Column: Thunder Preview and Predictions Ahead of Opening Night
Oklahoma City tips off on Wednesday night in Chicago after what has felt like the longest offseason of all time. The Thunder didn't make many moves besides selecting Cason Wallace in the lottery and taking on Davis Bertans in the process. The real piece to the offseason was developing its already impressive core.
Oklahoma City seems like the preseason darling of the NBA, and rightfully so. Nobody thinks this team is ready to win it all or compete for a championship quite yet, but people clearly think the Thunder is the team of the future. In this story, I'll trey to breakdown a few narratives to follow throughout the season and what to expect from individual players. First, let's start with some predictions:
Record: 48-34
Playoffs: Second round exit
All-Stars: SGA
PPG Leader: SGA
APG Leader: Josh Giddey
RPG Leader: Chet Holmgren
SPG Leader: SGA
BPG Leader: Chet Holmgren
Breakout Player: Aaron Wiggins
Most Underrated Player: Jaylin Williams
Oklahoma City has a chance to be a true playoff team, and not just a play-in team. A five-seed slot this year with playoff basketball back in Oklahoma City seems feasible. The Thunder’s starting five will be its best lineup by a wide margin, but the bench is legitimately deep.
The most likely scenario, is the Thunder start out slower than expected and pick up in a big way around Christmas time. Integrating Chet Holmgren into the lineup could take time. This team played without a center for the majority of last season. When it starts to click, though, it has a chance to be really special.
It's fair to expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to hover around 29-31 points per game for the second season in a row and firmly establish himself as a top ten player in the NBA. He should be in the MVP conversation for the next 6-to-7 years. His outside shot could improve even if his free throw attempts dip slightly. SGA could truly be one of the faces of the NBA heading into this new era.
Chet Holmgren will be an absolute difference maker. I don’t think he’ll have the offensive juice to hang with Victor Wembenyama for the Rookie of the Year award, but contrary to popular belief, there's legit value in a Defensive Player of the Year bet. It would be an unheard of feat in year one, but he’ll have an outside shot. Based on Summer League action and the preseason, it's hard to see a world where he averages less than 2.0 blocks per game. As crazy as it sounds, averaging more than 2.5 blocks is a real possibility.
Josh Giddey’s assist total should take off this season. Having a pick-and-roll threat and continuing to build chemistry with J-Dub will be huge this season. There's evidence to expect a pretty big bump in efficiency this season. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the conversations and tone surrounding Giddey were much different next summer. He's a special player.
The Jalen Williams hype is real. OKC is clearly trying to get him the ball on offense and the preseason returns were positive. If he can maintain is offensive efficiency, he could be the Thunder’s No. 2 down the line — maybe this year. His defensive improvement was noticeable throughout the year, and he has the tools to be a two-way force. Williams, in my opinion, has the best chance to be the Thunder's second star.
Lu Dort is going to have to cement his role this season and find out how to fit into the core offensively. He must find a way to be efficient to stick in OKC long term. Smarter drives to the rim and eliminating early shot clock triples will help. After watching last season and throughout FIBA action with Team Canada, it's hard to see him taking a big jump. His defense will always be valuable, but the trajectory doesn't seem to be trending upwards like other players on the roster. With Dort, you know what he brings to the table by now.
Another storyline to follow will be the trade market. Obviously, Oklahoma City will be in a prime position to make any trade it wants over the next five years. Personally, I don’t think the Thunder add any big names via trade this year. Next summer is the spot to watch. It doesn't seem like management is quite ready to put any crazy expectations on this young core quite yet. The Thunder want to win games, certainly, but want to develop players while doing it. That might mean playing Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski through struggles, or carving out time for Cason Wallace.
If I had to guess, Vasijile Micic, Jaylin Williams, and Isaiah Joe will be the three most consistent players off the bench in terms of minute distribution.
It seems like Mark Daigneault likes the idea of having another ball handler in Micic, especially when Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey are on the bench. Joe unequivocally brings more value than someone like Bertans because of his ability to play defense and the fact that he does more than just shoot 3-pointers. J-Will has a chance to be one of the better backup bigs in the league and fully knows his role. He understands what the Thunder needs him to do and is the ultimate team player. It seems like a fair bet to see those three on the court most nights.
Ousmane Dieng will get a chance to play heavy minutes, but it's hard to tell if he’s ready just yet. The Thunder seem poised to let him play through his struggles an focus on his development, but towards the end of the season could pivot a bit. When games become important down the stretch, the team might rely on Kenrich Williams more than people think.
Aaron Wiggins could be a player to see an uptick in minutes. It felt like the Thunder knew what to expect from him a season ago and wanted to learn a bit more about other players. He's a do-it-all wing/guard hybrid and fits in seamlessly on both ends of the floor. His presence on the floor is good for the Thunder no matter what.
By the end of the season, it's fair to expect Cason Wallace cracking the rotation. Not right away, though, He could struggle to fit in offensively and try to do too much, as he adjusts to the NBA pace of play. His hoops I.Q. is too high to stay on the bench for long though.
Lastly, the lineup, outside of the top-8 players will likely be fluid game-to-game. Tre Mann could end up playing a bigger role than expected if he displays consistency catching and shooting. Pokusevski could add a wrinkle into the Thunder's game plan with his defensive prowess if he can play under control. There are many variables here.
Like last year, I think the Thunder will roll with the hot hand often and the entire bench should be ready when their number is called. The luxury of going through a grueling roster trim is making it to the finish line when everyone can play. And that means everyone will get a shot to play at some point during the season.
