Suns-Mavericks: Four Prop Bets to Make for Game 6

The Suns and Mavericks are sure to provide more fireworks when Game 6 gets underway. Here's some prop bets to consider prior to tip-off.

Author:
Logan Bell
May 12, 2022 12:00 PM EDT

In this story:

Phoenix Suns

Dallas Mavericks

The Phoenix Suns are just one win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals, and that victory could come in Dallas when they meet the Mavericks for Game 6 Thursday evening.

After dropping their previous two games, the Suns answered with an emphatic 110-80 win over Dallas on Tuesday. The Mavericks were held to their lowest scoring output of the playoffs as Phoenix avoided losing three games in a row for the first time all season.

Now, the chips are stacked for Phoenix to shut Luka Doncic and company down for good. The Suns are 4-0 in their last four closeout games on the road.

It's a perfect time for Phoenix to advance to the next round, and it's an even better time to make some money during the game.

After scouring the books and running the numbers, here's four prop bets you should consider taking for Game 6 of Suns-Mavericks.

*Note: All totals and odds are up to date at the time of publish. These are subject to change prior to tip-off*

Suns-Mavericks: Four Prop Bets for Game 6

You don’t have to look very hard at the numbers to see Suns guard Chris Paul hasn’t been the player we’re accustomed to seeing since his fourth quarter eruption in Game 2.

The Mavericks have taken away his patented elbow jumper in hopes to contain his scoring. Although his assist numbers have risen in the last two games as he figures out the Dallas defense, we’ll be targeting another area of Paul’s game.

Chris Paul OVER 4.5 Rebounds (FanDuel -128):

Chris Paul has gone OVER 4.5 rebounds in 4 of 5 games this series.
-He has totaled 5, 6, 7, 5 and 2 rebounds
He has gone OVER 4.5 rebounds in 6 of his last 7 and 7 of his last 9 games against Dallas
-Includes 5 rebounds in only 23 foul-plagued minutes in Game 4
Paul averages 10 rebound chances on the road this series, compared to 8 chances at home
-His road average increases to 12 rebound chances per 36 minutes when adjusting for his 23-minute Game 4
Chris Paul is grabbing 56% of his rebound chances this series

It’s becoming abundantly clear that the Mavericks’ role players prefer to shoot in their home court as opposed to the Valley. In Games 3 and 4, Dallas showed off their perimeter shooting on their way to tying up the series at two games apiece.

However, in Game 5, the Mavericks shooters went cold in what was a herculean effort by the Suns defense. The series goes back to Dallas for Game 6 and we will be targeting one shooter that has thrived at home.

Dorian Finney-Smith OVER 11.5 Points (FanDuel -110):

Finney-Smith is OVER 11.5 points in 5/6 games at home this postseason
-OVER 11.5 in 3 of 5 games this series

Finney-Smith has been more active on offense at home this postseason
-11.4 field goal attempts per game compared to 8.3 attempts on the road
-Shooting 45.5% from three at home and 39.4% on the road
Fully expect Finney-Smith to be more aggressive this game and hit the double-digit figure in shot attempts after only taking 6 shots last game
-DFS has gone OVER 11.5 points in:

21 of last 25 games at home with 10+ FGA
19 of last 25 games and 14 of last 17 with 10+ FGA regardless of location
17 of last 22 games with 9+ FGA
5 of 5 career games vs Phoenix with 9+ FGA

Reggie Bullock was hobbled in Game 5, potentially creating more opportunities for Finney-Smith

In an interview with the former shooting star J.J. Redick, Doncic spoke about the development of his step-back three-point shot, a move that wasn’t in his arsenal until he reached the NBA. If this series is your first time tuning into a Mavericks game, then you’ve seen Doncic is not shy to go to this move.

In fact, Doncic has pulled from behind the arc 35 times in the five games with 31 coming off the dribble. Despite the barrage of step-backs, the Suns have limited his effectiveness from deep after watching him drain nine three-pointers in the first two games of the series.

Luka Doncic UNDER 3.5 Three Point Field Goals (FanDuel -108):

Phoenix has chased over screens to force Doncic into the dropping big, usually Ayton, or switched the screen
-On switches, Doncic has posted up smaller defenders (Paul, Shamet) or stepped back against the Suns big men (Ayton, Biyombo) for long jumpers or three pointers
-This series Doncic is 5/20 (20%) when attempting a three over 6’11” Ayton (3/13) or 6’8” Biyombo (2/7)
Doncic has gone UNDER 3.5 in the last 3 games vs Phoenix
-Shooting 5/25 (20%) in Games 3-5
-Made 2, 1, and 2
Doncic has gone UNDER 3.5 in his last 5 playoff games at home
-Shooting 9/43 (20.9%)
-Totaled 1, 2, 3, 2, and 1
Has gone UNDER this number in 15 of 18 career games against the Suns

Like many of Dallas’ role players, Jalen Brunson waited until the Mavericks return home to make his presence felt in the series. In Games 3-5, Brunson averaged 22.3 points per game after scoring 22 total points in the first two games. Brunson also was a more accomplished play-maker for Dallas, amassing series-highs with five and four assists.

While Doncic is the main creator for the Mavericks, we’ll look to Brunson to make the most of his opportunities in a must-win game for Dallas.

Jalen Brunson OVER 7.5 Rebounds+Assists (Draft Kings -105):

Jalen Brunson has gone OVER 7.5 R+A in his last three games
-Finished with 9, 8, and 9
-Has 7+ R+A in all 5 games of the series
Brunson has gone OVER 7.5 in 5/5 home games during the playoffs
-12, 13, 9 against Utah, 9 & 8 vs Phoenix
Averages 10 rebound chances for the series
-10.8 chances at home for playoffs, only 8.7 on the road
Only 6 potential assists in games in Phoenix, jumps up to 9 at home
Phoenix has let him play in iso, letting him get two feet in paint consistently
-Can create kick out opportunities to shooter for assists
-Dallas could see instant positive regression after poor shooting in Game 5