Mavs' Best & Worst-Case Scenarios: Dorian Finney-Smith

Coming into a contract year, Dorian Finney-Smith is at a crossroads in the Dallas Mavericks organization. Will he take the next step in becoming a legitimate two-way player or will his shooting regress back to his early years?

After Luka Doncic signed his rookie super-max extension,  the typical keep-the-powder-dry Dallas Mavericks no longer had their coveted cap flexibility. … making the contract extensions on Dorian Finney-Smith all the more imperative.. 

To some, Finney-Smith doesn't pop off the page as anything special. Moreover, his stats certainly don't seem to equate to a professional basketball player with 202 career starts. Finney-Smith's career took off when the Mavericks began to tank, causing some to wonder if it was all a mirage.

A flash of intense defense or an athletic put-back dunk would occasionally present itself. Former Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle saw something in the undrafted, try-hard "over-aged" prospect. 

Finney-Smith's annual improvements stood as another example of Dallas making positive moves outside of the draft. Now the undrafted underdog sees himself in a contract season, potentially lining up to surpass his career earnings of $15 million in six seasons.

 What are the situations of which will spoil or guarantee a money-making offseason? DallasBasketball.com explains. 

Best-Case Scenario

He remains a crude ball-handler in the half-court, struggling to do much damage even in transition or attacking closeouts in a straight-line. Finney-Smith can use his solid first step and chiseled frame to get to the rim if a lane is there, but he has no real left hand, and is incapable of changing speeds or directions if the defense rotates in his direction. - Source: https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Dorian-Finney-Smith-6249/ ©DraftExpress

The previous quote, pulled from Draft Express aged like Betty White, nearing 100 years of age. Although Finney-Smith shows the capability of driving to the rim, notably against Defensive Player of the Year winner Rudy Gobert, most of the time he dribbles the ball, chaos ensues. 

It's telling seeing in a scouting report from five years ago thst Finney-Smith was a poor ball-handler … and that in our view hasn't overcome his incapacity there. Perhaps he capped out as a player without any adequate dribbling skills. 

With all this talk of Doncic needing to “trust his teammates,” it’s only fair for those teammates to step up when their superstar teammate struggles or sits. 

If Finney-Smith repeats his work from last season, money will indeed find the 3-and-(mostly)-D wing. However, if he shifts another gear by finding light as a self-creator, Doncic usage can be reduced, consequently earning the Dorian a bump in pay.

Last season, 80 percent of his made field goals came off assists. In a more revealing stat, 96 percent of his 3-point makes happened that way. Those stats aren't meant to belittle Finney-Smith, primarily due to how the team played so heliocentrically. Yet, it indicates how much Finney-Smith depends on others to find his looks.

Finney-Smith currently starts, but nothing is guaranteed. For Finney-Smith to further cement himself as a starter, it's imperative he somehow adds another skill. Ultimately, the best-case scenario for the undrafted wing is to gain any handle, leading to a more manageable load for Doncic. 

Worst-Case Scenario

Before Doncic arrived in Dallas, the Mavericks' role players didn't appear to be mainstays in the NBA. However, as the Slovenian star Luka shared his genius with the less-gifted, blue-collar players, Dwight Powell and Finney-Smith saw encouraging improvements. 

Last season, Finney-Smith converted an eye-opening 39 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. Although not an elite stat, the number represents growth. To appreciate last season's stats, look back at his earlier years. Finney-Smith shot below 30 percent from deep without Doncic's playmaking.

Aside from Maxi Kleber, Finney-Smith led the team in the 3-point attempt rate category at 64 percent. Even though we don't look at the long-limbed wing as a long-range gunner, the numbers indicate as much. Unfortunately, No.10 isn't off to a great start shooting the ball in light of his 1-6 mark from distance vs. the Atlanta Hawks. 

For a player as offensively limited as Finney-Smith, significant regression in efficiency mutes anything he brings defensively.  Doncic alongside shooters is what made this offense work the last three seasons. Despite Kidd's insistence on pushing a new philosophy on offense, there is enough evidence to show that the incumbent system works. 

However, any ongoing hiccups in the system will cause major changes - for instance, if Finney-Smith's 3-point shooting takes a considerable dip. 

The moment he stops producing on open looks, his role in the offense disappears. Finney-Smith's worst-case scenario is losing his efficiency from distance, ultimately causing a ripple effect in both his financial status and lineup alignment.