What's 'Worst Case Scenario' for Magic Next Season?
ORLANDO - We’re in the thick of the NBA offseason, and although it’s fun for Orlando Magic fans to fantasize about winning an NBA Championship this season, let’s explore the worst-case scenario for the team in the upcoming season.
Injuries can derail any team’s season, but we won't be predicting any for players in this scenario.
Last year, the Magic recorded 34 wins and 48 losses. That’s a bottom-six record in the NBA despite being led by Rookie of The Year Paolo Banchero, who averaged 20 points per game. Of course, people would like him to continue ascending, but that isn't always the trajectory for Rookie of the Year winners.
However, in the case of Banchero, it's hard to foresee him taking a step back in year two after an offseason working with the U.S. FIBA World Cup team and other star players like Anthony Edwards. As such, his floor is likely that he just stays playing the same as he did his first season, and defenses force him to shoot from long distance more often, a weakness of his.
If Paolo continues to shoot under 30 percent from deep in his second season and cannot get into the lane as often, he could dip below 20 points per game average from a year ago.
A more realistic player that could take a step back is Markelle Fultz. Last season, he enjoyed a career year. Fultz averaged 14 points and 5.7 assists last season, but the team just drafted point guard of the future, Anthony Black, with the No. 6 pick, who could challenge him for minutes.
If Fultz's production goes down to about 11 points and five assists [his career average excluding last season], he’ll likely fall to the bench in favor of Black’s higher upside.
The issue with starting a rookie is that Orlando already has an experience deficit, so unless Fultz is on the court, there will likely be more growing pains and another rebuilding season that lacks a playoff appearance.
Speaking of experience, the absolute worst thing that the front office could do is keep the roster as it’s currently constructed. Far too many guards are on the roster, and not enough veterans to help establish the culture for the young Magic.
Keeping players like Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Cole Anthony would be a mistake after already having last year's starting backcourt and drafting guards in Black and Jett Howard. It guarantees that Orlando doesn't develop its young assets with minutes or leadership.
Should these events happen, the Magic will plummet to their floor for 2023, falling from a bottom six team to a bottom five team and still somehow losing in the NBA Draft Lottery. Then, the entire season will have been a waste of time and talent. Hopefully, things will go better for Orlando in real life.
