Rotational Ripple: Projecting OKC Thunder Point Guard Minutes
The Oklahoma City Thunder are due for a rotational ripple.
With the Thunder onboarding four rookies, including three Top 12 selections, the organization is due for a shuffled deck in the rotation. After the waiving of forward Isaiah Roby in July, the franchise holds a standard roster of 18, three spots above the league maximum. Upon the franchise’s duo of two-way signings and pair of Exhibit-10 additions, they currently hold a roster of 22 – exceeding the training camp maximum of 20.
In preparation for the 2022-23 season, roster turnover is a given for the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, their tip-off time will help show their finished product from the offseason.
Throughout the week on Inside The Thunder, I will be assessing what I imagine will be the Thunder’s opening rotation for the regular season.
For the purposes of future articles on the topic, Josh Giddey will be listed as a shooting guard based on the franchise’s starting lineups during the 2021-22 season.
Additionally, these minutes will be solely based on my projections for the Thunder’s day-one rotation. As showcased in years prior, the franchise has altered rotational minutes based on performance and injuries, accordingly. While changes are to be expected, these minute allocations will not take into account potential injuries or forthcoming rotational adjustments.
Here is the breakdown of the Thunder’s projected point guard rotation:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 35 Minutes
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have found their future pillar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Since being dealt by the Los Angeles Clippers in the 2019 offseason, Gilgeous-Alexander has blossomed from a Swiss-Army sidekick to being the Thunder’s rock on the offensive end.
As the league leader in drives the past two seasons, Oklahoma City has conformed its play around the 24-year-old’s knack at attacking the basket. Gilgeous-Alexander has starred in the halfcourt, primarily navigating through high-ball screens to penetrate towards the basket for interior attempts or kick-out passes to the perimeter.
While the Thunder have incoming talent in the backcourt, it would be unwise to shed minutes from a star in Gilgeous-Alexander for the sake of development, especially to begin the regular season.
Across three seasons with the Thunder (161 games), Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 34.5 minutes. Last season, the guard logged 24.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists across 56 appearances.
Gilgeous-Alexander maintains his role as the minute leader for the 2022-23 season as his elite slashing ability combined with his 6-foot-6 frame make him a versatile star for the franchise.
Tre Mann - 22 Minutes
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Based on the backend of last season, it’d be reasonable to suggest that Tre Mann would be netting minutes nearing the mid-to-upper 20s. However, due to an assortment of potential lineups in the backcourt – Mann’s minute output is likely to start in the lower 20s to begin the regular season.
Mann is the quintessential microwave scorer for the Thunder. As the presumptive sixth man in the rotation, his ability to score from distance, both on-and-off ball, make him a versatile piece to pair alongside either of Gilgeous-Alexander or Josh Giddey. Additionally, his ability to create plays in isolation allows him to take over games, resulting in larger minute totals.
Last season, Mann climbed the ranks, posting averages of 10.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists across a 22.8-minute palate.
Theo Maledon - Inactive / Fringe Roster
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Theo Maledon will be one of multiple guards vying for not just an opportunity in the rotation, but a roster spot in general.
As the Thunder’s minute leader as a rookie, Maledon lost his foothold in the rotation, sliding out of the active rotation and into stints with the Oklahoma City Blue in the mid portions of the season. Upon injuries, Maledon resurged as a bench piece, averaging 14.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in his last 10 games with the organization.
Maledon is still very much an NBA-caliber prospect. At age 21, some of his initial luster has been worn, however, his smart pick-and-roll decision-making and spurts of off-ball success pin him as a player who may still have gas left in the tank.
Ty Jerome - Inactive / Fringe Roster
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Ty Jerome joins Maledon in the category of players who have yet to stamp a roster spot, even more so a place within the rotation.
Jerome showed major promise in his first season with the Thunder. Following an ankle injury and his subsequent month-long stint for the Blue, Jerome was a premier off-ball piece, averaging 10.7 points on a 42.3% clip from distance.
Last season, Jerome dropped off from deep range, dropping to a 29.0% output on threes. While his year was cut short due to injury, he was rather inconsistent in his run.
Jerome is very much in the roster race as his resume of sharpshooting ability, coupled with his elite decision-making ability in the halfcourt, do give him some clear positives. The largest hurdle will be his impending free agency, notably the $6.2 million Qualifying Offer looming in the summer.
Next up, I will be breaking down my take on shooting guard minutes.
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