Charlotte Hornets 2024 Cap Space Projections

I can hear the sigh of relief from fans as the NBA off-season comes to a close. Endless discussions about the draft and free agency, real basketball will be back in everyone's lives within a month. However, now the roster is set it is a good time to look forward to next Summer to understand the Hornets' salary cap sheet in 2024 as it could impact in-season trades for the upcoming season.

I'll be taking you step by step through Charlotte's 2024 off-season helping you understand the key questions the franchise are facing and what the impacts of their decisions will be.

Charlotte Hornets 2024-25 Cap Holds

Step 1 - Renounce and Confirm the "Small Fish"

Right now, it seems reasonable to think the Hornets will renounce the rights to Frank Ntilikina next off-season. Charlotte will likely guarantee the contracts of McGowens and Thor and exercise the team option for Mark Williams. The team options for Bouknight and Jones are less clear, with both in danger of having their 4th year options being declined in October 2024. Currently, I have marked Kai Jones as the more likely of the two to remain on the roster due to positional scarcity and his lower salary figure.

Step 2 - Renounce Gordon Hayward's Cap Hold

Keeping Hayward's $47 million Cap hold on the Hornets' books would put Charlotte's team Cap Holds at $186 million, $21 million over the $165 million tax line. This would limit Charlotte to the tax payer MLE ($5.2 million) instead of the full MLE ($13 million) in free agency and generally limit flexibility, something this front office has valued. Hayward's contract expiring as Ball's maximum contract kicked in was likely always the vision for next year. The drafting of Brandon Miller and Bridges' impending free agency means Hayward is unlikely to return to Charlotte.

Step 3A - If Bridges Re-signs...

Despite Bridges' being an unrestricted free agent, I believe there is a genuine intention to re-sign him next off-season. After renouncing Hayward's Cap Hold the Hornets have space to sign Bridges up to a maximum contract while staying below the tax. for the purposes of this projection I have listed the Hornets re-signing Bridges for $30 Million per year. This would put the team's salaries at $146 million, marginally above the $142 salary cap. This would leave the team a $20 million buffer before the tax to fill out the remaining three roster spots (Not including 2024 draft picks) using the MLE ($13 million) BAE ($4 million) and veteran minimum contracts. This in my opinion is the most likely and ideal outcome, building a competitive roster while staying financially flexible

Step 3B - If Bridges leaves in Free Agency...

If Miles Bridges were to leave in Free Agency, how would Charlotte replace him? If there weren't any other major moves the projections suggest Charlotte would have approximately $26 million in Cap Space. That's not enough for Siakam or Harden, but could put you in the conversation for established players on the downside of their careers in Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris or DeMar DeRozan. The restricted free agent market has interesting names like Patrick Williams, Saddiq Bey and Deni Avdija, but both are unlikely to leave their current teams. The rest of the free agent options are underwhelming, making a sign and trade a more likely scenario. Perhaps in this worst case scenario they even look into bringing Hayward back on a one year stop gap deal? Otherwise, I don't see a path for a bridges-less Hornets team in 2024-25 taking another step forward.

Conclusion

Overall, Charlotte don't project to have Cap Space in the 2024 off-season unless both Hayward and Bridges leave. At this stage the most likely scenario is to function as an over the cap team, making roster changes through trades rather than free agency. Outside of re-signing Miles Bridges in free agency, the 2024 off-season projects to be another quiet one for Charlotte.

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