Making Sense of the Hornets' Draft Night Trade
On draft night the Charlotte Hornets selected Jalen Duren and euphoria immediately rushed through the veins of Hornets fans everywhere. Fans had gotten the guy they were praying would fall down draft boards to them for months. That feeling would almost immediately subside once Hornets fans checked their phones after the pick was announced to find that Woj and Shams were reporting Duren was being shipped out of Charlotte for a return that wasn't very clear. Is it a 25 1st round pick? It's Milwaukee's pick? It's Portland's Pick via the Bucks? The Hornets were finally able to bring some clarity to the situation revealing that they were getting a 23 1st round pick from Denver in addition to four second round picks.
Giving a person something they really want and then taking it away can lead to further disappointment than never having what was desired at all. I think this is what happened to the Hornets fans on draft night. The flow of events goes like this...
1) Hornets select Jalen Duren.
2) Duren is traded immediately.
3) Woj wrongly reports that Charlotte is getting a 25 1st rounder from Milwaukee.
4) Hornets select Mark Williams.
5) The reported return for the pick is actually Denver's 23 1st plus four 2nd round picks compared to just a 25 1st from the Bucks.
First impressions matter in all situations. It is no different when your favorite team is making draft-day decisions. The sting of losing the player that the majority of the fan base had been praying would fall to the 13th selection for weeks was top of mind. Fans everywhere asking what could possibly be worth giving up Duren? To initially find out the pick gained was a 1st rounder by a perennial title contender that was three calendar years down the road left Hornets fans with a sour taste in their mouth. Especially considering the Hornets gave up a lottery pick in this year's draft to do so. While these are valid concerns let's zoom out for a second and take a macro view of the situation.
Coming into the draft, the Hornets needed to find a cornerstone center and perhaps use that other 1st to move off some of the larger veteran contracts they have on their books. Now let's take a closer look at what happened.
Mark Williams is selected, which in isolation I think Hornets fans would have been more than happy to leave draft night with the former Duke Blue Devil who stands 7'2" with a higher standing reach than multiple-time defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert. Williams should be a tremendous fit next to LaMelo Ball and if things break right for Mark and the Hornets, Williams could potentially be an All-Star level center one day. While Duren may project to have a higher upside to some, I think Mark Williams slots into the defensive anchor role this team has so badly needed a bit more seamlessly than what an 18-year-old Jalen Duren would.
Now the Hornets were not able to shed a large amount of salary on draft night but what did Mitch Kupchak and the front office achieve when they traded Duren?
FLEXIBILITY.
The Hornets did not move off one of those less-than-ideal contracts on draft night, which left many fans scratching their heads. But what the front office did do is give themselves more options moving forward. It allows them to be a bit more patient with some of the assets they have. Something of note: Gordon Hayward's contract will be expiring next offseason so theoretically if Gordon played out this year and the Hornets waited to move him, the summer of 2023 the return will likely be greater than what the Hornets may have fetched on draft night Thursday evening.
With the 2022 draft picks in the rearview the 2023 picks are currently the highest valued picks on the NBA trade market. If the Hornets are intent on moving off one of Hayward, Rozier, Oubre, or Plumlee the 23 1st round pick they received on draft night should be a desirable asset to attach to one of those contracts for a team looking to add draft capital.
Many people wanted to immediately write it off as an awful move by Kupchak, I would tend to grade it more as an incomplete. I recall something similar happening last offseason when fans were in an uproar over not paying Devonte' Graham and trading him for a pick that was likely to be two second rounders. Ultimately, Mitch turned a 2nd rounder in Devonte Graham into what projects to be the Hornets franchise center for years to come. The front office took some heat at the time but long-term it seems that deal is likely to pay off.
I anticipate Mitch having another move up his sleeve whether that be this summer, during the season ahead of the trade deadline, or summer of 2023. Before the trade can be graded properly. we must see how Kupchak uses the assets added on draft night to add talent to the roster or clear the books to pay some of our young core pieces like LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and PJ Washington in the years to come.
In a society where instant gratification exists, sometimes it can pay to be patient. Is that the case here? Only time will tell.
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