NBA Draft Expert: Mavs Should Select Duke’s Dereck Lively II with 10th Pick
DALLAS — The Dallas Mavericks have an important decision to make using the 10th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. With the need to use the selection to add a helpful talent to pair with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, if all goes according to their plan.
There are plenty of options at the Mavs' disposal using the 10th pick, whether they decide to stand pat and make a selection, or if they sought to trade it for a more established player in the form of a veteran. Given the future implications of a more restrictive Collective Bargaining Agreement, Dallas must at least consider adding a talent in the lottery to have on a rookie contract.
"I was going to ask you to give me the trade speculation, so maybe I add it to my board," Mavs general manager Nico Harrison told DallasBasketball.com after the NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago. "I don't know anything about the trade rumors. We got to look at every possible scenario, so we'll do that for sure."
When identifying a top option for the Mavs using the 10th pick, NBA Draft expert Rafael Barlowe of NBA Big Board recommended Dereck Lively II as an option during an appearance on "'Inside The Mavs' with Grant Afseth and Kevin Gray."
"If I'm Nico Harrison at number 10, I'm going with Dereck Lively," Barlowe said.
Lively is a 7-foot-1 center with a staggering 7-foot-7 wingspan, who played one season at Duke before declaring for the 2023 NBA Draft. He was a consensus five-star recruit in his high school class. He started 27 of 34 games for the Blue Devils and averaged 5.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks in 20.6 minutes per game. He shot 65.8 percent from the floor, 72.1 percent on 2s, 15.4 percent on 3s, and 60 percent on free throws.
Barlowe sees Lively as bringing the Mavs needed athleticism and defensive presence. For a team that gave up 116.1 points per 100 possessions (25th) and ranked last in total rebounding percentage (47.1%) in 2022-23, adding some dynamic element in those areas could go a long way in improving the team going forward.
"I know it's against the grain a little bit," Barlowe said. "I know that you look at the numbers and you say, 'well, this guy average three points per game. Why is someone that averages three points per game a top 10 pick?' But I would go with Lively because he provides what the Mavs need — some athleticism in the front court. He was a great shot blocker at Duke this year."
Lively wasn't a standout offensive player at Duke, but Barlowe sees his strengths as a vertical lob threat and play finisher as being harder more difficult to showcase in college basketball compared to playing with a playmaker like Luka Doncic in NBA spacing. Barlowe sees benefit for the Mavs' shooters since the defense would have to be more aggressive tagging the roller and making low-man rotations due to Lively being that vertical lob threat.
"He was the number one player in his class and for whatever reason offensively, he didn't stand out," Barlowe said. "There were times where he'd set a screen and not roll. But I think for a big man that's going to be like a vertical lob threat rim runner, college basketball is not the best place to showcase your skills there."
"I think with a guy, like with Luka in the [Mavs] spacing, I think he has the gravity to be able to suck defenses in with his hard rolls and his ability to stretch the floor vertically," Barlowe explained. "Which I think will help out the Mavs' shooters, but more importantly, on the defensive end where he is, like I said, a really good rim protector."
As confirmed by Harrison after the NBA Draft Lottery when asked by DallasBasketball.com, the Mavs view on-ball defense and rim protection as being specific needs to address this offseason. With a selection of a prospect like Lively, the goal would be to have addressed rim protection for the foreseeable future.
For the Mavs to use the 10th pick on a big man, there would ideally be further offensive upside than just being a vertical lob threat. Barlowe sees there being more to Lively's game than what many attribute as being his top strengths, including passing and shooting upside. For a team that faces aggressive doubles against Doncic that put the screener into short-rolls in addition to needing five-out ability against switching, both of those attributes are important in a center prospect.
"I think he's a very, very underrated passer and he had more assist and turnovers, which is rare," Barlowe said. "There are some point guards in this class — of course, they have a higher usage, but there are some guards in this class that had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. And if I'm not mistaken, I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, but I think it was either 12 or 14 more assist in turnovers [for Lively last season]. So I think he can make some, some good reads and passes in the short roll."
While attending the NBA Scouting Combine in Chicago, Barlowe had the chance to observe Lively's extra shooting work outside of the typical pro day environment. Lively would get in extra work with other Klutch Sports Group prospects late at night when the venue was available to be used, which Barlowe was still at the Wintrust Arena to be able to observe. Coupled with the shooting upside that Lively showed during his grassroots basketball career before Duke, Barlowe is intrigued.
"He had a Pro Day today where he shot the cover off the ball, and I didn't see like the actual footage, but I read that he made 14 threes in a row, which I'm not surprised," Barlowe said. "Because when I was in Chicago last week at the Combine, I was working and uploaded my podcast and the arena had really good wifi. So I'm in there like really, really late and every day, last week at about 11 o'clock. The group from Klutch would come in and they would just work out. They weren't doing like pro days. There weren't any scouts in there. Only people that were in the gym were the guys from Klutch, the security and the people that were cleaning up the arena. So I had a chance to just kind of peek over. And I saw that he could really shoot the ball.
"Now, he showed flashes of his shooting in his last year and in the grassroots circuit and in high school," Barlowe explained. "But at Duke, I think he took like 13 threes — maybe made like two out of 13. But the touch is there and I think best case scenario, he could end up being a floor spacer."
If the Mavs are willing to be patient and feel Doncic will follow suit, taking a high upside big man prospect like Lively sounds like an intriguing option. Perhaps he could add a needed element to the bench unit immediately as he develops before taking over a more prominent role, if all goes accordingly. For a team in major need of adding size, that could still be a beneficial outcome with long-term upside.
Grant Afseth is a Dallas Mavericks reporter for DallasBasketball.com and an NBA reporter for NBA Analysis Network. He previously covered the Indiana Pacers and NBA for CNHI's Kokomo Tribune and various NBA teams for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. Follow him on Twitter (@grantafseth), Facebook (@grantgafseth), and YouTube (@grantafseth).
Want the latest in breaking news and insider information on the Dallas Mavericks? Click Here. Follow DallasBasketball.com on Twitter and Facebook.
