NBA Finals: Biggest Surprises, Key Steph Stats and Game 5 Predictions
The NBA Finals shift back to San Francisco for Game 5 tonight, with the Celtics and Warriors tied 2-2. What to make of the series so far? Which role players need to step up? Who will win? Our writers weigh in.
What’s surprised you most in the Finals?
Howard Beck: The relatively muted performance of Jayson Tatum. His stats across the board are solid—22.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.8 assists—but it just doesn’t feel like he’s made an imprint on this series. He’s the Celtics’ best player. He finished sixth in the MVP voting this season. He’s got the size and skill to take over a game at any time. But he has been mostly contained and is shooting a ghastly 27 percent (14-for-51) inside the arc.
Chris Herring: Even though it’s been talked about ad nauseam, Golden State winning every single third quarter thus far—and winning two of them in completely dominant fashion—is somewhat wild. Yes, the Warriors have long been a third-quarter club, dating back to their days with Kevin Durant. But a 49-point through just four contests, against a championship-caliber club, is something else.
Chris Mannix: It sounds crazy to say Curry’s brilliance but for Curry to average nearly 35 points against a generational defense led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is remarkable. Especially when you consider that, with Kevin Durant gone and Klay Thompson still working his way back, for the first time in Curry’s career he is playing without an equal alongside him.
Rohan Nadkarni: Draymond Green’s so-so play. I don’t think Green has been bad. And his defense is still very important. This was ultimately always going to be a difficult series for Green to have an impact offensively, but I thought he would figure out more ways to have an imprint on the game than he’s had so far. I’m still expecting a big Draymond moment at some point, even if Steve Kerr was willing to go away from him for a large stretch of the fourth quarter in Game 4.
Michael Pina: The assist-rate disparity is fascinating. Golden State's is 59.1% (down from a league-high 66.9%% during the regular season) while Boston's is a whopping 71.3% (up from a league-average 60.9% during the regular season). It's good news for the Celtics, and a credit to their defensive game plan against Steph Curry, that the Warriors have slid as far as they have. All the switching on and off-ball, plus a strong commitment to some drop coverage in the pick-and-roll has forced the postseason's top offense to play out of their comfort zone. Meanwhile, when Boston spaces the floor, draws two and finds the open man, Golden State is in trouble.
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What’s the most impressive Steph Curry stat you’ve seen during these Finals?
Herring: A lot has been made of Steph taking advantage of Boston’s dropping too far in pick-and-rolls. But consider this: Curry has shot 55%—a blistering 11-of-20—from deep when a defender is within four feet of him in this series, according to the NBA’s tracking data. For context, the rest of the players in this series have shot just 34.7% (16-for-46) from outside when covered tightly or very tightly.
Mannix: Curry has never averaged more than 5 ½ rebounds per game in a single season. He’s averaging 6.6 against Boston and with Golden State overmatched physically the Warriors have needed every one of them.
Nadkarni: I’m not going to get cute here. Steph is going up against one of the best 21st century NBA defenses and is shooting 49.1% from three on nearly 13 attempts a night. Any time Boston’s bigs give him an inch of space he is launching and it’s remarkable to watch. Curry’s ability to create from deep against such a staunch defense that is desperate not to let him shoot is remarkable, and it’s doubly so when you realize nobody else on the team is really creating consistent offense for themselves.
Pina: During the regular season, Curry made 37.4% of the 6.5 pull-up threes he attempted per game. In this series, the man is averaging 10 (!) pull-up threes per game and making 50% (!!!). It's simultaneously hard to see him sustain those numbers for the rest of these Finals and easy to believe the greatest shooter who ever lived can pull off what would be impossible to just about any other player who's ever lived.
Beck: Start with the most obvious: That he’s averaging 34 points (his highest in any Finals), against one of the fiercest defenses he’s faced, and without consistent help to keep those defenders off of him. And he’s doing it with remarkable efficiently, making 49 percent of his threes and 51 percent of his twos.
Who has been the second-best player in the Finals?
Mannix: Game 2 aside, Jaylen Brown has been effective. He’s given Boston a little bit of everything—22 points, seven rebounds, four assists—while setting the tone for the Celtics early. But make no mistake, through five games there is a sizable gap between Curry and everyone else.
Nadkarni: Jayson Tatum. He’s an invaluable part of Boston’s attack on both ends of the floor. The efficiency hasn’t been there offensively but he commands so much more attention than Jaylen Brown. And while Tatum’s shot has been inconsistent and the turnovers an issue, the three-point shooting has been mostly very good and the playmaking absolutely essential. It’s not quite the full star turn we’ve wanted to see from Tatum. That doesn’t mean he’s not having a great impact, and he still has a chance to make this a classic series.
