Thunder’s Playoff Hopes Could Be Dashed by Tie-break Procedures

Try envisioning a scenario where, at the end of the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the same exact record as the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans. In this fictional reality, the Thunder would have the 11th seed, just missing the Play-In Tournament while the Mavericks and Pelicans enjoy the 9th and 10th seed, finding themselves competing in the Play-In.

What a nightmare for Oklahoma City’s fans, right? Well, it could happen.

According to the NBA’s “playoff tie-break procedures,” the basis for breaking a multi-way tie starts with a question: Is one of the team’s a division leader? If so, the division leader would earn the ninth seed outright. But since none of the teams in question are division leaders, then you move on to the next basis: head-to-head won-lost percentage.

Now, what does that mean? In simple terms, if one team has a better win percentage against the other two teams in this scenario than any one of those teams has against the other two, then that would break the tie.

For example, if the Thunder went 5-2 against the Pelicans and Mavericks, and the Pelicans went 4-3 against the Thunder and Mavericks, and the Mavericks went 3-4 against the Thunder and Pelicans, then the Thunder’s head-to-head record would be best, earning them the ninth seed. The Pelicans would earn the 10th seed and the Mavericks would be just outside of the Play-In.

Switching back to reality, the Pelicans, Thunder, and Mavericks are currently making up the ninth, 10th, and 11th seed in the Western Conference, and in that order. In fact, both the Thunder and Mavericks are tied with a record of 36-38 and sit a game behind the Pelicans who hold a record of 37-37.

If a multi-way tie were to occur between those three teams, the Pelicans would win the first tiebreaker due to their combined 5-3 record against the Thunder and Mavericks. And since the Mavericks and Thunder have both earned a 3-4 record for tiebreaker purposes, the next basis to break the tie is their respective winning percentage against conference opponents. Here, the Mavericks’ 27-23 record bests the Thunder’s 22-25 record and that isn’t likely to change.

To add even more intrigue to the West’s jumbled Playoff picture, since the tie-breaker procedures are very different if only two teams’ records are tied, the Thunder have already secured a tiebreaker against the Mavericks. This is because the Thunder have won two out of their three matches with the Mavericks this year and aren’t scheduled to play again.

And to make things even more interesting, the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves are also tied with the Pelicans, but currently hold the eighth and seventh seeds, respectively.

So with only eight games left to play before the conclusion of the regular season, it’s easy to see how a multi-way tie could actually pan out. Is it even possible that a four-way tie could happen?

Want to join the discussion? Like SI Thunder on Facebook and follow us on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest Thunder news. You can also meet the team behind the coverage.