Three Thoughts: Lowry, Stopping Kemba, and Game 7s

It's finally here.

After 25 years of avoiding each other in the playoffs, the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics will play a winner-take-all Game 7 tonight at 9 p.m. ET.

A quick recap of the series suggests the Celtics have a slight edge in the talent department. They blew out the Raptors in Game 1 and 5 and when they're clicking, they can get hot in a hurry. But what Toronto might lack in talent it makes up for in other ways. The Raptors have repeatedly come through in tight games, winning ugly, and showing that kind of champion's mindset that comes with experience.

On one hand, you could look at that and say talent usually rises to the top. If that's the case, the Celtics should close out the series tonight and advance to take on the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference finals. Yet, on the other hand, there's no more nerve-wracking game than Game 7, and this Raptors squad has been here before and persevered, so when the pressure rises, Toronto is unlikely to fold.

Here are a few things to look for tonight:

1. Kyle Lowry

The Raptors will go as far as Kyle Lowry will take them.

The 34-year-old Lowry has been the story of the series for Toronto and has erased any questions about his Hall of Fame candidacy. He's averaging 28.7 points in the Raptors' three wins this series while playing over 44 minutes in each of them.

When Lowry is on, it's usually pretty clear right from tipoff. He's averaging 10 points in the first quarter in Raptors' wins and just two points in Raptors' losses.

Kyle Lowry first quarter points in this series:
Game 1 Loss: 2
Game 2 Loss: 2
Game 3 Win: 11
Game 4 Win: 11
Game 5 Loss: 2
Game 6 Win: 8
— 𝐀𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐬𝐞 (@AaronBenRose) September 11, 2020

Prior to the Raptors' must-win Game 3, Lowry said he got a text message from a friend telling him to "stop waiting." After another crucial performance in Game 6, he credited Fred VanVleet for pushing him to keep attacking. Whether Lowry actually needs to be reminded of it or not, he holds the key to the Raptors' success in Game 7.

"We’ve had to fight really hard to stay in these games and scratch and claw our way to some wins," Raptors coach Nick Nurse said. "It’s right up his alley."

2. Stoping Kemba

Kemba Walker has given the Raptors' bigs problems for most of the series. He's scored 40 points on 27.2 partial possessions when either Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka are forced to defend him. That mismatch is why Nurse went to the smallball lineup to close out Game 6 in order to nullify the Celtics' pick-and-roll actions that were forcing Toronto's bigs to defend the speedy Walker.

Having found success with the lineup in Game 6, it makes a lot of sense for the Raptors to go back to it for stretches in Game 7, especially if Norman Powell is contributing. But, the Celtics will be prepared for that now, and it might be time for Nurse to make another adjustment, putting OG Anunoby on Boston's Daniel Theis while keeping either Ibaka or Gasol on the court defending Marcus Smart.

It's a risky move considering Smart's speed and ability to head up from 3-point range, but it would force the Celtics to find another way to free up Walker instead of just running two-man actions with him and Theis.

3. Game 7

Enjoy it.

It might be hard. If it's anything like Game 6, it'll be nerve-racking for both franchises, but these games don't happen very often, so enjoy it. Games like these are probably why you love sports.

"I think certainly this is kind of why you coach," Nurse said. "I’m not saying for a Game 7 in general. I’m just saying super-competitive, playoffs, a lot on the line. It’s kind of the crazy love of a coach to want to be in the middle of that, putting yourself through that. That is kind of the love of coaching and love of competition."

This is just the seventh Game 7 in Raptors' history.