Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Trading Jaylen Brown is a Gamble the Celtics are Better Off Not Making
The Celtics' best path forward is to bet on stability. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have led them to the Eastern Conference Finals in four of their first six years together. The latter, 26, is just entering his prime. The former, 25, isn't even there.
Yes, this series against the Heat that might end with Miami sweeping Boston out of the playoffs has been a disaster for everyone in the organization. It's also true that the team's stars have disappointed the most.
After not playing in the final frame of the Celtics' 128-102 loss in Game 3, Tatum still hasn't made a field goal in the fourth quarter of this year's Eastern Conference Finals.
Brown had six turnovers and shot 1/6 from beyond the arc in the series opener. In Game 2, Grant Williams shouldn't have poked the bear that is Jimmy Butler. The hosts were in control, and the latter was in hibernation. Once provoked, Butler scored half as many points (nine) in the final 6:22 as he had in nearly 42 minutes.
Boston needed to back its teammate and show more fight, and Williams defended the Heat forward well. But it didn't take hindsight to realize antagonizing Butler with a nine-point lead and over half the period left was a miscalculation.
However, it may not have mattered if Brown played anywhere near his capabilities.
Instead, he got beat by Bam Adebayo, whom he sent to the foul line, where the Miami center knocked down two free throws to narrow the gap to four. The Celtics' All-NBA wing followed that up by getting whistled for traveling at the other end. He also demonstrated tunnel vision, forcing multiple shots while surrounded by several defenders, including a put-back attempt that got blocked.
And in Game 3, the two-time All-Star finished with 12 points on 17 shots, committed three turnovers, and like the rest of the team, provided no resistance defensively. Sunday was the lowest point of the season for Brown individually and the franchise collectively.
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While the defending Eastern Conference champions are capable of digging out of this 3-0 hole, there's no sign of that happening. It's more likely this series ends Tuesday.
Even if that happens, while this best-of-seven may not go five games and shows change is needed, is breaking up Tatum and Brown the path to a better future?
Knowing what the status quo is, that they've already broken through to the NBA Finals, and that, pointing to their age, the best is likely yet to come for the All-NBA duo, the bet to make is on the current infrastructure.
Paying Brown the five-year, $295 million veteran supermax extension he's qualified for this summer, and Tatum the five-year, $318 million contract he can sign for next offseason, gives Boston as many opportunities to compete for the Larry O'Brien Trophy as possible.
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The franchise should trust that what a future together doesn't hold for Tatum and Brown is cementing their legacy as a stepping stone for title teams elsewhere.
The organization should go all-in on the belief that from ownership to Brad Stevens to its young stars at the position that drives winning more than any other in the modern NBA, they'll figure out how to deliver at least Banner 18, if not more.
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Even if the Celtics could swing a deal centered around a swap of Brown for Joel Embiid, some of the same risks raised as rumors swirled about potentially trading the former for Kevin Durant are present.
While this year's league MVP is five years younger than the now Suns star, he's a seven-foot, 280-pound center who turns 30 in March and has a concerning injury history. Embiid is a remarkable player, the modern Hakeem Olajuwon, but he's had trouble staying healthy and in shape in the playoffs.
It's difficult for someone that size to avoid exhaustion during the grueling gauntlet that is the postseason, no matter how hard they work on their conditioning, and he hasn't always done right by himself on that front.
Maybe, teaming up with Tatum, Embiid gets in the best shape of his life, stays healthy, and helps lead Boston to an NBA title. Perhaps, the combination captures multiple championships.
But the window is small, the latter's track record is concerning, and it's ok to be afraid of the unknown of where Tatum's next star running mate to remain in contention would come from and what failing to find the right person for the job might mean.
The Red Sox rightfully get lambasted for often failing to appreciate their homegrown stars. The Celtics shouldn't make the same mistake.
Further Reading
Grant Williams Reacts to Heated Altercation with Jimmy Butler
Marcus Smart Defends Joe Mazzulla's Strategy After Game 1 Loss to Miami Heat
Celtics Address 'Letting Go of the Rope' After Game 1 Loss to Heat
