What The Clint Capela Trade Means For the Hawks
Tuesday night’s four-team trade between Nuggets, Rockets, Wolves, and Hawks may have taken some convoluted orchestration, but the result was an unambiguous win for Atlanta. As first reported by Adrian Wojnarowski, he Hawks received Clint Capela and Nêné in exchange for Evan Turner and the Nets’ lottery-protected 2020 first-round pick, thus patching a major hole on the roster without sacrificing major assets. Feeling pressure to compete for a championship and duck the luxury tax, Houston had little leverage in this deal, and Atlanta smartly positioned itself to take advantage. The Rockets were eager to shed Capela and the Hawks, who had been hunting for a starting center all season, were more than happy to help facilitate a deal.
Much like the trade for Jeff Teague and Treveon Graham in January, this deal comes with little realistic downside for Atlanta. The draft pick the Hawks sent to Minnesota can’t be any higher than 15 in any of the next three years, and they retained all their remaining first-round picks moving forward. This deal likely takes Atlanta out of the center market in free agency and mitigates the risk of either overpaying a middling big man or missing out on one entirely. At age 25, Capela is under contract through the 2023 season for under $19 million annually – well below what a player of his caliber would command on the open market – which gives the Hawks increased flexibility in building out the rest of their roster and preserves roughly $48.5 million in cap space this summer.
On the court, Atlanta adds a young but proven two-way force at a position of need who should fit neatly with the rest of its young core. Capela’s presence will be most impactful on defense, where the Hawks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. He isn’t an elite defender, but considering the state of Atlanta’s center rotation, Capela providing reliable help and passable rim protection could make a meaningful difference on that end of the floor. While doesn’t bend opposing offenses to his will like Rudy Gobert or Joel Embiid, Capela can be a solid defensive anchor provided he has other capable defenders around him. He snares one of the highest individual defensive rebound percentages in the NBA, and Houston has perennially rebounded better with him on the court. He can capably switch ball screens and defend on the perimeter – a skill Lloyd Pierce will most likely put to use.
But Capela isn’t a perfect player on that end of the floor and likely won’t singlehandedly lift Atlanta’s defense to viability. Opponents have shot nearly 58 percent against him within six feet of the rim in the last two seasons, and he doesn’t necessarily cause opponents to reconsider shooting when he’s around. Capela wasn’t playing in a particularly friendly defensive context in Houston, and, amazingly, the Hawks might even offer him slightly better surrounding defensive talent despite a vastly worse defensive rating. John Collins has taken a meaningful step forward on that end this season, while Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter have quickly become solid perimeter defenders. Capela should tie those pieces together more effectively than any of Atlanta’s other centers have.
It takes a particular kind of ecosystem for Capela to thrive on offense, but the Hawks are almost perfectly designed to accommodate him. His duties are simple – and often thankless – but integral to a healthy offense. Capela established himself as one of the NBA’s best pick-and-roll finishers in Houston playing with James Harden, and his ability to finish at the rim and draw the attention of defenses should translate smoothly in Atlanta. He has mastered the art of prying open space for ball-handlers with screens and finishes lobs as well as any big man in basketball. He’ll flub the occasional pass below the rim, but he should still be close to an ideal pick-and-roll partner with Trae Young. Even when he isn’t putting down lobs, the threat Capela poses at the rim is enough to pull a help defender in from a 3-point shooter or keep a dropping big man on his feet as Young lofts floaters through the net.
Young knows this phenomenon well having worked the two-man game with Collins over the last two seasons – a fact that will complicate the fit of Atlanta’s new frontcourt. While playing Collins next to another rim protector should fortify Atlanta’s defense, it could congest the team’s offense. Though he has improved his jumpshot and become a more reliable floor-spacer, Collins is at his best – and better than most big men in the league – rolling downhill and finishing at the rim. He and Young have developed a certain chemistry that will now be disrupted, slightly, by the addition of a big man who serves a similar function – without the spacing benefit. Every possession Collins shares the floor with Capela is one he can’t spend rolling to the rim, and thus that doesn’t maximize his best skill.
Pierce can help mitigate that overlap by staggering the two and using Collins as a center (or pairing him with Alex Len) on second units. But they will inevitably share the floor for extended stretches, and Pierce will likely want to preserve as many minutes with Young and Collins on the floor as possible. (Moving using Capela with the second unit is an option, but he isn’t as dynamic as Collins with the ball in his hands and depends more on facilitators like Young to set up his shots.) That tension naturally raises questions about Collins’ long-term fit in Atlanta. A pairing with Capela isn’t untenable, but could be redundant enough that the diminishing offensive returns aren’t worth what the Hawks will eventually have to pay to retain Collins, who will be eligible for an extension this offseason and can become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2021. With Capela locked up on a team-friendly deal and Atlanta’s other young players eventually due for pricier contracts, would the Hawks be better off using their resources on a defensive-minded forward, perimeter-oriented secondary creator, or two-way wing?
Atlanta has time to come to a conclusion on Collins, even if the clock is ticking. Recent reports have indicated that it’s unlikely the 22-year-old gets traded before Thursday’s 3 p.m. deadline, and the Hawks will likely want to see how he fits with Capela before coming to any final determinations. Atlanta has addressed its biggest need ahead of the trade deadline. Now the Hawks will figure out where exactly where that leads them.
