Clippers vs. Bucks Preview: The reigning MVP has arrived

The Clippers defense has taken a step forward since a surprising loss to Phoenix, but they'll get a big test against the reigning MVP and without Kawhi Leonard.

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The LA Clippers play the Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday night at Staples Center at 7 p.m. Even though it is a nationally televised game, Kawhi Leonard will be resting for the second consecutive week with load management, denying fans of the hotly-anticipated Eastern Conference Finals rematch between Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

Here's what to watch for: 

• Who will the Clippers start? 
  The Clippers have had a consistent starting lineup all season – Patrick Beverley, Landry Shamet, Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Patterson, and Ivica Zubac – except for the one game Leonard missed, when Lou Williams replaced him. Having three guards in the starting proved to be a significant defensive challenge against Utah, a team that has a relatively small backcourt, and could be disastrous against Milwaukee. The bench unit also suffered without Williams. 
  
  The easiest answer here is to remove Patterson from the starting lineup and insert JaMychal Green or Moe Harkless. But the Clippers like Patterson's switchability and spacing, and I'd guess Doc Rivers isn't going to bow to public pressure on Patterson until Paul George returns. So long as Patterson is at the four, the Clippers should probably swap Shamet in favor of Harkless to provide more defense on Giannis and Khris Middleton and to give the second unit a ball handler in Shamet.

• What do the Clippers do about Giannis?
  Admittedly, this is more of an existential question than anything. Giannis is Giannis, the reigning MVP, and will likely have his way against whatever defender and scheme the Clippers throw at him. He averaged 30.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in two contests against LA last year. All the Clippers can hope for is to make his life a little more difficult, especially with the team's two all-world defenders riding the pine for this outing. 
  
  LA is well aware of the challenge that Antetokounmpo and the Bucks present. Rivers said at practice Tuesday, "I think they’re the favorites, right? I don’t know that, I think so. That’s how we should view them. They’re a hell of a team, they’re well-coached, and they have the MVP on their team, but they also have very good role players and players who understand how to play off a great player. They’re a heck of a basketball team."
  
  Green, who hopes to replicate his standout performance during Leonard's last rest, echoed that sentiment. "They’re a tough team, they’re a playoff contending team, so it’s going to be a great matchup. We want to come out focused, and we want to hit first," Green said. "Really, you gotta contain Giannis, and then you know, we work from there."
  

• Who will win the 3-point battle? 
  Antetokounmpo is the head of the snake, but he is surrounded by capable shooters who give him space to work. Milwaukee has the second-best offensive rating in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. The Bucks take 44.4% of their shots from beyond the arc, though they've only converted about a league-average rate of 34.8% of those attempts. The Clippers don't concede as many threes (36.5% of opposing field-goal attempts), but their opponents knock down over 38% of those shots. 
  
  On the other end, Milwaukee allows teams to shoot the highest rate of threes in the league, preferring to pack the paint. The Clippers aren't a particularly high volume 3-point shooting team, so they aren't exactly equipped to take advantage, especially without Leonard to attract attention in the midrange. However, if they can create some good looks out of the pick-and-roll, that could be the necessary offensive burst to counteract the Bucks' eighth-ranked defense.