.
It’s hard not to chuckle when an established player says that being traded is the “Best news I’ve heard in years.” That was Jeff Teague’s reaction when he learned his seven-years Hawks tenure was coming to an end and that he would play out his 2016-17 contract year with his hometown Pacers. There were plenty of reasons for possible discontent: Teague (15.7 PPG, 5.9 APG) was in a battle for minutes (and future dollars) with back-up Dennis Schroder, his overall efficiency and production were off last season, the Hawks took a major step back in the standings, and the team’s offense wasn’t nearly as potent as it was during their dream 2014-15 run to the East finals. This is clean slate time for the 28-year-old Teague, a 2015 All-Star whose elite quickness and strong pick-and-roll game helped him oversee some very good offenses during his time in Atlanta. An improved outside shooter, Teague is nevertheless used to a loose leash and the ball in his hands. Priority one in Indiana will therefore be striking the right balance between running Indiana’s show himself and making sure Paul George is satisfied with his touches. The good news: Indiana hasn’t had an above-average offense since 2012, so the door is wide open for Teague to prove he’s worth a major investment next summer. (Last year: No. 41)
+ Ranked in the top four league-wide in total drives in each of the last three years
+ Shot a career-best 40% from deep last season (graded out 98th percentile in catch-and-shoot, per Synergy Sports)
– Claimed to have played through a torn tendon in his knee on an Instagram post that was later deleted.
– Fell from 7th among point guards in Defensive Real Plus Minus in 2014-15 to outside the top 50
Hill's natural inclination is to complement—effectively deferring to his playmaking teammates by helping to establish the spacing they need to thrive. Only 12 players in the league last season finished with a higher three-point percentage than Hill. Among them, only two (Kawhi Leonard and Klay Thompson) have any claim to being a superior defender. That makes Hill a top option within the 3-and-D mold and truly unique in that he defaults as a nominal point guard. Wing players who want the ball in their hands need a teammate like Hill alongside them to be effective in unassuming roles. Don’t confuse Hill’s default preference for inability. When put into situations where his individual creation was needed, Hill has swelled to fill the void. He’s a smart, balanced practitioner of the screen-and-roll with the experience to run an offense. He also just happens to be perfectly willing to take a backseat while another teammate drives or pick up a challenging assignment to save someone else the trouble. Hill is game for whatever, and his open-minded play only serves to broaden his team’s options. (Last year: No. 80).
+ Previously held up well as a higher-usage pick-and-roll option in the absence of a star
+ Tall and long enough to realistically defend across three positions
– Can easily fade into the background on teams that don’t move the ball consistently
– Intermediate game can be a touch erratic