The Jazz Benching John Collins May Ultimately Be the Best Decision

One common trend the Utah Jazz have followed this NBA offseason is surrounding the emphasis on adding size. Through the additions of Taylor Hendricks, John Collins, and most recently, Omer Yurtseven, the Jazz have brought together a nice collection of bigs and long, versatile athletes to diversify this team on both ends of the floor next season.

Through this added talent and depth, along comes some questions. Specifically, questions surrounding how the rotation will shake out for 2023-24. It’s obvious their 9th-overall pick of Hendricks is within the long-term plans of this team, but how soon will that come to fruition? Should Collins immediately get the nod to start over Hendricks due to his experience edge alone?

That might not be the worst route Will Hardy could go, and it could easily soon be a reality for Jazz fans. However, using Collins outside of the starting lineup might be more complimentary to this team next season.

Let’s take a look at what John Collins projects to bring to his new squad, and why I think he could be better served as a part of the second unit:

You don’t have to look too hard into Collins’s numbers to realize the past few seasons of his career have shown steadly decline. Why this drop has been so apparent may not be as obvious, but I might have found the secret to his lack of production, accompanied by how he can get back to his desired 2020 statistics.

Looking into his 2022-23 season, he put up close to career lows across the board. Through 71 games, he averaged 13.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.2 assists with a block a game. These aren’t abysmal numbers by any means, but you would like to see significantly more from a former 20 and 10 guy. Let’s take this a bit deeper though.

Look at the Atlanta Hawks’ roster construction since 2020. Two things that stand out, especially in the situation of John Collins: trading for Clint Capela and drafting Onyeka Okongwu. Both are players with heavy emphasis and value on the defensive side of the ball but are extremely limited on offense. This forces John Collins to compensate and play a completely different brand of basketball since entering the league.

Within the 41 games Collins played during 2019-20, he was stellar. He averaged 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, all on dependable efficiency (58/40/80). However, it was this season he was able to take his shots closer to the rim, had a more significant impact as a defender, and most importantly, played 48% of his minutes at center as opposed to the 8% he played this past season.

While developing Collins into that super high-ceiling, athletic stretch four would be ideal, these are extremely lofty and borderline unfair expectations.

Over the past three seasons in Atlanta, the Hawks have tried their hardest to transform Collins into a stretch big, spacing-heavy type of role. Every season since entering the league in 2017, JC has gradually begun to take shots farther and farther away from the rim. In return, his efficiency, as well as value, has plummeted.

For reference, in Collins’ peak season of 2020, 75.7% of his shots came from inside the arc, while 24.3% came from three. Last season, that percentage of three-pointers jumped to 33.9% of his overall shot selection.

Of course, this jump in quantity of threes would be merited if he was making more of them. The thing is, he isn’t. Trying to mesh Collins back into a frontcourt with another limited offensive center (Walker Kessler) would put Collins right back to where he was in Atlanta.

Instead, pairing him with a player with a better shooting ability like Kelly Olynyk or Taylor Hendricks would be much more complimentary to both Collins and the team as a whole.

Either of these players would give him an ideal option to pair next to in terms of spacing. Playing to Collins's strengths should be a priority of Will Hardy to get his career back on track in Utah. Trying to force the fit of him into the starting five might further stunt his growth.

Bottom Line:

Unless Walker Kessler enters next year as an outside threat showing that much-needed spacing on offense, I think Collins would be much better role with enhanced responsibility off the bench. On paper, Collins might be one of the best five players on this team, but the fit should be a more significant factor. Especially when seeing what hasn’t previously worked in his career, this is an idea for the coaching staff to consider.

If Collins walks in next year shooting above league average from three, throw this entire argument out the window. Until that day comes though, let’s use Collins in a role he’s able to be more comfortable and effective in to put him in the best position to succeed.

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