LaMelo Ball Will Silence The Critics
Going into his third season LaMelo Ball was viewed as one of the most exciting young stars in the NBA. He was coming off an All-Star appearance (albeit an injury replacement) and a career season leading the Hornets to a 44-39 record. Last season Ball and the wider Hornets organisation battled through injuries which resulted in a step back for much of the roster. Despite the appalling situation Ball found himself in, NBA analysts have continually ignored or not given enough weight to the context and have now tarnished LaMelo Ball as a “Good stats, bad team” player who “Doesn’t play winning basketball”. I’m going to put this lazy narrative to bed once and for all.
The Charlotte Hornets have a 47% win percentage with LaMelo Ball in the lineup as opposed to a 32% win percentage without him. If you don’t think Ball impacts winning, then you’re not watching the Charlotte Hornets without him playing. For a young, “One and done” player to come into a team and have such an impact on winning is rare. You can critique LaMelo’s defense, rim finishing and physicality, but you can’t argue that despite those weaknesses he hasn’t made an overall positive impact on the team. I’m guessing the
Win Shares is an advanced statistic which assigns credit for team success to the individuals on a team. In the table below I’ve collated win share data from a variety of other young up and coming stars to see how LaMelo compares.
| Age After 3 Seasons | Player | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | Career Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23.6 | T Haliburton | 3.5 | 7 | 7.6 | 6 |
22.9 | T Young | 3.3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 5.5 |
23 | J Morant | 3.8 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 4.6 |
22 | L Ball | 2.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 3.5 |
22 | A Edwards | 0.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
21.8 | D Booker | 1.9 | 2 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
22.6 | D Garland | -1.3 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
21.9 | C Cunningham | -0.5 | -0.1 | -.0.3 |
Ball grades out towards the middle of the pack behind Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young and Ja Morant. It is notable that Ball is/was between 9-18 months younger than each of those players after their 3rd season, showing just how advanced he is for his age. Ball grades out ahead of Anthony Edwards, Darius Garland and Cade Cunningham, players he is often compared to and regularly appears behind in NBA player rankings. You might be raising your eyebrow at the inclusion of Devin Booker on the list. I actively included Booker as I believe there are similarities in how the media discussed Booker in his early Phoenix days. Look at the Suns now, they have upgraded the roster which has enabled Booker to be more efficient and become a playoff contender and the narrative has undertaken a complete 180-degree turn.
In LaMelo’s first three years he has been put in a high usage role with a heavy playmaking and scoring load. Per Cleaning The Glass he has career averages of a 28% usage rate, 36% assist rate and scores 110 points per 100 shot attempts. To put those numbers into context, the only players to meet those averages for at least one season since 2020 are Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Trae Young, Chris Paul, Tyrese Haliburton, Nikola Jokic and James Harden. Each of these players are generational talents who, outside of Haliburton, are more experienced and have a stronger surrounding cast. This reinforces that LaMelo Ball is still a unicorn talent for his age. However, his reputation continues to be tarnished by those who attribute his role in Charlotte. If anything, achieving this level of success with the Hornets should be more impressive, not less.
Late August is the deepest and darkest part of the NBA off-season. Fans are annually subjected to the atrociously impossible task of “NBA Rank”, where analysts rank the top 100 players in the NBA. It's still early, so not all the usual outlets have published bu let’s see where LaMelo Ball ranks so far:
| Outlet | Ranking |
|---|---|
ESPN | 48th |
Hoopshype | 27th |
The Ringer | 50th |
The Athletic | 34-39th (In a tier) |
NBA 2K | 41st |
Action Sports Network | 84th |
Personally, somewhere between 35-45 feels about right. I'm not going to moan about each outlet's ranking and who Ball should have been ahead of, but I will say 84th is an anomaly compared to most. To read these rankings go here: The Ringer, Action Sports Network, NBA 2K24, The Athletic
Ball was always going to suffer a drop on last year’s rankings. Analysts often lean on a blend of advanced analytics rankings to help make these lists, something Ball will rank poorly on for 22-233 due to his high usage yet inefficient role. What those statistics won’t capture is the specific injury context he suffered through last year. In the 36 games Ball did play the team were missing Hayward, Martin, Bridges and Oubre for most if not all of his minutes. Even those who did play were far from 100% as Hayward battled through a shoulder fracture and Rozier right foot soreness.
When Ball returned (the first time) from injury he was asked to play a higher usage role to try and lift Charlotte’s 30th-ranked offense. If you have watched LaMelo Ball enough, you should realize it’s not in his nature to play a shoot-first style. Ball’s preference is to distribute to his teammates, he’s often happy to defer as a scorer in late-clock situations. Unfortunately, this nuance isn’t picked up by analytics or national analysts who understandably have other priorities than watching a lottery-bound Hornets team. That’s why NBA rank is a pointless and meaningless exercise you should largely ignore it.
NBA analysts have double standards and are often guilty of hypocrisy. Some players would undoubtedly get a “Pass” for last season, analysts would have encouraged them to explore their offensive ceiling or blame it on their surrounding cast. Unfortunately, LaMelo Ball receives no such treatment. Maybe it’s because Ball doesn’t exactly warm to the media, or perhaps some think his fame and off-court passions take away from his commitment to the game. His youth, vibrancy and happy-go-lucky style doesn’t fit the mold of Jordan and Kobe’s killer mentality which the media lean into. But neither does Nikola Jokic. All I know is that his teammates and coaches have consistently raved about Ball’s approach. Cody Zeller’s quote from 2021 always stuck out to me.
“He actually surprised me a ton, he was completely the opposite of what I thought he was going to be off the court. I saw the family reality show, millions of followers. He’s going to be some entitled young kid all about social media. The furthers thing from the truth. He came in and asked questions in film sessions, he put in the work. There was one time we were in the training room next to each other and he said “Social media is the dumbest thing, I wish I could get off it totally”. Super humble, super awesome teammate. A lot of the time he will just stay at home and do nothing, he’s not one to go out. He just loves the game of basketball, he puts in the extra work.”
LaMelo Ball is a winning player. His teammates enjoy playing with him. He is historically special taking into account his age. Unfortunately, the opposite media narrative has now been established and he’s not going to be getting any of the “Cade Cunningham” style benefit of the doubt. Ball is well placed for a successful 23/24 season where he will look to reestablish his reputation as one of the best young NBA guard prospects in the NBA.
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