Jazz's Updated Playoff Odds Revealed by Analytics Simulator

The NBA playoff probability reports are out via basketball-reference.com, and it’s not looking good for the Utah Jazz. The results, which are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, give Utah a 21.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 25.3% shot of making the play-in tournament.

However, those numbers don’t take into consideration that Utah’s front office may be packing it in with only 10 games left in the season. It’s not a good sign that All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen was ruled out 36 hours before Friday night's home tilt vs. the Milwaukee Bucks.

Markkanen injured his left wrist Wednesday night in Utah’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. It hinted that Utah’s front office will be taking the side of caution with its star player. Markkanen playing another game this season may not be in the cards.

Also, fans have to be wondering whether they’ve already seen Jordan Clarkson suit up for the last time in a Jazz uniform. The former Sixth Man of the Year will most likely be opting out of his current deal with the Jazz.

At 30 years old, Clarkson won’t want to risk a major injury that could cost him cashing in on a multi-year deal this summer. There hasn’t been a lot of news on what direction Utah’s most tenured player will take, but with the emergence of first-year guard Ochai Agbaji, it’s trending that Clarkson’s days in Salt Lake City are coming to an end.

Then there’s the Collin Sexton situation.

Sexton has missed 26 games and counting in his first year with the Jazz. Taking into consideration that Sexton had surgery for a torn meniscus last season, the Jazz will most likely choose to play it safe the rest of the way. The fourth-year pro is signed with the Jazz through the 2025-26 season.

All of this spells trouble for the Jazz fans that were hoping to see Utah in the postseason for the seventh consecutive year. But that's what the NBA has become in a day and age of guaranteed multi-million-dollar contracts and franchises playing for draft position. There is an incentive on both sides not to play the season through.

On a positive note, Utah's injury setbacks opened up the door for the aforementioned Agbaji, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Kris Dunn to stake their claim in the 2023-24 rotation. The young trio made Utah a much more formidable team defensively, and the extra live reps will improve their chances of being a part of the team's plan next year and beyond.

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