Heat vs. Magic: 3 Best Bets for Florida Showdown

The Orlando Magic is quickly establishing themselves as the best NBA team in Florida, snatching the title away from Pat Riley and the Miami Heat. The Heat has had much more recent success, but their seventh-place standing compared to Orlando’s fourth does not bode well for them. Tonight, Orlando hosts the Heat and has a chance for a statement win after losing two straight to the Boston Celtics.

Miami also comes into this matchup having lost their most recent contest, to the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are no strangers to adversity, having made the 2023 NBA Finals after narrowly squeaking out of the Play-In Tournament, but will be without Jimmy Butler and Dru Smith. RJ Hampton, Cole Swider, and Kevin Love are all questionable. The Magic is once again without Markelle Fultz and Kevon Harris, who are joined by Joe Ingles.

The Heat holds the best three-point percentage in the NBA, at an even 39 percent. Locking down the perimeter will be a must for Orlando’s defensive scheme. Conversely, Orlando is the fifth-worst three-point shooting team, so expect different offensive plans from both sides.

Check out the lines, odds, and our picks below, courtesy of SI Sportsbook.

The Lines

Point spread: Heat +4.5 (-105)/Magic -4.5 (-118)

Moneyline: Heat (+160)/Magic (-200)

Over/under: 219.5

Our Picks

Safe pick: Paolo Banchero OVER 21.5 points (-133)

Paolo Banchero has easily been the best player on the Orlando Magic this season, and he’s only been getting better. Over the last five games, he’s been the model of consistency, averaging 27.2 points on 47 percent shooting. With Jimmy Butler out, Bam Adebayo is the only positive defender the Heat have that can match up with Banchero, and he will have his hands full making sure Franz Wagner doesn’t get the ball.

Opponent pick: Tyler Herro OVER 22.5 points (-118)

Herro will have to go up one of the NBA’s best defenses, and he missed 18 games before coming back on Monday, but he did not miss a beat. In the loss to the Timberwolves, Herro scored 25 points despite making only one three. In the lone game Herro has played this season that Butler missed, he scored 22 points, but in 13 full games last season without Butler, Herro averaged 22.2 points. This season, Herro is settling for fewer threes and getting to the rim more, and his scoring has increased. He might barely scratch the over, but this bet should hit.

Gary Harris Ready For 'Tough, Hard-Nosed' Heat

No-fun pick: Franz Wagner UNDER 19.5 points (-118)

Franz Wagner is averaging a cool 20 points this season, but only 17 over his last five games, and is shooting a measly 13 percent from deep. With Adebayo down low for Miami, Wagner is likely to continue to jack up shots instead of attacking the midrange and paint, resulting in a lot of misses. Hopefully, we’re wrong, but Wagner has been trending down recently and the odds suggest that the under is a value pick.