A Fixed NBA Lottery for the Utah Jazz Makes More Sense Than You Think

It’s a crazy concept. The NBA rigging a lottery in favor of the Utah Jazz isn’t typically an idea that would make sense. However, in the year of Wembanyama, anything is possible, and the NBA might actually have this all planned out ahead of time.

The league has had rumblings of a fixed draft lottery for decades now, even when the lottery was first introduced back in 1985. Then, the league was in a much different place than it is today. With financial troubles and a lack of public interest, it was clear a breath of fresh air needed to happen for the league to maintain its long-term success. Ultimately, this led to the infamous Patrick Ewing conspiracy to occur, leading fans to question the legitimacy of the entire event itself ever since.

This is with good reason too. To be fair, we don’t even get to see the official lottery balls get selected at the actual night of the lottery. We usually end up just seeing Deputy Commissioner, Mark Tatum, walk out with the teams conveniently placed in their respective envelopes. So, the idea of the league ever having a fixed lottery is absolutely on the table.

Let’s just take a look at some previous lottery history of some of the most recent generational prospects to take on the NBA:

2008, Derrick Rose: The Chicago Bulls jumped from the 9th-best odds (1.8%) to number 1 to select the hometown hero.
2012, Anthony Davis: The New Orleans Hornets jumped from the 4th-best odds (13.7%) to number 1
2014, Andrew Wiggins: The Cleveland Cavaliers jumped from the 9th-best odds (1.7%) to number 1 selecting who many dubbed as ‘Maple Jordan.’
2019, Zion Williamson: New Orleans jumped again, from 7th-best odds (6.0%) to number 1.

Point being, it seems like whenever there’s a potential generational prospect on the table, the favorites to land him really don’t seem to end up winning them. But, why? It wouldn’t make sense for the league to consistently have bottom feeder teams end up on the short end of the stick. That would be bad for league parity.

However, it might not be all that bad. Actually, it may be exactly what Adam Silver’s been trying to do for the past several seasons: fight against tanking.

We saw tanking on a pretty grand scale this year considering the stakes that were at hand. We even saw an anonymous GM come out later saying they wished they would have tanked harder this season for a better chance of Wemby.

“Honestly, I wish we wouldn’t have won so many games this year. We’re going to all regret not tanking every game to get this dude.”

- via an anonymous Western Conference executive,

per

Jonathan Givony of

ESPN

.

To put it short, the league needs to somehow de-incentivize intentionally losing games across an entire season. How could they do this? By rewarding the team that didn’t blatantly tank all season, despite not having a clear championship-level team: the Utah Jazz.

A number one selection by the Jazz would effectively send a very clear message to the NBA and its aspiring tanking franchises: even if you decide to throw away a season and tank for a year, nothing’s guaranteed in the lottery. Ultimately, this theory would have the hope of carrying some incentive for teams to be more competitive across the coming seasons.

However, then comes the inevitable question: Why would the league put their biggest prospect since LeBron in one of the smallest NBA markets? Considering the prestige of the prospect it seems like we’re in for this draft, it seems like that would be an overall negative for his marketability, right?

Well, that would be the case if the NBA was just watched strictly in the United States, but it’s not.

Basketball has increasingly become more and more global by the year, especially true considering Victor Wembanyama is French. Considering this, finding the best way to market him overseas, especially in France would be smart. From the NBA’s perspective, global brand expansion has become an absolute priority as of recent.

How to maximize this? Put Wemby on the same team that’s just one year removed from trading the biggest French basketball player since Tony Parker, Rudy Gobert. (Sure, I guess you could throw him in San Antonio where the better player actually played, but that doesn’t fit our hypothetical 'anti-tanking’ narrative).

We’ve seen other teams across history gain tremendous international followings solely based on their player’s country’s following. Yao Ming allowed not only the Houston Rockets, but the NBA to be widely recognized within China. Nikola Jokic has put Serbia on the map with the Denver Nuggets by winning his back to back MVPs. Putting Wembanyama with a team that’s had some significant previous ties to France could jumpstart his total following.

Let’s also not act like just because Wembanyama could be playing in Salt Lake City that fans wouldn’t be able to watch him. It's the National Basketball Association. Star talent is placed on a national showcase on a nightly basis despite not strictly playing in big market cities. Wemby is ultimately must see TV. No matter if he’s playing in New York or Charlotte, he will get fan recognition no matter what happens.

Just keep a close watch on how the Jazz end up moving around the board tonight. While this all could end up just being some insane conspiracy in hopes of coping with the fact that Victor likely won’t end up playing in Utah, it’s definitely fun to think about.

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