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Jazz Conveying 2024 First-Round Pick Prediction via Analytics

The Utah Jazz are on a path to retain their 2024 first-round pick.

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Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz

Since the trade deadline, the Utah Jazz have played their way out of a chance of post-season play. However, this doesn't mean Jazz fans shouldn't be keeping an eye on the standings.

Whether Utah retains its 2024 top 10 protected first-round selection hinges on whether they can finish in the bottom 10 of the NBA standings. If the season were to end today, the Jazz would be slotted in the ninth spot, but only two games would be removed from conveying the pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder this year. 

So, is Utah on a path to stay at the nine spot? ESPN analytics has Utah projected to finish the season at 6-11, which would keep them locked in at nine. This would give Utah a 4.5% chance of getting the No. 1 selection.

Utah is still in striking distance of getting up to the eighth spot, but they would need the Brooklyn Nets to finish the season stronger than expected. Utah is 2.5 games behind Brooklyn.

This is good news for fans who think it's in Utah’s best interest not to convey the pick this year. Despite the 2025 draft class being projected to be better than this year's class, social media is flooded with fans who want Utah to tank the last month of the season.

That said, the way the injury report has been looking lately, the Jazz could just let the season run its course and retain their pick since the trade deadline: Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, Keynonte George, and Taylor Hendricks have all missed multiple games. With Markkanen not in the running for an All-NBA selection this season, one has to wonder if Utah will ultimately shut him down for the season. 

Also, Utah will have a tough schedule the rest of the way. According to Tankathon.com, Utah has the third hardest schedule. The games that have huge implications regarding conveying this year's pick are Friday night’s contest against the Atlanta Hawks and a trio of games versus the Houston Rockets.

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