Mavs NBA Draft Lottery History Among Unluckiest All-Time
DALLAS — Ahead of Tuesday's NBA Draft Lottery, there is much anticipation around the league regarding which team will end up being the landing spot for top prospect Victor Wembenyama. With a talented class, becoming the next "lottery winner" could potentially have a drastic impact on the trajectory of a franchise.
After finishing with a 38-44 record with the help of a late-season tanking effort, the Dallas Mavericks hold the 10th-best odds of landing the 1st overall pick. After going from a Western Conference Finals appearance to missing the play-in tournament in the span of less than a calendar year, the Mavs are playing lottery.
The most probable outcome the Mavs face is a 65.9 percent chance of remaining at the 10th pick. The next most statistical likelihood for Dallas is a 20.2 percent chance of losing their first-round pick to the New York Knicks due to a top-10 protection on the final of two first-round picks traded in part of the Kristaps Porzingis deal in 2019.
The odds of the Mavs landing in the top four of the order is a combined 13.9 percent. Dallas faces a 3.3 percent chance of landing the 2nd pick, 3.6 percent chance of gaining the 3rd pick, and 4.0 percent odds of netting the 4th pick. Based on historical results, has luck typically been on their side?
When auditing the outcome of all, CBS Sports calculated the Mavs as being the second unluckiest team in the history of the lottery. Throughout the course of their involvement in the lottery, Dallas has experienced a -12 net loss in positioning.
The only team to experience a greater net loss in draft positioning after the lottery results occur is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Keep in mind, there were instances in which they had the worst record in the league and ultimately received the 1st pick. The Mavs are among three teams that have never moved up in the lottery.
Along with the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat, the Mavs are among the only teams in lottery history to never move up from their original position. However, Dallas has moved down on six instances — ranking tied for sixth among the most net occurrences of negative movement.
When calculating the average positive/negative movement a team has experienced in the NBA Draft Lottery, the Mavs have moved down an average position of 0.86. The only team to experience a worse average result is the Heat (-0.92).
If the Mavs get lucky, they can pair now four-time All-NBA First-Team recipient Luka Doncic with an elite prospect, retain Kyrie Irving in free agency, and reconfigure the rest of the roster using creative maneuvers. In the even of a disaster, Dallas could be at risk of Doncic souring on his situation, Irving remains a flight risk, and the front office faces a limited set of assets to work with.
It's safe to say, the potential ramifications of lottery luck are significant for the Mavs. It's not common that a team in win-now mode finds itself in such a position. Sometimes, the best way to fix a problem is to have luck on your side.
Grant Afseth is a Dallas Mavericks reporter for DallasBasketball.com and an NBA reporter for NBA Analysis Network He previously covered the Indiana Pacers and NBA for CNHI's Kokomo Tribune and various NBA teams for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. Follow him on Twitter (@grantafseth), Facebook (@grantgafseth), and YouTube (@grantafseth).
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