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Reading too much into a one-game sample size over the course of an 82-game season is rarely a good idea.

As anyone who has watched the Toronto Raptors this season is well aware, this team can look as good or as bad as just about anyone on any given night. Can they contend with the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets? Sure. Maybe once or twice. Can they no-show against mediocre to bad teams? Well, we don’t need to rehash the story of the 2022-23 season quite yet.

But when it comes to evaluating how the Raptors will fair against the Chicago Bulls in Wednesday’s do-or-die play-in game, there’s really only one game to look at. Only once did these teams play at full strength this season with Jakob Poeltl in the lineup and the results were about as telling as any one game can be.

Toronto came away with the victory that Feb. 28 evening 104-98. The Raptors, unsurprisingly, couldn’t find any reliable shooting against a Bulls team that has ranked atop the NBA in Defensive Rating since the All-Star Break. The Raptors did, however, outshoot the Bulls 94 to 71 in terms of field goals thanks to 19 offensive rebounds and another 19 turnovers forced.

The key to the game, though, was Poeltl, the 27-year-old center who came over from San Antonio at the trade deadline. Poeltl didn’t put up gaudy numbers that night, just 14 points on 6-for-9 shooting, but he was solid, a plus-13 in 26 minutes.

“Obviously his screening is great, getting you open… and I think I probably score the most off the ball with him being out there and making the passes and cuts and things like that,” Pascal Siakam said of Poeltl following Tuesday’s practice.

The problem for Toronto that night was minutes without Poeltl. Precious Achiuwa was a minus-14 in his 12 minutes and Thad Young — who has since been jettisoned from the rotation — fared only slightly better.

So how are the Raptors feeling about their bench heading into Wednesday?

“My confidence level’s really high. They’ll be just fine,” Raptors coach Nick Nurse said Tuesday.

It probably helps to know that there’s not much of a choice for the bench. Toronto will almost certainly cut the rotation to just seven or eight players deep in the play-in tournament with Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, and Achiuwa filling in for limited minutes. Those minutes could be cut even shorter if any trouble arises.

As for Poeltl, it’ll help having had at least one game played in Toronto’s system against Chicago. That February evening may not have been an awe-inspiring performance, but it’s a point of reference for the 7-foot center.

“We play teams differently here than what I was used to with San Antonio,” Poeltl said. “A different tactical scheme might throw me off a little bit, especially early on in the game.”

So, how will Toronto fair this time around?

For the Raptors, it may well come down to the bench. Toronto’s starting lineup has been stellar in its minutes together, posting a +9.5 Net Rating with Poeltl and company on the floor together. Managing those bench units, though, has been a different story and a letdown from the second unit like the last time these teams met could prove critical this time around.

Further Reading

Raptors discuss slowing DeMar DeRozan & O.G. Anunoby's defense ahead of play-in game

O.G. Anunoby ends season as NBA's steals champion

Raptors discuss Scottie Barnes' sophomore campaign as Regular Season draws to a close