Pina: Jaylen Brown has a strong case, but I'll go with Jayson Tatum, despite his poor two-point field goal percentage against the NBA's second-best defense. The Warriors are giving him the superstar treatment, doubling him in the pick-and-roll, loading behind the ball and collapsing off shooters whenever he drives to the rim. But taking that context into account—how he's defended, the offensive responsibility he bears on every possession, his three-point percentage (45.2%), the stellar help defense and rebounding, his Finals-high 31 assists, and terrific 2.21 assist-to-turnover ratio—Tatum's play in the first four Finals games of his career has actually been pretty good. If/when his shots inside the arc start to fall, Boston will be in good shape.
Beck: Jaylen Brown. His 24 points—10 in the fourth quarter—powered the Celtics to their stunning Game 1 victory. He had a team-high 27 points in their Game 3 win. And though Brown and Jayson Tatum are both averaging 22.3 points, Brown has been far more efficient—posting a .513 effective field-goal percentage, to Tatum’s .427.
Herring: Brown, and I’m not sure it’s all that close. His timely shot-making and play in transition at both ends has been huge, though Tatum has shot better from outside and facilitated more.
Which role player needs to step up in Game 5?
Nadkarni: Al Horford. After scoring 26 points in Game 1, Horford has scored 21 combined over the last three games. His minutes, rebounds, assists and three-point percentage are all down since the last round. And defensively, he’s been the target of Steph Curry on numerous occasions. Horford has to find a way to do more while still playing within himself, which is not easy. He can’t be expected to go out and launch 25 shots. Still, he has to make Golden State pay when he’s being guarded by a small, he has to attack the glass, and he has to find the right level when dropping on screens. I won’t say Horford has been bad. But a little more from him can go a long way.
Pina: For the Warriors it's Jordan Poole, who has to stay aggressive, convert tough pull-ups in the half-court and relieve some of the scoring burden that's fallen on Steph Curry's shoulders. If Poole gets going against Boston's defense, it opens things up for everybody else, particularly late in a tight game. For the Celtics it's Rob Williams III. Boston is a different team when he's creating second-chance opportunities, diving to the rim and spiking floaters into the second row. A bouncy Time Lord will cure what ailed the Celtics in Game 4.
Beck: I’d say Jordan Poole. He’s been really impactful in the Warriors’ two wins (17 points in Game 2, 14 points in Game 4), and barely a factor in the two losses (9 points in Game 1, 10 points in Game 3). Steph has been scintillating in this series, but he needs consistent scoring support. And the Warriors need to win this game, or face elimination in Boston on Thursday.
Herring: For Boston, it’s Horford, who’s enjoyed a pair of efficient, double-digit showings in the Celtics’ two wins this series, but been held to single digits both times and just 10 shots combined in two losses.For Golden State, the answer pretty clearly feels like Draymond. He had nine rebounds and eight assists last game—including a couple key ones late—but still was on the bench for a solid chunk of the fourth because of the spacing issues that often crop up when he and Kevon Looney play alongside each other. Green scoring a bit more, even by a touch, would be massive.
Mannix: Marcus Smart won Defensive Player of the Year. He has to figure out a way to slow down Curry, even when the Warriors try to shake him with screens. Smart is not going to stop Curry but he has to make him inefficient. Maybe make a few more three-pointers of his own, too.
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What’s your prediction for Game 5?
Pina: The Celtics have not dropped two games in a row during their entire playoff run and I don't think they start now.
Beck: I predict I’ll be having a lobster roll (my fourth of the series) when the series returns to Boston for Game 6. Maybe even two. I predict that you will keep asking me for predictions, even though I hate making them.
Herring: I think Boston gets Game 5, in part because I can’t picture Tatum having a fourth outing in five games where he posts a sub-40 percent shooting performance. He’s due, and on the flip side, Steph might finally have an off-night.
Mannix: Boston is undefeated after losses in the playoffs and for some reason has been a better road team than at home. Its defense, as Ime Udoka often says, travels well. I think the Celtics keep the turnovers low, reclaim the edge in rebounding and win a close Game 5. Now if Boston has another biblically bad third quarter, that’s another story.
Nadkarni: The Celtics still haven’t lost two in a row in the playoffs yet, and it took an all-time Steph performance to lose in Game 4. My pick remains Warriors in 7. I think Boston plays spoiler in Game 5, however. Tatum usually responds to subpar efforts with a big one. I’m expecting that Monday, and I think it will be enough to outduel Curry.
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