Ranking Potential First-Round Playoff Matchups for the Kings
The Sacramento Kings have had their ups and downs this season, ultimately fighting to a 33-24 record, sitting at 7th in the Western Conference with 25 games left to play. Led by the star tandem of De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings have proven they can compete with the best teams in the league, but they have also shown they can lose to anybody.
Despite being 3-0 on the year against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the Kings have inexcusably lost to the eight-win Detroit Pistons, the 15-win Charlotte Hornets, and the 15-win Portland Trail Blazers. Sacramento's inconsistency has driven fans insane while making them one of the toughest teams in the league to analyze.
The Kings constantly fluctuate between 5th and 8th place in the West, as just half of a game separates the four teams in the middle of the playoff picture. While Sacramento's priority is to dodge the Play-In Tournament, if they stay below the 6th seed, their main goal will be to get out of the Play-In Tournament.
The Kings will likely have to face a top-four seed in the first round of the playoffs, as there is a four-game gap between the 4th-place Los Angeles Clippers and 5th-place Phoenix Suns. With how the top four Western Conference squads are playing, it is unlikely any of them will slip up before the end of the season and give away their home-court advantage.
Here are the top teams the Kings would have the best chances against in the first round of the playoffs:
4. Los Angeles Clippers
While they sit at 4th in the conference, the Clippers are the scariest, most talented team in the West. Built around the superstar trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden, the Clippers would be the least ideal matchup for Sacramento in the first round.
The Kings were able to take down the Clippers on the road less than a week ago, but L.A. was missing George, and it is difficult to judge how a playoff series would go based on regular season results.
Leonard, a two-time NBA Finals MVP, is having his healthiest season since 2016-17, while George is having his healthiest year since 2018-19. After Harden forced his way off the Philadelphia 76ers and into the hands of the Clippers, most of the media was skeptical about how the trio would pan out, but any doubt has been resolved.
The Kings' lackluster defense would not be able to keep up with the Clippers' offensive star power and shooting ability. While Sacramento has proven they can compete with the Clippers, a seven-game playoff series could get ugly for the Kings.
3. Denver Nuggets
While the Kings are 3-0 against the Nuggets in their regular season series, Denver is a different breed in the playoffs. Regardless of the situation, no team should want to play the best player in the world in a seven-game series. The defending champs are led by reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic, who averaged 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists in the 2023 playoffs en route to his first NBA title.
Outside of Jokic, Denver has Jamal Murray, a star point guard who has proven to be one of the league's most unbelievable playoff performers. Denver has returned most of their championship lineup, but their only issue is that they are the only team at the top of the West that has not improved since last season.
Nonetheless, Denver is not the team Sacramento should aim to play in the first round, and the 3-0 regular season record does not tell the whole story of what would happen in a seven-game playoff series.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Despite being 1st place in the West, the Kings would be better off facing the Minnesota Timberwolves than the Nuggets or Clippers. Led by Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert, Minnesota is a talented squad, but the Kings could thrive off the Wolves' lack of shooting threats.
The Kings are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the three-point line, as facing a defensive-minded Minnesota squad could be beneficial to Sacramento's lackluster defense across seven games.
The Timberwolves bolster the league's top defense, but their lapses on the offensive end will reveal themselves more in the playoffs. While Sacramento lacks the size to properly match up against the Timberwolves, odds would be in their favor if they can get sharpshooters Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray to contribute at high levels on offense.
None of the matchups are ideal for Sacramento, but they would certainly have the opportunity to take down Minnesota.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
While the Oklahoma City Thunder are undoubtedly one of the most talented teams in the league, the Kings could have their most favorable matchup against them. Oklahoma City is led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 31.2 points per game, but their supporting cast has been utterly impressive.
The emergence of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren has catapulted the Thunder to the top of the Western Conference standings, but SGA remains the ultimate threat. Gilgeous-Alexander has feasted against Sacramento this season, averaging 38.0 points through three matchups, but has won just one of them.
Oklahoma City's playoff inexperience will likely not hold them back from a second-round appearance, but it will be notable enough to limit their Finals chances. The Kings are not the team to boast about their playoff experience, but matchup-wise, Sacramento could be the team to take down the Thunder.
The Kings will go as far as Fox and Sabonis can carry them, but Murray, Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, and Trey Lyles playing their parts will be the ultimate decider. After last year's disappointing first-round exit, the Kings will be hungry for the bigger picture this time.
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