Jazz Post-Trade Deadline Playoff Odds Revealed by Analytics
Utah Jazz fans are getting a case of Deja vu after the 2024 NBA trade deadline. For the second straight year, Utah traded multiple players in the rotation without getting anything in return that could help them in the current year. The analytics team over at ESPN has taken note.
ESPN’s Power Index model now gives Utah a 9% chance of making the playoffs and only a 2% chance of making the second round. That’s a far cry from the 39% chance the Jazz were given to make the postseason on January 14.
Jazz fans may recall that last year, Mike Conley, Malik Beasly, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were shipped off before the trade deadline. Utah received no help in return in the current year and finished the season 10-17. The Jazz ended up missing the play-in tournament by two games.
This season, Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, and Simone Fontecchio rode off into the sunset. Although this trio was on the outside looking in regarding Utah’s long-term plans, it’s still a big blow to the Jazz fans and players who were emotionally invested in this season.
Utah had one of the deepest teams in the league, and unloading players for future draft compensation all but sealed its fate of making some noise in the postseason. To offset the losses, Jazz head coach Will Hardy reinserted Talen Horton-Tucker into the rotation, and rookie Taylor Hendricks received 18 minutes of playing time. Also, Walker Kessler was moved back into the starting lineup.
It’s frustrating for fans and players, but Jazz CEO Danny Ainge is playing the long game when it comes to roster decisions. The good news is that the moves should give the front office more intel on how to proceed in the future. How fast Hendricks develops will be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the year.
Ultimately, the Jazz will be looking to pair Lauri Markkanen with elite talent via trade using their stockpile of draft picks. The question moving forward is what position needs an upgrade.
From this point of view, Markkanen and Keynonte George are the only players who are 100% part of Utah’s future. After that, all bets are off.
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