New Model Reveals Jazz's Chances of Making the Playoffs
Basketball-References.com has updated its Playoff Probabilities report and currently has the Utah Jazz finishing the season with 39.2 wins, which would place them in the No. 9 slot in regard to lottery odds. The prediction, which is based off of 10,000 simulations that includes the play-in tournament, also gives Utah a 21.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Fans may be torn on whether to root for Utah to win moving forward, but after watching the games against the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic, it’s clear where the coaching staff and players stand.
The minute distribution speaks to where head coach Will Hardy's true heart lies and it doesn’t bode well for 'Team Tank.' Against the Mavericks All-Star Lauri Markkanen logged 39 minutes, which tied a season-high in regulation. Also, In Thursday night’s win over the Magic, Hardy could've chosen to take the foot off the gas, but that just wasn’t the case.
Walker Kessler was a game-time decision (illness) in Orlando and nobody would’ve batted an eye if Utah’s starting center decided to sit this one out. Kessler ended up playing, scoring 13 points while hauling in 10 rebounds in 32 minutes on the court. If Kessler doesn’t play, the Jazz don’t win.
In fact, the fewest amount of minutes a starter played was 29. These aren’t the actions of a team that has draft positioning on its mind.
Hardy chose to close the game with Markkanen, Kessler, Kris Dunn, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Ochai Agbaji — another decision that points to the Jazz putting their best foot forward.
Utah will be playing uphill the rest of the way for a playoff spot, but tanking the season doesn’t appear to be in the cards. What does this mean moving forward?
The Jazz are going to win a few more games as long as Markkanen is on the court. If Basketball Reference's prediction holds true, the Jazz will have a 4.5% chance of getting the No. 1 selection and a 20.2% shot of a top-four pick. The most likely selection would be at the No. 9 slot, with a 46.3% chance.
However, if Utah has a shot of being part of the 6-8 spot conversation, it could be as a result of its remaining games. Tankathon.com now has Utah pegged with the most challenging remaining schedule, with its opponents winning games at a 54.1% clip.
Time will tell how this will all play out, but what we do know is if the Jazz free-fall to No. 6, it won’t be from a lack of trying.
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