Can Chet Holmgren Win the Rookie of the Year Next Season?

Having missed the entirety of his first year being drafted, Chet Holmgren will be eligible to win the Rookie of the Year award in the 2023-24 NBA season. With that, the 2023 NBA Draft will bring Holmgren’s competitors for the award.

However, being close enough to the draft to know who is drafting in what position, Holmgren has an idea what situation’s he might be facing as he runs for the Rookie of the Year.

First off, there’s Holmgren’s potential to be in the running for the award. He’s unlikely to be one of the top shooting options for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They’ve got an All-NBA First Team player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a Rookie of the Year runner-up this year in Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey, who has taken strides in his offensive game this season.

So, already, Holmgren will have usage against him, as he won’t consistently be amongst the most shot attempts per game. This can be a good thing, though, as the Thunder will do their best at being a competitive team in doing so. With a Play-In Tournament spot or playoff spot finish in this next season, Holmgren would be able to have that on his resume as he will likely contribute plenty as a floor stretcher and elite defender.

Holmgren’s best-case scenario for his Rookie of the Year case will be efficient offensive play and versatile defensive play that catapults the Thunder into a position to slide into the playoffs.

For his top competitors, Victor Wembanyama comes to mind. The San Antonio Spurs won the top pick in the NBA draft. Wembanyama, who has been said to be the best prospect in team sports history, is the hard favorite to be the top pick in the NBA draft.

Wembanyama is essentially a Spur and fans can safely order customized jerseys. They’re also going to build around him for the next decade, and they’ve got a decent supporting cast for his first year, which will allow him to come in and put up big numbers, even if the team doesn’t win too many games.

This draft is top-heavy in the sense that both Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, expected no. 2 pick in the draft, are locked in as the top-two talents in the draft. So, the race could essentially end up being a three-man race between Holmgren, Henderson and Wembenyama.

Henderson isn’t guaranteed to be the second pick, but that’s not because he’s not the second-best player. Brandon Miller is a better fit for the Charlotte Hornets, who are the own the pick, but he’s not the second-best prospect in the draft. Henderson is essentially in his own tier of talent below Wembanyama. Either way, whichever team Henderson lands on, he’s going to be allowed the ball and the shot attempts to put up numbers, which is a good case for players to win the Rookie of the Year award.

Holmgren will likely come in as the second-favorite to win the award behind Wembanyama, but considering the hype and situation Wembanyama will be in compared to Holmgren, it’s looking like the Thunder could have a second straight runner-up for the Rookie of the Year award.

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