3-point Shooting Pendulum Swings Raptors Way as Series Evens

There might not be a better, more tactically savvy basketball coach in the NBA than Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse.

The 53-year-old Nurse has no trouble mixing and matching schemes, making adjustments, and doing whatever it takes to win games. It's why he won the 2019-20 NBA Coach of the Year award last month with 90 of 100 first-place votes.

But even the basketball genius himself understands that sometimes NBA games can be summed up pretty simply.

"It's a make or miss league," he said after Game 4. "We made a bunch of [3-pointers] tonight and they didn't make a bunch. Similar to the way the first two games went, where we didn't make any and they made a bunch."

In the first two games of the series, the Raptors shot 21-for-80 (26.3%) from 3-point range, compared to the Boston Celtics who shot 33-for-77 (41.6%) from deep. In those games, the Celtics' Marcus Smart, a 34.7% 3-point shooter during the regular season, was shooting 11-for-20 from 3-point range, while the Raptors guards struggled to make their 3s.

After those games, I wrote that the 3-point shooting disparity was bound to swing in the Raptors direction eventually. If it didn't Toronto wouldn't last much longer.

Turns out, Toronto didn't have to wait very long. Since Game 2, the Raptors are shooting 30-for-84 (35.6%) compared to the Celtics who have really dropped off, shooting just 16-for-64 (25%).

"The analytics guys will tell you this stuff balances out over time, right?" Nurse said. "When some of them are going in, I think it seems like the looks are a lot better."

Smart's red-hot start to the series has turned into 3-for-15 3-point shooting over the past two games. In Game 4, it was Jaylen Brown who couldn't seem to sink his 3s, shooting just 2-for-11 from behind the arc.

To some extent, it's just as simple as 3-point shots vary from game to game. But at the same time, the Raptors defence did a really great job contesting Celtics' 3s in Game 4. Pascal Siakam led the way, contesting 10 3-pointers, making life very difficult for Celtics shooters, who shot 2-for-13 on "tight" 3-pointers in which the closest defender was between two and four feet away from the shooter, according to NBA Stats.

Offensively, the Raptors looked much smoother at times compared to their previous three outings. Even with Marc Gasol remaining hesitant to shoot open 3s, he was able to create for others, assisting on four 3-pointers in the game, while the Raptors starting guards shot 9-for-21 from deep.

As Game 5 approaches on Monday, the series becomes a best two-out-of-three. The Raptors have momentum on their side, but 3-point shooting can be finicky and the rest of the series might just boil down to one thing: Who is making their 3-pointers?