Inside The Jazz

Comparing the Utah Jazz to the 2017 Warriors

Through 28 games, the Utah Jazz are the best regular season team the NBA has seen since the 2017 Golden State Warriors.
Casey Lundquist|
Comparing the Utah Jazz to the 2017 Warriors
Comparing the Utah Jazz to the 2017 Warriors

The Utah Jazz are on a historical run. According to Elias Sports, the Jazz are the first team to win 16 games by double digits in a 19-game span since the 2009 Cavaliers. The 1971 Bucks are the third and final team to accomplish that feat in NBA history.

The Jazz, who have won eight in a row and 19 out of their last 20 games, have drawn comparisons to the 2017 Golden State Warriors and the 2014 San Antonio Spurs on social media. We decided to put those comparisons to the test. Today, let's explore the analytics behind the 2021 Jazz and compare them to the best regular season teams since 2014. 

2021 Utah Jazz

First, let's break down the 2021 Utah Jazz. It's important to address two data caveats before we get started: 

1. Limited sample size - the Jazz have only played 28 games so far this season. When we compare the season-to-date Utah Jazz against the best regular season teams since 2014, sample size could skew the data.

2. No garbage time - the numbers today will come from Cleaning the Glass. These "numbers exclude garbage time and possessions at the end of quarters that are highly likely to end up in a heave."

Without further ado, let's get to the numbers. The Jazz lead the NBA in net points per 100 possessions by a substantial margin. Per 100 possessions, the Jazz are scoring 119.4 points and allowing only 107.0 for a net differential of 12.4. The Milwaukee Bucks are second behind the Jazz with a net differential of 8.4 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz are the only team in the top five per 100 possessions on both offense and defense - our first data visualization will help illustrate that.

Below is a graph of the offensive and defensive points per 100 possessions in the NBA. The x-axis is points allowed per 100 possessions, the y-axis is points scored per 100 possessions:

If the above graph is hard to understand, you can use the image below as a guide:

Obviously, the upper-left quadrant is where you want to be. As depicted in the graph, the Jazz rank fourth in the league in points scored per 100 possessions behind the Clippers, Bucks, and Nets. Utah is second only to the Lakers in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Jazz are the only team in the top five in both categories.

Remember how we said Utah's net differential leads the league by a substantial margin? The graph below illustrates what we're talking about:

As things currently stand, the Jazz are in a tier of their own. The second tier includes the Bucks, Clippers, and Lakers. The third tier includes the Nets, Nuggets, and Suns. After those seven teams, there is a considerable drop off. Now that we understand Utah's sizeable lead against the rest of the field, let's compare the 2021 Utah Jazz to the best regular season NBA teams since 2014.

Comparing the Jazz to Recent Great Teams

We'll use the same metric (net points per 100 possessions) to compare the Utah Jazz to recent great NBA teams. The below graph illustrates the best regular season teams since 2014:

The 2021 Utah Jazz rank second only to the 2017 Golden State Warriors as the best regular season team since 2014. The numbers tend to agree with those fans that have compared the Jazz to the 2017 Warriors In fact, no other team since 2014 has been closer to the 2017 Warriors than the current Utah Jazz.

Utah's roster doesn't tout the same all-star prowess as the 2017 Warriors; Golden State had four all-stars that season. The Jazz will have two or maybe even three this year. Name recognition aside, however, the Jazz are the closest thing the NBA has seen to the 2017 Warriors.

So What?

So what does the mean for the Jazz? On one hand, it validates Utah's spectacular start to the season. The numbers speak for themselves - the Jazz should not be taken lightly. On the other hand, it means very little as regular season success is not always a predictor of post-season success.

Take the Bucks for example. Milwaukee has been the best regular season team for two consecutive seasons with zero NBA Finals appearances to show for it. Of the seven teams in the graph above, only three of them made the NBA Finals from 2014-2020.

The Jazz will still need to prove themselves in the Playoffs when that time comes. After all, the NBA Playoffs are an entirely different animal than the regular season. For now, Jazz fans should sit back and enjoy the ride that comes with a historical season.

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Casey Lundquist
CASEY LUNDQUIST

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